Saturday, January 16, 2010

American Research Group Poll Brown Up by 3 - Nailbiter

Linked by Stacy McCain at The American Spectator.  Thank You and welcome Spectator readers!
H/T: Hot Air Headlines
American Research Group has a poll of 600 likely voters in Massachusetts conducted between January 12-14 showing Scott Brown with a 3 point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley.  Here is a breakdown of the results"

The poll has a margin of error of 4 points which points to the likelihood the race this Tuesday will be a nailbiter.  I think we expected that already.  Here are a few highlights from the results:
  • Brown leads 58 to 37% among Independent voters
  • Brown leads 54 to 39% among men while Coakley has a narrower lead among women 50 to 44%.
  • 9% of likely voters have already voted by absenteee.  Among those voters Brown leads 58 to 42, wow.
  • Brown holds a sizable lead among younger voters 52 to 42 while Coakley has a 1 point lead among voters 50 and older.  
The smaller sample size leads to a higher margin of error.  Brown has substantial leads over Coakley among Independents and among younger voters.  Brown is taking 20% of registered Democrats while Coakley gets only 1% of the registered Republicans.  This all bodes well for Brown.

 One concerning point is Coakley's slim lead among older voters.  I would suggest there is a significant difference between the 50-64 age group and the over 65 group.  Those over 65 could be greatly impacted by the cuts to Medicare whereas the 50-64 age group might see those cuts as preserving Medicare as they approach the age for enrollment.  I would be interested in seeing if the over 65 group was inclined to support Brown over Coakley.

Clearly Democrats must be nervous, but Democrats don't nailbite they call in the Cavalry.  The Other McCain who is reporting from the ground in Massachusetts linked a disturbing anecdote reported at DaTechGuy's Blog:
For example at the Bill Clinton event in Worcester at the end while I waited for my son to attempt to get the president autograph (in vain) I stood quietly next to some much better dressed men from the Coakley Campaign who were apparently talking to Union guys from out of state. The gist was that the “Cavalry was coming” and they talked with the quiet confidence of gamblers who know which boxer is going to take a dive.
Michelle Malkin warns the purple army "marches on Massachusetts."   I hope the GOP has learned a lesson from the Coleman/Franken race, get some lawyers to Masssachusetts and challenge everything.

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