Fitzpatrick winning by 17000 - UPDATE: Fitzpatrick Wins!!!!!!!!!!

Actually, Pennsylvania was a big winner tonight:

Those dark red areas represent 5 House seats picked up from Democratic incumbents, what a night.  In addition, Bucks County voted decisively for a Republican Governor and Senator:

Fitzpatrick, Toomey and Corbett all won the district by the same margin(approximately) as Barack Obama won it in 2008.  Congratulations to all who worked so hard to make this happen.  It was thrilling to be there on election day to meet my new Senator and watch my new Congressman give his acceptance speech:

It absolutely pays to get involved.

More when I have had a chance to get some sleep!
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Keepers of Madame Thenardier's Zoo

They could have been masters of the House instead they have proven to be keepers of the zoo "ready to relieve you of a sou or two:"

Every year since 2007, the Democratic advantage in the House has been fewer than the number of seats held by Blue Dogs: If they had wanted to, the Blue Dogs could have made themselves masters of the House. They could have held an effective veto over any bill they pleased, insisting that Mrs. Pelosi, Majority Leader Harry Reid and even President Obama himself heed their call for fiscal responsibility.

Instead, the Blue Dogs became Mrs. Pelosi's lap dogs, voting with her 80% of the time on economic issues. Every one of them voted for the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Sixty-three percent voted for the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program; 91% voted for the stimulus package in February 2009; 85% voted for the cash-for-clunkers program; 74% voted for President Obama's debt-tripling 2010 budget; 73% voted for the auto bailout; and 54% voted for the federal takeover of health care.

The evidence is overwhelming: The Blue Dogs are not fiscal conservatives, and only a few can credibly claim even to be fiscal moderates.

I can think of one who voted for all of it yet still claims to "stand against his party when they are wrong."   Madame Speaker has plenty of "lap dogs" keeping her zoo.  Everybody raise a glass this November to the masters of the House:



Apologies in advance to those who will suffer from the George Costanza  earworm after reading this post.

Rats can't swim

Rat leaving Patrick Murphy's sinking ship:

Former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel has chosen Scott Fairchild, the chief of staff for Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.), to manage his campaign for mayor of Chicago, POLITICO has learned.

Fairchild agreed to lead Emanuel's Chicago bid earlier this week, before President Barack Obama's Friday announcement that he was losing his top aide, sources familiar with situation said. He plans to start in Chicago after the Nov. 2 midterm elections.

Considering that Nate Silver Larry Sabato and Real Clear Politics all have Murphy's race leaning Republican, Scott Fairchild must be seeking higher ground. It remains to be seen whether Rahmbo's race is any more seaworthy than Murphy's. For now though, it doesn't appear to be quite as doomed at least.

With Murphy informed, Fairchild will help Rahm as he launches a "listening tour" through Chicago neighborhoods hoping to get honest feedback from Chicagoans about the state of their city.

Rahm's gain appears to be a big loss for the Murphy reelection campaign:

Fairchild has served as Murphy's chief of staff since 2007, after joining his team in May 2006. He does not have any Chicago background, but is credited with leading a skilled get-out-the-vote effort that put Murphy over the top in 2006.

Fairchild is "by far one of the best managers out there," according to Adrienne Elrod, who worked at the DCCC in 2006.

"Scott is extremely competent and is politically savvy in every sense of the word. Like Rahm, he's a fast thinker and mover," said Elrod, who is now Rep. Loretta Sanchez's top aide, when informed of the move. "With Scott's street smarts no stone will go unturned."

Fairchild will be a loss for Murphy, an Iraq war veteran who had a speaking role at the 2008 Democratic Convention in which he introduced military veterans who were running for Congress

All that savvy and he can't save Patrick Murphy's tarnished star, tsk tsk.  Holy Mackerel - or Holy dead Asian carp as it were - it's amazing what passes for talent these days in the Democratic party.

Via Memeorandum

Desperate Measures: Patrick Murphy releases a purple people eater poll

Desperate times  my friends lead to incredibly desperate measures:

"Service Employees International Union (SEIU) and Vote Vets Action Fund released a poll today showing Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy leading Republican Mike Fitzpatrick among likely voters by 49 percent to 46 percent, with 5 percent undecided. Murphy enjoys an even wider lead among more likely voters. Among the 87 percent of respondents who say they will “definitely vote,” Murphy holds a 50 percent to 45 percent lead. Among the 75 percent of respondents who actually voted in the last mid-term election in November 2006, Murphy’s lead expands to 52 percent versus 44 percent for Fitzpatrick."

Notice that the poll shows Murphy's lead magically expanding as respondents are narrowed to likely voters.  Not only is this diametrically opposed to all the trends in voter enthusiasm across the county, it is precisely the opposite of the findings of only independent measure of the race thus far:

Still, the most recent 6ABC-Franklin and Marshall College Poll has Murphy behind 46-36 percent among registered voters.

And it's even worse news for Murphy among likely voters who have the challenger leading 49-35 percent.

Murphy criticized the findings of the Franklin and Marshall poll relentlessly yet expects the public to accept the findings of a poll bought and paid for by the SEIU without hesitation.  Riiiiiiiiiiiight, maybe that will happen after we find out what is in that health care bill and fall hopelessly in love with it.

Fitzpatrick leads Murphy by 14 in PA08

If Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District is truly the bellwether pundits predict, Democrats are in trouble:

• In the 8th congressional district, Mike Fitzpatrick has an advantage over incumbent Patrick Murphy among all registered adults, 46% to 36%, with about one in five (17%) adults still undecided. Fitzpatrick’s advantage is larger among those more likely to vote, 49% to 35%, with 15% undecided. The survey finds that Fitzpatrick’s advantage increases as the likely voter screen becomes more restrictive.
• Two in five (41%) registered adults in the district rate Representative Murphy’s job performance as “excellent” or “good.” About the same proportion (40%) believe he deserves re-election while almost half (47%) believes it is time for a change.
• In the PA senate race, Pat Toomey leads Joe Sestak in the district among all registered adults, 39% to 30%, and among likely voters, 42% to 32%. In the gubernatorial race, Tom Corbett leads Dan Onorato among registered adults, 37% to 29%, and among likely voters, 40% to 30%. Many registered adults in the 8th CD are still undecided about their choices for US senate (30%) and governor (34%).
• Unemployment and the economy (57%) are the primary issues facing respondents and their families in the district. The positive job performance rating for President Obama (37%) is low in the district, but is similar to his overall state-wide ratings. Governor Rendell’s positive job performance rating (46%) is higher than the President’s in the district and is also higher than his overall state-wide rating.

The most stunning take from this poll is the degree that Barack Obama is an albatross around Patrick Murphy's neck.  Murphy is not weighed down by Obama unfairly, however.  His voting record is testimony to Murphy's commitment to the Obama/Pelosi/Reid agenda.

While this poll is certainly good news for Fitzpatrick, it does not mean the race is over.  Murphy has a sizable cash advantage which he will surely use to his advantage.  There is also a large percentage of undecided voters in the district.  Though undecided voters tend to break away from the incumbent, Murphy's cash advantage will certainly be used to persuade some to break his way.

There is plenty of work to be done yet in this district.  Last Saturday I volunteered to make calls at the Bucks County GOP Victory Center in Doylestown.  I was recruited by a persuasive young conservative and I plan to be there to help again on Saturday as well.  The Victory Center is working to ensure the election of all GOP nominees including Fitzpatrick, Corbett and Patrick Toomey.  Those who are in the area please consider volunteering some time to make certain these great candidates are elected.  We can take nothing for granted, only with hard work will we make sure that incumbents like Murphy are sent a message they can't deny in November.

PA08 First debate - Mike Fitzpatrick cleans Murphy's clock

KYW1060 has a nice summary of the first official debate between Patrick Murphy (he's a Democrat which is not something he brags about on his website) and Republican challenger Mike Fitzpatrick.  As you may have guessed from the title Murphy didn't fare well in the debate. While I have not been shy in expressing my disagreement with Congressman Murphy over well, everything, I think I offer a fair assessment of the debate; Fitzpatrick cleaned Murphy's clock.   Listen to the debate podcast at KYW and judge for yourself.

Many have been pointing to the race in the 8th as a bellwether in recent days, this may be true on many levels.  Murphy's performance is a bellwether for Democratic arguments and their potential to resonate with an outraged electorate.  Case in point,  Murphy is forced to defend his indefensible voting record while groping for an argument that might provide him some traction against Fitzpatrick.  Murphy reaches back in time for Fitzpatrick's vote for CAFTA, inaccurately linking it with NAFTA (see below) while hoping against hope voters might see this as motivation to vote against Fitzpatrick.  This borders on the delusional.  As if voters will somehow overlook Murphy's utter defiance of the will of the people in his votes for health care, cap and trade and the rest of the Obama/Pelosi/Reid job-killing agenda because Fitzpatrick voted for CAFTA.

Murphy exaggerates frequently and distorts when exaggeration fails him.  He spends much of his time meandering through a litany of Obamaisms of the blame Bush variety, tying Fitzpatrick to Bush for added measure.  This seems fairly desperate but it is in keeping with the rest of Murphy's performance.  Debates can be decisive in tight elections which should give Fitzpatrick supporters cause for celebration.  Frankly, as much as I oppose Murphy,  I even expected a better performance from Murphy.

The Fitzpatrick Campaign offers a fact-check that should lay to rest any doubts about Murphy's credibility or competence; he has neither:

PHILADELPHIA, Pa.-- In their first face-to-face encounter of the fall campaign, Mike Fitzpatrick trounced incumbent Congressman Patrick Murphy during a taping of Larry Kane's Voice of Reason earlier today.During the debate, Fitzpatrick pressed Congressman Murphy on record unemployment that more than doubled during his time in Congress.

Unable to provide any plan for economic recovery and job creation, Murphy feebly claimed that the massive $787 billion stimulus bill he championed last year has helped the economy. Additionally, to hide his record of increasing joblessness and deficit spending, Murphy grossly misstated and made up facts during the thirty-minute debate.

Murphy claimed that during the eight years of the Bush Administration, during two of which Murphy was also a member of Congress, America lost 8 million jobs. In fact, according to a Wall Street Journal study published in January of 2009, there was a net gain of 3 million jobs between January 2001 and January 2009. "Congressman Murphy has never been particularly good at counting jobs," Fitzpatrick said, "unemployment is high enough, but now Patrick Murphy is trying to make 11 million more jobs disappear."

Additionally, Murphy claimed that the North American Free Trade Agreement was enacted by a Republican Congress. In reality, NAFTA was enacted in 1993, when Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress. It was later signed into law by then President Bill Clinton, also a Democrat. "This is just a further example of how Congressman Murphy is willing to bend the truth to suit his political needs," Fitzpatrick said, "unfortunately for Congressman Murphy he can't hide the fact that unemployment is at 9.6% and he has no plan to reduce it."

The debate is scheduled to air on the Comcast Network station on Sunday, September 12th at 9:30 PM and Wednesday, September 15th at 5:30 PM.

Fitzpatrick leads Patrick Murphy PA08 by 7 points

Via Fitzpatrick for Congress on Facebook

I have been waiting for polling data from PA-08 and the results from this Public Opinion Strategies poll appears to have been worth the wait.  Mike Fitzpatrick leads Patrick Murphy by 7 points 48% - 41% in a poll of 400 likely voters conducted August 22-23, 2010.  Here are the key results:

KEY DATA

• 1. Fitzpatrick opens the fall campaign with a seven-point lead over Patrick Murphy. Former Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick starts the final push to November 2nd with a 48%-41% lead over Patrick Murphy. Fitzpatrick has an even wider lead in intensity of support, with 36% of voters saying they’re definitely voting for him versus 24% who say they’re definitely voting for Patrick Murphy.
• 2. Fitzpatrick also has a significant image advantage over Murphy.  Fitzpatrick’s image in the district is 55% favorable/16% favorable, compared to Murphy’s 51% favorable/31% unfavorable image. And, Mike also has a significant edge among Independents, with a 59%-15% favorable/unfavorable image compared to 48%- 29% for Murphy.
• 3. The political environment here has a strong GOP tilt.  Not only is Obama’s job approval here inverted (43%-53%, with 41% strongly disapproving), but the GOP candidate leads the “generic” ballot by 50%-34%, Speaker Pelosi has a very negative image (34% favorable/57% unfavorable), and both GOP statewide candidates lead here (Corbett by eleven and Toomey by eight).

I fully expect Patrick Murphy to discount the results as nothing more than an internal poll from a Republican pollster.  Still, the results seem consistent with other statewide polls such as this Franklin and Marshall poll showing Toomey with a 9 point lead among likely voters and Tom Corbett leading Democrat Dan Onorato by 11 points.  Franklin and Marshall notes:

The 2006 election year was the most recent with races for both US senate and governor in Pennsylvania. In the 2006 election, Democrats retained the governor’s office, defeated an incumbent Republican US senator, and picked up four US house seats held by Republicans. Polling in the 2006 campaign showed positive electoral indicators for Democrats that helped them to those victories.

Pennsylvania politicians are facing a distinctly different political environment than they did during the 2006 election cycle. Pessimism about the direction of the state is greater, job performance ratings for the incumbent governor are much lower, the incumbent president is unpopular, and Democrats’ advantage over Republicans in party identification and particularly voter interest has shrunk (see Table 1). While open state-wide races are often competitive in Pennsylvania, these indicators create a context where incumbent office holders will also need to be wary, particularly Democrats.

This underscores the "bottom line" emphasized in the Public Opinion Strategies memo:

Patrick Murphy’s electoral victories in this district came during the two best election years for Democrats in decades. Now that the political winds have shifted, Murphy is seeing this recently friendly district slip away. Voters have soured on President Obama and Speaker Pelosi and they’re looking for a Republican to provide a check and balance in Congress.

With an enduring favorable image in the district and the political winds at his back, Mike Fitzpatrick is well-positioned to retake his former seat on November 2nd.

Mike Fitzpatrick appears  to have momentum as he seeks to win the seat he lost to Murphy by a mere 1500 votes in 2006.  Charlie Cook cited Murphy's narrow margin of victory in 2006 as well as the shifting political winds when he recently downgraded PA08 to "toss up" status on August 17, 2010.  Time for Patrick Murphy to start packing his carpet bag.

As predicted:

Murphy's campaign manager, Tim Persico, brushed off the numbers: "Former Congressman Fitzpatrick's poll, done by Republican consultants, is as misguided as his job-killing agenda. Recent polling shows Patrick Murphy with a solid lead, which makes sense since the voters have already rejected Congressman Fitzpatrick once after he voted for all of Bush’s failed economic policies - like tax breaks to corporations that ship our jobs overseas and tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans."

As I noted above, Cook recently moved this race to "toss up" although Cook reported there was limited polling data available at the time. This was a week ago. Cook cited the close margin of the votes in 2006 and the current anti-Dem mood as justification for the change. Presumably he had seen some polling as "limited polling" is quite different than no polling, in my opinion anyway. I think it safe to assume Cook hadn't seen anything to keep Murphy in the "Lean Democrat" category. I search for polling info on the district every day. If Congressman Murphy has polling data showing Murphy with a solid lead let's see it. I am assuming when Cook and other prognosticators see Murphy's solid lead they'll switch the race rating in Murphy's favor. Until then I take anything coming from the Murphy camp with the same grain of salt I give his newfound ability to break with his party.

There were a few interesting reactions to this poll on Twitter as well. It looks as though only Murphy's spokesman is discounting the poll:

Surprise Patrick Murphy interns gathered signatures for third-party candidate

As I predicted on Wednesday evidence surfaces to link Patrick Murphy's campaign to perennial candidate Tom Ligenfelter's nominating petitions:

The conventional wisdom is Tom Lingenfelter will pull votes from Republican Mike Fitzpatrick.

Two former interns for Congressman Patrick Murphy, now working for the state Democratic Party, have turned in nominating petitions to get a third-party candidate on the ballot.

The interns - Brian Caplan of Northampton and Jessica Milinichik of Bristol Township - submitted 148 signatures on the notarized papers for Tom Lingenfelter, a Doylestown historian.

The addition of Lingenfelter to the 8th District ballot is significant as his presence in a rematch between Murphy, a Democrat, and former Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick, a Republican, could tilt the outcome. Back in 2006, Murphy upset Fitzpatrick by a mere 1,518 votes.

In 2008, Lingenfelter accrued 5,543 votes, 1.6 percent of the total, in Murphy's victory over Tom Manion.

The conventional wisdom is Lingenfelter will pull votes from Fitzpatrick.

Tim Persico, Murphy's finance director, said the interns recently left the Murphy campaign.

"This wasn't an operation of Patrick Murphy for Congress," he said. "Patrick Murphy has better things to talk about. We weren't involved in this."

I don't know what better things Congressman Murphy has to talk about but he sure isn't discussing them with his constituents. Congressman Murphy prefers the cut and run strategy instead.

Though the Intelligencer report refers to the involvement of former interns, Jessica Milinichik identified herself as an intern for Patrick Murphy as recently as July 16, 2010 when promoting her first canvass:

“I had my first phone bank last week, and 5 or 6 people showed up. It was great, we made 300 phone calls. Now tomorrow will be my first canvass. I have my signs together, I have the literature, my canvass packets, I've cut my turf and called my volunteers.

"Bryan Allen, a state Senate candidate, will speak at the beginning and then canvass with us. Then we’re going to hit the doors of those 2008 first-time voters. I’ve never organized a canvass before. I’m nervous, but I can’t wait to put faces to the voices of the people who are coming.”

Here is a screenshot from Organizing for America noting her status as intern for Patrick Murphy:

The same information was given in Arcadia University's blog The Bulletin. The Intelligencer article mentions Milinichik's volunteer service for OFA but fails to include mention of her identification as a Murphy intern:

On his Facebook page, Caplan describes himself as "very liberal." In a July 19 story published in the Arcadia University student newspaper, Milinichik said she volunteers for Organizing for America, President Barack Obama's grassroots organization.

 If Ms. Milinichik has since been promoted to the state Democratic party, the promotion is indeed quite recent.  How convenient.

H/T: PA2010
Thomas Jefferson Club Blog posts on the revelation as well.

Patrick Murphy PA08 - "This is not a town hall"

Big Hat Tip to Midnight Blue for this choice little video clip of Patrick "Patlosi" Murphy who was unable to find a way to duck his constituents at an event this past Saturday.  Murphy has a long history of avoiding direct meetings with his constituents.  When Congressmen and women across the United States took heat from their constituents last summer over health care, Congressman Murphy was attending the "Netroots Nation" convention instead.    Though the local paper urged Murphy to grant his constituents face time with their Congressman,  Mr. Murphy barely managed to phone it in  with AARP representative Ray Landis handling a good portion of the questions.

It looks as though his constituents decided to bring the town hall to him instead.  Murphy would have none of that though.   Murphy repeatedly rejects the idea to address the group saying "this is not a town hall."  Oh please, heaven forbid.  That doesn't stop Congressman Murphy from claiming he has held town halls, however. I wonder if these secret events were held in San Francisco or did the "Netroots Nation" convention count as a town hall?

The highlight of the clip comes when a flustered Murphy completely loses the floor to his challenger Mike Fitzpatrick.  Mike Fitzpatrick addressed the disappointed group after Murphy refused to address them. What a refreshing contrast to Murphy.   Hillbuzz posted this video adding, "Patrick Murphy in Pennsylvania sure looks like toast to us."  From your lips, as the saying goes.... please.

More Vaporous Threats on the Left - Patrick Murphy Earning Murtha's Seat

Greg Sargent challenges whether Rep. Eric Cantor "jumped the gun" in referencing a bullet shot through his campaign office window during a press conference on Thursday.  Sargent questioned Cantor's spokesperson Brad Dayspring making continual reference to a police report that concluded the incident was an "act of random gunfire."  Sargent presses Dayspring on details of Cantor's statement in light of the conclusions from the police investigation in a "what did he know and when did he know it" report including whether details of the bullet's trajectory had been discussed with police prior to Cantor's press conference.  This is the hard-line investigative journalism that gave Dustin Hoffman and Robert Redford the opportunity to portray Woodward and Bernstein in "All the President's Men" after all.

Contrast Sargent's hard-hitting investigative reporting with that of The Philadelphia Inquirer" report on "threats" to Congressman Patrick Murphy (D PA-8) after he voted for the health care legislation last week:

U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy has received threats since voting for the health-care overhaul last Sunday night but there have been no acts of vandalism against his home or his district offices, a spokeswoman for the congressman said today.

Kate E. Hansen declined to disclose details of the incidents, which she said are under investigation by the FBI and the Capitol Police, the agency charged with protecting members of Congress.

"It's being handled," Hansen said.

 The very last line of the Inquirer report adds, "Local police said they had no recent reports of vandalism at Murphy's district offices in Bristol Borough and Doylestown Borough, nor at his home."  Funny how that works out, no police report, no hard-hitting investigative journalism.

The report goes on to mention the "flurry of threats" and includes a quote from Rep. Bob Brady (D PA) who is "a little worried about people going home now - there are going to be a lot of town hall meetings."  It will come as no surprise to Patrick Murphy's constituents there would be no quote from Murphy let alone one referencing town hall meeting.  Murphy only conducts town halls via telephone with the able assistance of  the AARP.  Still, one wonders, did the Inquirer attempt to obtain a quote from Murphy and why the inclusion of one from Brady.  Is Brady an easier "get" now that Murphy has been given the nod for a seat on the Appropriations Committee vacant since the death of his mentor John Murtha?

It would be shocking had there been  any credible reports to police of acts of vandalism or violence to Congressman Murphy's offices or  residence.  His constituents fully expected him to vote with Speaker Pelosi as he always does.  Still, Congressman "Patlosi," as he is known locally, mentioned listening to thousands of his constituents when announcing his decision to vote for the bill despite the obstructionist strategies by national tea party groups evidently designed solely to prevent Murphy from hearing from constituents who opposed the health care bill. Murphy's spokesperson Kate Hansen  explained their phones were jammed with tea party phone calls when pressed for an explanation why constituents who opposed the bill were unable to get through to voice concern:

 "These calls are not organic and are being organized by a number of different national tea party activist groups that are executing an obstructionist strategy to deliberately prevent offices from functioning as they're supposed to (and) be able to accept feedback from constituents."

We are asked to believe then only pro-reform calls and inorganic tea party calls got through to Murphy's office.  These are the pro forma explanations Congressman Murphy's constituents have come to expect and are rarely disappointed.

Further complicating Murphy's ability to listen to his constituents was a power failure that forced his Doylestown PA office  to close for several hours the Monday prior to the vote.  You can read this on the sign posted on the door to his office quite plainly thanks to the light shining behind the sign.  I guess tea party folks in Florida and Texas were behind that obstruction as well.

To say that Hansen and Murphy have something of a credibility problem is a bit of an understatement.  Still, Murphy's alleged threats get none of the scrutiny that Cantor's statement enjoys.   Cantor's office had a bullet penetrate the window at some trajectory and the left all but calls on Arlen Specter to reassemble the Warren Commission.

Congressman Murphy, through his spokesperson, advances another vaporous threat, without a shred of evidence, as contribution to the growing liberal narrative those who oppose health care are dangerous.  The media laps it up and regurgitates without question.  Never let it be said Murphy isn't doing his part for the cause.    This is a fact that is widely known locally.  Murphy doesn't concern himself with local opinion, however, his loyalty is saved for Nancy Pelosi.  Murphy will be richly rewarded after having proven himself loyal and every bit as worthy as John Murtha to fill that coveted seat on the Appropriations Committee.   It would be a pity if Democrats "jumped the gun" and presumed Murphy re-elected before voters have their say in November.

Cook Report Revisions: More Bad News For Democrats

Politico is reporting Cook Political Report made ratings changes in 25 House races all in favor of Republicans to reflect the increasingly bleak prospects for Democrats as they head into the 2010 midterm elections. A January 25, 2010 analysis showed Democrats with 49 seats in the lean or toss up category while Republicans had 10. The February 18th assessment shows Democrats with 52 seats in the lean or toss up category while Republicans now have 6. Seats that were previously thought untouchable have suddenly become vulnerable:

The list of potentially vulnerable Democrats, according to the Cook Report, includes members who have been virtually untouchable in the past, including Rep. Dave Obey (D-Wis.), the powerful chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, and Rep. Nick Rahall, the chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee, who hasn’t faced a competitive race since 1990.

“At this rate, Democrats are likely to lose at least 25-35 seats in the House and would have to bend the current trajectory of the cycle to hold onto their House majority,” wrote Cook Political Report House analyst David Wasserman.

Republicans once thought to be vulnerable have also been changed to show incumbents in better positions for reelection.  Michelle Bachmann has moved from lean Republican to Likely Republican despite targeted efforts to defeat her:

Republican members who began the election cycle in a highly vulnerable position appear to be in better shape. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), whose provocative rhetoric has made her a top GOP target, saw her status moved from “lean Republican” to the safer “likely Republican” rating — even though she’s facing two well-funded Democratic opponents, state Sen. Tarryl Clark and physician Maureen Reed.

Both Clark and Reed “would have probably beaten this lightning rod incumbent had they been running in 2008,” Wasserman wrote.

Democrats appear not have gotten this memo if the current cycle of Bachmann attack ads running on Google are any indication.  Perhaps they might find better ways to spend their money.  The list of Republicans on more solid ground for reelection is growing.  Cook shows Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska) as a near lock for reelection as are Reps. Erik Paulsen (R-MN), Bill Young (R-FL.), Tom Rooney (R-FL), Mark Souder (R-IN), Thad McCotter (R-MI) and Judy Biggert (R-IL).

When the report was last updated Patrick Murphy (PA 8) had just been moved from safe to likely Democratic.  That seat has since moved to Lean Democratic.  While such moves reflect an increasingly perilous election cycle for Democrats, Cook's list still manages to understate that peril.  Representative Alan Grayson of Florida is somewhat absurdly listed as Democratic toss up intending to reflect the race could go in either direction.  Grayson has to be one of the most vulnerable after some of his ridiculous statements this past year.  Clearly he is a far left leaning ideologue who is ill-suited to represent an R+2 district.  Nevertheless, Cook's continual shifts in favor of Republicans reflect the national mood which is clearly turned away from Democratic governance.  It sure does feel like 1994 lately.

58 Democratic Seats in Play Including 12 New Seats - UPDATED

Scroll down for update
Ed Morrissey  noticed the NYT buried some good news  for Republicans in an article highlighting the explosion of new candidates entering the field for Congressional seats in November.  While much of the Times article focuses on the potential obstacles Republicans may face from heated primaries, the interesting news comes from Stewart Rothenberg about half way through the article:

Stuart Rothenberg, a political analyst who follows Congressional races, said a report he will release Monday will count 58 Democratic House seats in play, up from 47 in December. The number of Republican seats in play has held at 14 in that period, he said. And Democrats expect more of their incumbents to retire, which could put additional seats at risk.

Rothenberg list a total of 72 seats in play adding 12 new seats from those considered safe to either favored Democrats or leans Democrat.  Here is a list of the 12 seats:

• WV 1 (Mollohan, D) * Moved from  safe to leans democrat
• AZ 8 (Giffords, D) *
• CO 3 (Salazar, D) *
• CA 11 (McNerney, D) *
• IA 3 (Boswell, D)
• NY 13 (McMahon, D) *
• ND A-L (Pomeroy, D) *
• NJ 3 (Adler, D) *
• PA 4 (Altmire, D) *
• PA 8 (Murphy, D) *
• PA 17 (Holden, D) *
• VA 9 (Boucher, D) *

As mentioned in a previous post, Chris Wysocki at Wyblog noted former Eagles tackle Jon Runyan has already put his hat in the ring for NJ's 3rd Congressional District.  Patrick Murphy (PA 8) is facing a wealth of challengers including a rematch from Mike Fitzpatrick.  Fitzpatrick was quoted in the Times article on the flood of candidates entering the field nationwide after last week's upset in Massachusetts:

“I think it was inspiring and gave voice to a lot of people,” said Mike Fitzpatrick, a former one-term Republican congressman from the Philadelphia suburbs who announced on Saturday that he would try to reclaim his old seat from Representative Patrick J. Murphy, a Democrat.

 Murphy must be feeling some heat, he will be hosting a State of the Union party this Wednesday and will be joined by conference call from Obama campaign manager David Plouffe.   Thomas Jefferson Club blog has the details:

State of the Union Watch Party-Lower Bucks (State of the Union Watch Party)

On January 27th, Organizing for America (OFA) supporters and volunteers across the country will gather together to watch the President’s State of the Union Address.

Join OFA friends, catch up with volunteers from the campaign, and meet new folks at our State of the Union Watch Party!

The party begins at 7:30PM. At 8:15, we’ll be joined, via conference call, by David Plouffe, the Obama for America campaign manager, to help plan for what comes next.

The President’s State of the Union address begins at 9:00PM.
We’ll have some refreshments but feel free to bring a snack or dessert to share.
For more info contact amjordan99@comcast.net

Time:	Wednesday, January 27 from 7:30 PM – 10:30 PM
Host:	Ann Marie Jordan
Location:	Patrick Murphy for Congress (Bristol, PA) 327 Mill Street Bristol, PA 19007

That is the draw? David Plouffe and bring your own snacks or desserts, hardly seems like the antidote to Democratic complacency and real Republican momentum.  Rothenberg acknowledges the Republican momentum and is unwilling to discount the possibility Republicans can pick up enough seats to retake the House though he does his best to downplay the potential as well:

In addition, we can no longer dismiss the possibility of a Republican wave so large that Democrats could lose their House majority. We stress, however, that we currently expect Republicans to fall short of the 40 seats they would need. Scott Brown’s victory in Massachusetts doesn’t mean that every Republican candidate will win in November.

Republicans may not win every election in November but Rothenberg's own list puts enough seats in play with room to spare.

Note:  Thomas Jefferson Club blog notes American's for Prosperity is hosting a State of the Union Party on Wednesday as well.  Jeff McGeary, president and co-founder of The Thomas Jefferson Club is also making a run against Murphy.  You see his website here.  The blog also lists the other fine candidates who were inspired to challenge Murphy when the leading analysts considered the race a lock for Murphy.  I plan to follow the race closely and will provide more information on the fine candidates who stepped forward to serve Bucks County.
UPDATE:  Via Allahpundit
Cook Political Report puts Murphy's seat in Lean's Democratic which clearly puts it in play given his assessment of the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats:

If this level remains constant, you can count on the Democratic majority in the House being toast this fall.

Also Nate Silver

 Think others are too conservative on projecting GOP gains. We don't have a House model yet, but GOP seems as likely as not to take House.

Surrender Nancy

Daniel Foster at The Corner of NRO online reports Pelosi may have yet another trick up her sleeves for health care; color me shocked.  While many, including me, declared health care DOA after Speaker Pelosi said she didn't have the votes, it appears we may have underestimated the sheer determination of Democrats to commit hara kiri by health care.  Desperate Democrats are working the votes to drum up support for passage of the Senate bill in total in the House with agreements to undo portions House members find distasteful:

Democratic staffers are telling Newsweek that though Pelosi is still “way short” of the 218 votes it would take to pass the Senate bill—with issues such as the Cadillac Tax and Cornhusker Kickback serving as sticking points—that equation could soon change. Democrats are “working the phones furiously to talk up the idea of the Senate promising to retroactively unravel several distasteful components.”

I am pretty sure the voters in Massachusetts hadn't intended to send a man to Washington who campaigned on his being the 41st vote against dishonest efforts to ram health care through at all costs only to sit back and nod in approval once Madame Speaker finds an alternate strategy to ram it through anyway.   Obviously this makes absolutely no difference as Pelosi is arguing this can be done in the House with passage in the Senate requiring 51 votes via reconciliation:

If House Democrats make the good-faith deal, Pelosi is arguing that the Senate promise would be easy to keep. Reconciliation votes require only a 51-vote majority. Or even 50, in which case Vice President Biden could break the tie.

This aide says that leadership considers reconciliation, with the House conditioning its support on promised fixes in the Senate, as the much more strategic route than breaking the package into parts, which isn’t ideal because all of the parts are interlocking. Asked what the timetable would be for that, this aide says weeks, not months.

This would explain the Easter miracle strategy highlighted in my last post.  Foster suggests this is a viable strategy though it ignores the politics.  It also ignores the promise of  Obama and the Democrats they wouldn't attempt the possibility of ramming a bill through before Scott Brown was seated.  Then again, we should all know the value of an Obama promise at this point.

I have absolutely no doubt that Pelosi et al, will examine each and every possibility by which they can put this disastrous bill through against the will of the people.  They have shown utter contempt and disregard for the people they purport to serve every day they have met since Obama took office and then some.  If Pelosi can whip the votes after the clear message sent by voters last week no seat is safe, anyone who votes for her bill should update their resume immediately.

In my own district, Representative Patrick Murphy (D, PA8) has nine, yes nine, Republicans hoping to get the nomination to oppose him.  On Saturday Mike Fitzpatrick announced  he would seek a rematch against the man who won the seat in 2006 when the tide of populist anger turned against Republicans.  Though I have no doubt Murphy would vote exactly as Pelosi told him to, as he has in nearly every other vote since he took office, he would cast this vote with the certain knowledge one of the nine would take his seat after November.  Who would come to save him, Obama?  This is only one district, a relatively safe one for what that is worth, and there are nine qualified opponents waiting to challenge him for it.  Surely those nine smell something in the air even if Murphy and Pelosi can not.

Pelosi and the desperate Democrats should stop to consider the longer they drag this health care debacle out, the greater uncertainty grows.  Uncertainty is killing any potential for job growth.  This is a message sent repeatedly to an administration that chooses to hear only what it wants.  Democrats pursue this path at their peril, which would be fine, if only politics were at issue.  There are families who are hurting, people who are desperate to get back to work, yet Democrats see only their opportunity to pass their hated health care agenda slipping through their fingers.   These are people not worthy to lead this country, November can't come soon enough.

It's Beginning to Look a lot Like 1994

Politico reports Republicans are winning the recruiting battle for the coming 2010 midterms while Democrats see candidates dropping out of tough races. Democratic members of Congress who thought themselves assured reelection are finding themselves facing tougher prospects for reelection.

But in 2010, defense is the name of the game for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is defending several dozens vulnerable freshmen and second-term members, while also protecting veteran members who could find themselves in newfound trouble. It will be a lot more challenging for a first-time candidate running in a tough district to get financial support from the DCCC when the party is worried about defending its own.

Politico cites examples of strong candidates who might be poised in a more favorable political environment to give Democrats a few choice pick-ups, who chose instead to withdraw:

Over the last week, three Democratic candidates touted by national strategists abruptly withdrew from their races: Solano Beach Councilman Dave Roberts (running against California Rep. Brian Bilbray), state Rep. Todd Book (running against Ohio Rep. Jean Schmidt) and Tennessee Commerce and Insurance Commissioner Paula Flowers (in the seat held by retiring Rep. Zach Wamp).


In a neutral political environment, the seats held by Bilbray, Schmidt, and the open Tennessee seat would be enticing targets for Democrats. Democrats aggressively contested the first two seats in both 2006 and 2008, and experienced unexpected success in Southern open seats over the last two elections.

 The political winds have indeed changed.  Locally I can add Patrick Murphy (D, PA-8) has Republicans coming out of the woodwork to oppose him in 2010.  Recently a former Bucks County prosecutor and Marine reservist Dean Malik announced he would seek the GOP endorsement.  A moderate Warrington PA resident Jeffrey Schott had already announced his intentions to seek the GOP nomination.  The two candidates are not alone according to the Morning Call:

Malik and Schott may have competition for the coveted GOPendorsement. Patricia Poprik, vice chairman of the Bucks County Republican Committee, said at least eight people have contacted party leaders about running.

Though Murphy is not on the NRCC targeted list, the current political mood suggests there are no safe seats and Murphy should know this better than anyone.  In 2006 he unseated incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick (R) when the tides had clearly turned against Republicans.  Consider the eight hoping to challenge Murphy a sign of the times.

UPDATE- Linked at Examiner.com by Beth Hegedus "Montgomery County Republican Examiner"  Thank you and welcome Examiner readers!

Update II:  Via Memeorandum  Hotline on Call reports that a second leading Blue Dog is retiring.   This second retirement in a matter of days is a harbinger of some bad times ahead for Democrats:

Indeed, Hotline's Amy Walter wrote last week that, of all potential Dem retirements, a Tanner announcement would send the biggest shockwave through the party. After all, the thinking goes, if a longtime leader of the Blue Dogs decides now is the time to hang it up, what does that say for others in his position (like MO's Ike Skelton, AR's Marion Berry or WV's Alan Mollohan)? They've all skated to re-election in recent cycles, yet all saw their CDs go quite strongly to McCain.

 Karl in The Greenroom has an excellent post on this topic citing recent polling from PPP ( a Democratic pollster) that shows a large bloc of  Democratic voters think the party is too liberal:

In fact, it is larger than the bloc of Democrats think their party’s too conservative. Yet there remains a body of opinion on the Left that thinks going Left is somehow going to help the party in the 2010 midterms. It turns out that it may not help them with Democrats, let alone Independents.

Working Their Tails Off In PA-8

While Patrick Murphy PA-8, was casting his vote for the House "Affordable" health care reform, a Facebook group was being created for those who have had enough of the pretense that Murphy is anything other than a sure vote for the Obama/Pelosi agenda. Far from being a "Blue Dog," Murphy's voting record lines up near perfectly with the most liberal members of the House.

Doreen Alli Linder notes the absurdity of Murphy's "Blue Dog" status in a post for examiner.com:

Murphy claims he is a, "moderate" although he constantly votes with the extreme left of the Democrat party.  He has a 100% rating with NARAL (National Abortion Rights Action League).  He also voted for the Stimulus bill.  He has a D+ rating from the NRA.  He is an extremist.

Anyone remotely familiar with Murphy's voting pattern knew without question this "Blue Dog" would lay down and play dead.  There is never even a hint of tension that Murphy might vote against Pelosi's liberal agenda.  Murphy casts a few strategic votes against the party only when there is absolutely no danger his vote will be critical or decisive.  He votes with a minority of House Democrats including Maxine Waters and Barney Frank on bizarre motions such as  378 to recognize the 30th anniversary of the election of Margaret Thatcher, yet claims he is a moderate.  

Murphy must feel quite confident that the voters of Bucks County are paying absolutely no attention to what he does in Congress.  He consistently tells his constituents he is working his tail off for the district when what is most evident is his commitment to raising money for his own reelection or promoting his rising star with the left wing blogosphere as he trots off to attend  yearly Daily Kos convention Netroots Nation.  Murphy's fundraising skills are as stellar as his left-wing stardom.  He positively towers over the average House Member when it comes to raising money:

Murphy is a follower, unlike the two Republicans who held the seat before him.  Should Republicans retake the House in 2010, Murphy would be as lost as the proverbial sheep.   Murphy won the seat in 2006 against Republican Mike Fitzpatrick when the pendulum had swung against Republicans.  Since 2006, Congressional Democrats have continued to increase the deficits they pledged to cut.  Obama loves to rail against the $1.3 trillion dollar deficit he inherited.  What he fails to mention is that there was no budget approved during the last year of the Bush administration. Democrats stalled believing they would hold all the keys after the election.  Whatever spending was approved in the last year of the Bush administration had the votes of Pelosi, Reid, then Senator Obama and yes, Patrick Murphy.

Since January, the Democrats have been behaving like pirates raiding the spoils of their latest conquest.   From the $787 billion "stimulas" to the $410 billion Omnibus Spending, billions in bailouts for the auto industry and  financial sector to the trillions proposed to be spent on health care, Democrats haven't met an opportunity to spend they haven't liked.  Murphy was a yes vote for every one.   His health care vote on Saturday  was the final straw.  It seems as though the grass roots in Bucks County have decided to take matters in their own hands and are putting Mr. Murphy on notice  they will be "working their tails off" to send him packing in 2010.