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Thursday, September 23, 2010

Fitzpatrick leads Murphy by 14 in PA08

If Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District is truly the bellwether pundits predict, Democrats are in trouble:
  • In the 8th congressional district, Mike Fitzpatrick has an advantage over incumbent Patrick Murphy among all registered adults, 46% to 36%, with about one in five (17%) adults still undecided. Fitzpatrick’s advantage is larger among those more likely to vote, 49% to 35%, with 15% undecided. The survey finds that Fitzpatrick’s advantage increases as the likely voter screen becomes more restrictive.
  • Two in five (41%) registered adults in the district rate Representative Murphy’s job performance as “excellent” or “good.” About the same proportion (40%) believe he deserves re-election while almost half (47%) believes it is time for a change.
  • In the PA senate race, Pat Toomey leads Joe Sestak in the district among all registered adults, 39% to 30%, and among likely voters, 42% to 32%. In the gubernatorial race, Tom Corbett leads Dan Onorato among registered adults, 37% to 29%, and among likely voters, 40% to 30%. Many registered adults in the 8th CD are still undecided about their choices for US senate (30%) and governor (34%).
  • Unemployment and the economy (57%) are the primary issues facing respondents and their families in the district. The positive job performance rating for President Obama (37%) is low in the district, but is similar to his overall state-wide ratings. Governor Rendell’s positive job performance rating (46%) is higher than the President’s in the district and is also higher than his overall state-wide rating.

The most stunning take from this poll is the degree that Barack Obama is an albatross around Patrick Murphy's neck.  Murphy is not weighed down by Obama unfairly, however.  His voting record is testimony to Murphy's commitment to the Obama/Pelosi/Reid agenda.

While this poll is certainly good news for Fitzpatrick, it does not mean the race is over.  Murphy has a sizable cash advantage which he will surely use to his advantage.  There is also a large percentage of undecided voters in the district.  Though undecided voters tend to break away from the incumbent, Murphy's cash advantage will certainly be used to persuade some to break his way.

There is plenty of work to be done yet in this district.  Last Saturday I volunteered to make calls at the Bucks County GOP Victory Center in Doylestown.  I was recruited by a persuasive young conservative and I plan to be there to help again on Saturday as well.  The Victory Center is working to ensure the election of all GOP nominees including Fitzpatrick, Corbett and Patrick Toomey.  Those who are in the area please consider volunteering some time to make certain these great candidates are elected.  We can take nothing for granted, only with hard work will we make sure that incumbents like Murphy are sent a message they can't deny in November.

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