Carville's Hurricane Scale: A guide to Democratic devastation

H/T Hot Air Headlines

George Stephanopoulos pulls the headline, "Carville Concedes: Pelosi May Be Out Even if Dems Hold On," from the interview embedded below with James Carville.  An interesting thought but honestly, it seems incredibly unlikely Democrats hold on to the House at this point. Carville almost concedes as much himself and finds the best case scenario for Dems is one in which Dems hold on to power by a scant few votes.
As you will see in the video, Carville predicts there would be plenty of party-switching deals bandied about behind closed doors. That is the type of "fun" Democratic pollsters and pundits like Carville are dreaming of these days speaks volumes about how far the mighty Democrats have fallen in a mere two years.

I found the rest of Carville's analysis much more interesting frankly. Granted, I like these tea-leaf reading discussions anyway but Carville offers an interesting insight in this one. He offers us a scale to determine, from a Dem perspective, what constitutes a wipe out this year. They are going to spin like tops afterward so I thought it would be useful to have this scale for comparisons sake.  As a native of New Orleans, it somehow seems fitting Carville converts the standard hurricane scale to size up the best and worst cases for Dems. Note the scale starts at Category 3, which on the Saffir-Simpson Scale describes a hurricane that produces devastating damage. None of this is pretty for Dems:

Category 3 hurricane: “30-40” Dem losses in the House. “And in the Senate you’re looking at maybe five Senate seats. That’s the best you can look for.”

Category 4: “Lose 40 to 50 seats, that’s a Category 4.” “You hang on to some things, you know Carl Paladino won’t win.” (And Democrats hold Senate, losing 8-9 seats)

Category 5: “If we lose 56 or better, that’s a Category 5. Then you’re going to be looking at 11 Republican Senators.”

 I still have a hard time seeing the Republicans picking up the Senate but have no trouble believing the Democrats will lose over 50 seats. It will be interesting to see if Carville's prediction holds true. Given how close the toss-up seats are these days in the Senate contests, it does seem plausible the Senate will follow the historical trend in wave elections and flip along with the House.   In other words, the wave gets the deciding vote.

Personally, I am not looking forward to Photoshopping Chuck Schumer into the new Wicked Witch on this blog.  I am rooting for the Category 5 storm scenario.  If the latest Gallup generic ballot holds true I might just get my wish.




More on Gallup at Memeorandum

Be sure to read the adventures of The Other McCain and Da Tech Guy  who are reporting from PA-10 tonight.  This is their first stop in what McCain calls "Ground Zero" if the "Big Red Wave hits:"

Pennsylvania’s 10th District is the first stop on this tour that’s actually rated “leans Republican,” and the most recent poll shows Republican Tom Marino leading 44-38 over Democrat Chris Carney. Currently, five Democrat-held seats in this state – PA-3, PA-5, PA-8, PA-10 and PA-11 – are rated “lean Republican” by Real Clear Politics, so if the Big Red Wave hits on Nov. 2, Pennsylvania will be Ground Zero.

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Hope: 55% Think Obama a Big-spending Socialist

H/T: Hot Air

James Carville's latest poll is chock full of bad news for Democrats and Barack Obama in particular.  Not only does the poll show Obama's approval underwater with 45% of likely voters approving while 51% disapprove, the poll shows a strong majority describing Obama as a big-spending socialist:

While a clear majority of respondents believe it was Bush economic policies that led to our current economic troubles, 50% also believe "President Obama's economic policies have run up a record federal deficit while failing to end the recession or slow the record pace of job losses." Voters were split when asked to decide whether "Obama and the Democrats are more concerned with creating jobs for ordinary Americans," or "Obama and the Democrats are more concerned with bailing out Wall Street." A full 50% of likely voters chose cutting government spending and cutting taxes as the best way to create jobs and improve the economy.

Congressional Democrats were again behind in a Congressional ballot question among all respondents and to a greater degree with likely voters:

Total Democratic candidate.........................................43 42
Total Republican candidate.........................................46 48

Negative feelings toward the Congressional Democrats can be explained by looking at a break-down of negative feelings about Obama. It's the policies, namely health care and fiscal irresponsibility they dislike:

Let's face it, when they've lost Barbara Streisand it's time for Democrats to rethink the big spending socialist policies agenda that has proven to fail in Europe.  The handwriting has been on the wall for a long time now though and Democrats have ignored every warning   Democrats appear poised to reap what they have sown in November.

James Carvillle: 'We're About to Die Down Here!'

It's starting to look a lot like Katrina to me. It seems James Carville agrees while Stephanopoulos spins like a top:

Carville: Health Care Will Be Obama's Waterloo

Via The DailyCaller

James Carville echoed the metaphor made famous this past summer by Senator Jim DeMint in an interview on "Good Morning America" earlier today. The Democratic strategist and pollster seemed uncertain Speaker Pelosi will actually have the votes necessary to pass health care but underscored the urgency to Democrats stating “If the bill loses, it proves Senator DeMint right. It will, I think, by and large, be a lot of the president’s Waterloo, and I think a lot of Democrats realize that.”

Despite the urgency, Carville seemed to find the path ahead a challenge to say the least. Carville expressed some disbelief Pelosi might actually have the votes as she claimed though he suggested it wasn't impossible: “But the math is pretty daunting. I don’t think it’s impossible but it’s going to be difficult. This is going to be a real, real fight.”   For those wondering just how much of a fight passing health care might be Keith Hennessey outlines the numerous hurdles Speaker Pelosi and Leader Reid face in making health care reform a reality. Not for the faint of heart, but if you are feeling really wonkish today take a gander at the mechanics of the two-bill strategy. None of this appears to be the simple "up or down vote" on health care the President and his cheerleading friends on the left would have you believe.

Despite the major hurdles facing Democrats, a cautionary note seems important here. Rasmussen finds Obama's health care reform got a bit of a bump after his summit last week. Any slight shift in winds in favor of the reform could sway a vote here or there in the House. Needless to say, this is no time to take our eye off the ball. We've seen Pelosi whip her caucus with the prowess of a circus lion tamer. "She's one tough cookie" about to face the toughest challenge of her political career.  The question might be whether she will allow Obama's Waterloo to become hers as well.




More on Pelosi at Memeorandum