Dem Shenanigans in Pennsylvania

First, via JWF  and Memeorandum comes confirmation of suspicions I have reported in the past, Bryan Lentz, Dem candidate for PA07 is busted:

A Pennsylvania Democratic House candidate on Tuesday admitted to helping a third Tea Party candidate get on the ballot who he hopes will siphon votes away from his Republican opponent.

Bryan Lentz, the Democratic nominee running for the seat being vacated by Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.), said that he knew that volunteers from his campaign helped Tea Party candidate Jim Schneller.

"If somebody's already made the decision to run, I didn't think that 'helping' with the process of signature petitions was improper," Lentz told told the Delaware County Daily Times editorial board in an interview.

Republicans have accused Democrats of helping set up Tea Party candidates as spoilers in several House and Senate races around the country. Democrats face a tough political environment this fall, when they are trying to maintain their congressional majorities against a GOP wave spurred in part by Tea Party groups.

Lentz said he could not remember when he learned of his volunteers' work on behalf of Schneller, but he said "I didn't think it was a bad thing for the process or for my candidacy."

Republican nominee Pat Meehan and Lentz are locked in a tight race, The Hill's 2010 Midterm Poll last week showed last week that Meehan is narrowly leading Lentz 40-39 percent.

Meehan's campaign responded to the Lentz's claim in the Philadelphia Inquirer.

"It's about time Bryan Lentz would admit what the media has been reporting on for months," said Meehan campaign manager Bryan Kendro. "Despite his efforts to fool voters about his role in supporting Schneller's candidacy, he was forced to come clean, and he should apologize for not being forthright."

If he didn't think it was improper then why did he try to cover it up?  If he would fool the voters now imagine what he would do in Washington.

Next, via Jim Geraghty, Lentz would fit right in with Patrick Murphy (D-PA08) who obviously thought he would take a final crack at fooling voters:

Workers at Bucks County's voter registration office fielded 70 calls on Tuesday and dozens more this past week from residents worried they wouldn't be able to vote on Election Day.

The reason: a series of Democratic Party absentee ballot letters -- under the letterhead of the fictitious Pennsylvania Voter Assistance Office -- warning recipients that their ability to vote in November could be threatened.

"They are concerned because, number one they think it is from us, and number two they don't understand why they are receiving it," said Deena Dean, director of Bucks County's election office. "They don't understand why their participation in the upcoming election might be in jeopardy."

Republicans blasted the letters, with a spokesman calling them "deeply troubling."

Concerned about an "enthusiasm gap" with Republicans, Democrats are going to great lengths to urge their voters to cast ballots in the midterm election. In Bucks County, Democrats have a voter registration edge, but recent polls suggest 8th District Democratic U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy is trailing Republican Mike Fitzpatrick.

The Voter Assistance Office letters, spearheaded by the Bucks County Democratic Party, are part of the turnout effort.

The last of the three mailings warns the recipient that it is the "THIRD and FINAL notice.""By failing to return the enclosed documents, you may be placing your ability to participate in this year's general election at risk," the letter reads.

Read the rest of that sordid mess then take a shower.  If you have to threaten and coerce voters into returning an absentee ballot...  Oh never mind, this is business as usual for the Dems isn't it?  If they can't threaten enough people they'll just dig them up.

Despite consistent polling that has showed Republicans cleaning up in Pennsylvania, recent evidence suggests the polls are much tighter than they have appeared.  The Hill released a poll this morning that showed Murphy leading Fitzpatrick by three points.  This is well within the margin of error but it is the first independent poll showing Murphy in the lead.  Polls that show Fitzpatrick ahead are based on greater turnout by Republicans and Independents favoring Republican candidates.  It is all going to come down to who can turn out the vote. We know what lengths the Dems will go to turn their voters out, we must not be complacent.

I absolutely believe Fitzpatrick and Toomey will win but it is up to us to make that happen.  Fitzpatrick is holding a GOTV blow out event on Saturday.  More info on that available here.  Kitchen Table Patriots have many events scheduled and there is plenty to do at the Bucks County GOP Victory Center as well.  We need to turn out every vote to insure the election of Pat Toomey, Mike Fitzpatrick, Corbett and a slew of other great GOP candidates.  Let's Roll!
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Desperate Measures: Patrick Murphy releases a purple people eater poll

Desperate times  my friends lead to incredibly desperate measures:

"Service Employees International Union (SEIU) and Vote Vets Action Fund released a poll today showing Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy leading Republican Mike Fitzpatrick among likely voters by 49 percent to 46 percent, with 5 percent undecided. Murphy enjoys an even wider lead among more likely voters. Among the 87 percent of respondents who say they will “definitely vote,” Murphy holds a 50 percent to 45 percent lead. Among the 75 percent of respondents who actually voted in the last mid-term election in November 2006, Murphy’s lead expands to 52 percent versus 44 percent for Fitzpatrick."

Notice that the poll shows Murphy's lead magically expanding as respondents are narrowed to likely voters.  Not only is this diametrically opposed to all the trends in voter enthusiasm across the county, it is precisely the opposite of the findings of only independent measure of the race thus far:

Still, the most recent 6ABC-Franklin and Marshall College Poll has Murphy behind 46-36 percent among registered voters.

And it's even worse news for Murphy among likely voters who have the challenger leading 49-35 percent.

Murphy criticized the findings of the Franklin and Marshall poll relentlessly yet expects the public to accept the findings of a poll bought and paid for by the SEIU without hesitation.  Riiiiiiiiiiiight, maybe that will happen after we find out what is in that health care bill and fall hopelessly in love with it.

Fitzpatrick leads Murphy by 14 in PA08

If Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District is truly the bellwether pundits predict, Democrats are in trouble:

• In the 8th congressional district, Mike Fitzpatrick has an advantage over incumbent Patrick Murphy among all registered adults, 46% to 36%, with about one in five (17%) adults still undecided. Fitzpatrick’s advantage is larger among those more likely to vote, 49% to 35%, with 15% undecided. The survey finds that Fitzpatrick’s advantage increases as the likely voter screen becomes more restrictive.
• Two in five (41%) registered adults in the district rate Representative Murphy’s job performance as “excellent” or “good.” About the same proportion (40%) believe he deserves re-election while almost half (47%) believes it is time for a change.
• In the PA senate race, Pat Toomey leads Joe Sestak in the district among all registered adults, 39% to 30%, and among likely voters, 42% to 32%. In the gubernatorial race, Tom Corbett leads Dan Onorato among registered adults, 37% to 29%, and among likely voters, 40% to 30%. Many registered adults in the 8th CD are still undecided about their choices for US senate (30%) and governor (34%).
• Unemployment and the economy (57%) are the primary issues facing respondents and their families in the district. The positive job performance rating for President Obama (37%) is low in the district, but is similar to his overall state-wide ratings. Governor Rendell’s positive job performance rating (46%) is higher than the President’s in the district and is also higher than his overall state-wide rating.

The most stunning take from this poll is the degree that Barack Obama is an albatross around Patrick Murphy's neck.  Murphy is not weighed down by Obama unfairly, however.  His voting record is testimony to Murphy's commitment to the Obama/Pelosi/Reid agenda.

While this poll is certainly good news for Fitzpatrick, it does not mean the race is over.  Murphy has a sizable cash advantage which he will surely use to his advantage.  There is also a large percentage of undecided voters in the district.  Though undecided voters tend to break away from the incumbent, Murphy's cash advantage will certainly be used to persuade some to break his way.

There is plenty of work to be done yet in this district.  Last Saturday I volunteered to make calls at the Bucks County GOP Victory Center in Doylestown.  I was recruited by a persuasive young conservative and I plan to be there to help again on Saturday as well.  The Victory Center is working to ensure the election of all GOP nominees including Fitzpatrick, Corbett and Patrick Toomey.  Those who are in the area please consider volunteering some time to make certain these great candidates are elected.  We can take nothing for granted, only with hard work will we make sure that incumbents like Murphy are sent a message they can't deny in November.

PA08 First debate - Mike Fitzpatrick cleans Murphy's clock

KYW1060 has a nice summary of the first official debate between Patrick Murphy (he's a Democrat which is not something he brags about on his website) and Republican challenger Mike Fitzpatrick.  As you may have guessed from the title Murphy didn't fare well in the debate. While I have not been shy in expressing my disagreement with Congressman Murphy over well, everything, I think I offer a fair assessment of the debate; Fitzpatrick cleaned Murphy's clock.   Listen to the debate podcast at KYW and judge for yourself.

Many have been pointing to the race in the 8th as a bellwether in recent days, this may be true on many levels.  Murphy's performance is a bellwether for Democratic arguments and their potential to resonate with an outraged electorate.  Case in point,  Murphy is forced to defend his indefensible voting record while groping for an argument that might provide him some traction against Fitzpatrick.  Murphy reaches back in time for Fitzpatrick's vote for CAFTA, inaccurately linking it with NAFTA (see below) while hoping against hope voters might see this as motivation to vote against Fitzpatrick.  This borders on the delusional.  As if voters will somehow overlook Murphy's utter defiance of the will of the people in his votes for health care, cap and trade and the rest of the Obama/Pelosi/Reid job-killing agenda because Fitzpatrick voted for CAFTA.

Murphy exaggerates frequently and distorts when exaggeration fails him.  He spends much of his time meandering through a litany of Obamaisms of the blame Bush variety, tying Fitzpatrick to Bush for added measure.  This seems fairly desperate but it is in keeping with the rest of Murphy's performance.  Debates can be decisive in tight elections which should give Fitzpatrick supporters cause for celebration.  Frankly, as much as I oppose Murphy,  I even expected a better performance from Murphy.

The Fitzpatrick Campaign offers a fact-check that should lay to rest any doubts about Murphy's credibility or competence; he has neither:

PHILADELPHIA, Pa.-- In their first face-to-face encounter of the fall campaign, Mike Fitzpatrick trounced incumbent Congressman Patrick Murphy during a taping of Larry Kane's Voice of Reason earlier today.During the debate, Fitzpatrick pressed Congressman Murphy on record unemployment that more than doubled during his time in Congress.

Unable to provide any plan for economic recovery and job creation, Murphy feebly claimed that the massive $787 billion stimulus bill he championed last year has helped the economy. Additionally, to hide his record of increasing joblessness and deficit spending, Murphy grossly misstated and made up facts during the thirty-minute debate.

Murphy claimed that during the eight years of the Bush Administration, during two of which Murphy was also a member of Congress, America lost 8 million jobs. In fact, according to a Wall Street Journal study published in January of 2009, there was a net gain of 3 million jobs between January 2001 and January 2009. "Congressman Murphy has never been particularly good at counting jobs," Fitzpatrick said, "unemployment is high enough, but now Patrick Murphy is trying to make 11 million more jobs disappear."

Additionally, Murphy claimed that the North American Free Trade Agreement was enacted by a Republican Congress. In reality, NAFTA was enacted in 1993, when Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress. It was later signed into law by then President Bill Clinton, also a Democrat. "This is just a further example of how Congressman Murphy is willing to bend the truth to suit his political needs," Fitzpatrick said, "unfortunately for Congressman Murphy he can't hide the fact that unemployment is at 9.6% and he has no plan to reduce it."

The debate is scheduled to air on the Comcast Network station on Sunday, September 12th at 9:30 PM and Wednesday, September 15th at 5:30 PM.

Fitzpatrick leads Patrick Murphy PA08 by 7 points

Via Fitzpatrick for Congress on Facebook

I have been waiting for polling data from PA-08 and the results from this Public Opinion Strategies poll appears to have been worth the wait.  Mike Fitzpatrick leads Patrick Murphy by 7 points 48% - 41% in a poll of 400 likely voters conducted August 22-23, 2010.  Here are the key results:

KEY DATA

• 1. Fitzpatrick opens the fall campaign with a seven-point lead over Patrick Murphy. Former Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick starts the final push to November 2nd with a 48%-41% lead over Patrick Murphy. Fitzpatrick has an even wider lead in intensity of support, with 36% of voters saying they’re definitely voting for him versus 24% who say they’re definitely voting for Patrick Murphy.
• 2. Fitzpatrick also has a significant image advantage over Murphy.  Fitzpatrick’s image in the district is 55% favorable/16% favorable, compared to Murphy’s 51% favorable/31% unfavorable image. And, Mike also has a significant edge among Independents, with a 59%-15% favorable/unfavorable image compared to 48%- 29% for Murphy.
• 3. The political environment here has a strong GOP tilt.  Not only is Obama’s job approval here inverted (43%-53%, with 41% strongly disapproving), but the GOP candidate leads the “generic” ballot by 50%-34%, Speaker Pelosi has a very negative image (34% favorable/57% unfavorable), and both GOP statewide candidates lead here (Corbett by eleven and Toomey by eight).

I fully expect Patrick Murphy to discount the results as nothing more than an internal poll from a Republican pollster.  Still, the results seem consistent with other statewide polls such as this Franklin and Marshall poll showing Toomey with a 9 point lead among likely voters and Tom Corbett leading Democrat Dan Onorato by 11 points.  Franklin and Marshall notes:

The 2006 election year was the most recent with races for both US senate and governor in Pennsylvania. In the 2006 election, Democrats retained the governor’s office, defeated an incumbent Republican US senator, and picked up four US house seats held by Republicans. Polling in the 2006 campaign showed positive electoral indicators for Democrats that helped them to those victories.

Pennsylvania politicians are facing a distinctly different political environment than they did during the 2006 election cycle. Pessimism about the direction of the state is greater, job performance ratings for the incumbent governor are much lower, the incumbent president is unpopular, and Democrats’ advantage over Republicans in party identification and particularly voter interest has shrunk (see Table 1). While open state-wide races are often competitive in Pennsylvania, these indicators create a context where incumbent office holders will also need to be wary, particularly Democrats.

This underscores the "bottom line" emphasized in the Public Opinion Strategies memo:

Patrick Murphy’s electoral victories in this district came during the two best election years for Democrats in decades. Now that the political winds have shifted, Murphy is seeing this recently friendly district slip away. Voters have soured on President Obama and Speaker Pelosi and they’re looking for a Republican to provide a check and balance in Congress.

With an enduring favorable image in the district and the political winds at his back, Mike Fitzpatrick is well-positioned to retake his former seat on November 2nd.

Mike Fitzpatrick appears  to have momentum as he seeks to win the seat he lost to Murphy by a mere 1500 votes in 2006.  Charlie Cook cited Murphy's narrow margin of victory in 2006 as well as the shifting political winds when he recently downgraded PA08 to "toss up" status on August 17, 2010.  Time for Patrick Murphy to start packing his carpet bag.

As predicted:

Murphy's campaign manager, Tim Persico, brushed off the numbers: "Former Congressman Fitzpatrick's poll, done by Republican consultants, is as misguided as his job-killing agenda. Recent polling shows Patrick Murphy with a solid lead, which makes sense since the voters have already rejected Congressman Fitzpatrick once after he voted for all of Bush’s failed economic policies - like tax breaks to corporations that ship our jobs overseas and tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans."

As I noted above, Cook recently moved this race to "toss up" although Cook reported there was limited polling data available at the time. This was a week ago. Cook cited the close margin of the votes in 2006 and the current anti-Dem mood as justification for the change. Presumably he had seen some polling as "limited polling" is quite different than no polling, in my opinion anyway. I think it safe to assume Cook hadn't seen anything to keep Murphy in the "Lean Democrat" category. I search for polling info on the district every day. If Congressman Murphy has polling data showing Murphy with a solid lead let's see it. I am assuming when Cook and other prognosticators see Murphy's solid lead they'll switch the race rating in Murphy's favor. Until then I take anything coming from the Murphy camp with the same grain of salt I give his newfound ability to break with his party.

There were a few interesting reactions to this poll on Twitter as well. It looks as though only Murphy's spokesman is discounting the poll:

More "All is well" from the DCCC

Via Memeorandum

Democrats appear determined to continue hypnotizing their fundraising base with the notion there is absolutely no chance they will lose the House this year.   Greg Sargent dutifully offered his space at The Washington Post to assist Democrats in spreading the good news that hopes for a continued Democratic majority are far from dead.  Sargent offers a secret memo obtained through an unnamed source which the reader is expected to accept as "a window on Dem thinking about the political landscape in a difficult year." Sargent notes two key points:

 First, Republicans simply can't put enough seats in play to win the House. Second, the Tea Party has become a massive liability nationally in multiple unappreciated ways.

Make no mistake, much of this memo is sheer unadulterated garbage intended to calm fears and keep the cash flowing to the massive Democratic war chests.

On the left, Charlie Cook adds up the Democrats' math and finds the scenario plausible if Democrats maintain their financial advantage while Nate Silver tears to shreds the faulty assumptions and desperate math contained in the memo in a post titled, "It's Like Mathematically Unpossible for Republicans to Win the House, or Something."(language warning applies)  On the right Michael Barone finds Democrats poised to take a "thumping."  Bruce McQuain sums it up:

This memo has Nancy Pelosi – who we all know is a math whiz – written all over it. She took great exception to Robert Gibbs saying a week or so ago it was possible that the Democrats may lose the House in November. This is her wacky reasoning to a tee.

Though the first part of the memo seems to be discredited on the left and the right, the argument the tea party is a massive liability enjoys no such agreement.  Both Silver and Matthew Sheffield make the point that on a "macro view" the tea party has successfully rebranded conservative ideas.  Silver, however, takes some heart in the notion the tea party may be costing Republicans "a few opportunities where inexperienced and/or wacky candidates are nominated," citing Sharron Angle and Rand Paul as examples.  Perhaps this inspired Sheffield to caution tea party backed candidates to be careful when discussing ideas that are not widely understood by the general electorate.   With or without the tea party, Democrats have little else to offer in the way of substantive debate.  They certainly can't run on their accomplishments.  This leaves the "we may be incompetent but they're crazy," strategy as their only viable path to avoid complete annihilation in November.

Bruce McQuain points to the most credible argument in the DCCC memo.  The greatest risk to conservative hopes Pelosi will be forced to surrender her gavel comes from third party candidates who will surely split the vote and potentially hand Democrats a win in hotly contested elections.  In my own district one libertarian candidate decided to drop from the race in order to avoid being the spoiler while another perennial candidate prefers to indulge his narcissistic fantasy, "the country needs him."  While this candidate has no serious chance of winning the election he has pulled as many as 6000 votes from the Republican candidate in previous elections.  Consider that the Republican candidate Mike Fitzpatrick lost his seat to the current incumbent Patrick Murphy in 2006 by a mere 1500 votes.  In the 7th Congressional District Jim Schneller is working to have himself listed on the ballot as an Independent though the Independence Hall Tea Party has wisely endorsed the Republican front runner Pat Meehan.  Vulnerable Democratic incumbents everywhere are dreaming they will be blessed with spoiler candidates to split the vote of the enthused conservatives they know intend to vote in November.

At this point in the race, polling information that could provide a clearer picture of the size of the tide Democrats fear most is in short supply.  What we have seen thus far gives us ample reason to hope the tide is on our side as Michael Barone seems to believe:

Today a lot more Democratic incumbents seem to be trailing Republican challengers in polls. Jim Geraghty of National Review Online has compiled a list of 13 Democratic incumbents trailing in polls released over the past seven weeks.

Some of these poll numbers are mind-boggling. Tom Perriello, a 727-vote winner in Virginia 5 in 2008, has been running two weeks of humorous ads showing what a hard worker he is. A poll shows him trailing Republican state Sen. Robert Hurt 58 to 35 percent.

In industrial Ohio 13, which Barack Obama carried 57 to 42, a poll shows incumbent Betty Sutton trailing free-spending Republican Tom Ganley 44 to 31 percent.

As Geraghty notes, we haven't seen polls released by many other Democrats on Republican target lists. Most are conducting polls; many have reason to release favorable results if they're available. This looks like a case where the absence of evidence is evidence of absence.

Whether these early polls accurately reflect a sea change for Democrats will surely be tested as we get closer to November.  Perhaps if the races are closer those tempted to indulge their ideological instincts will think better of a decision to vote for a spoiler merely to prove a point.  For now, it seems the best evidence that Democrats are in dire straits is exhibited in the continual orchestrated effort to hypnotize their base with the frantic message "All is well."

Patrick Murphy PA08 - "This is not a town hall"

Big Hat Tip to Midnight Blue for this choice little video clip of Patrick "Patlosi" Murphy who was unable to find a way to duck his constituents at an event this past Saturday.  Murphy has a long history of avoiding direct meetings with his constituents.  When Congressmen and women across the United States took heat from their constituents last summer over health care, Congressman Murphy was attending the "Netroots Nation" convention instead.    Though the local paper urged Murphy to grant his constituents face time with their Congressman,  Mr. Murphy barely managed to phone it in  with AARP representative Ray Landis handling a good portion of the questions.

It looks as though his constituents decided to bring the town hall to him instead.  Murphy would have none of that though.   Murphy repeatedly rejects the idea to address the group saying "this is not a town hall."  Oh please, heaven forbid.  That doesn't stop Congressman Murphy from claiming he has held town halls, however. I wonder if these secret events were held in San Francisco or did the "Netroots Nation" convention count as a town hall?

The highlight of the clip comes when a flustered Murphy completely loses the floor to his challenger Mike Fitzpatrick.  Mike Fitzpatrick addressed the disappointed group after Murphy refused to address them. What a refreshing contrast to Murphy.   Hillbuzz posted this video adding, "Patrick Murphy in Pennsylvania sure looks like toast to us."  From your lips, as the saying goes.... please.

58 Democratic Seats in Play Including 12 New Seats - UPDATED

Scroll down for update
Ed Morrissey  noticed the NYT buried some good news  for Republicans in an article highlighting the explosion of new candidates entering the field for Congressional seats in November.  While much of the Times article focuses on the potential obstacles Republicans may face from heated primaries, the interesting news comes from Stewart Rothenberg about half way through the article:

Stuart Rothenberg, a political analyst who follows Congressional races, said a report he will release Monday will count 58 Democratic House seats in play, up from 47 in December. The number of Republican seats in play has held at 14 in that period, he said. And Democrats expect more of their incumbents to retire, which could put additional seats at risk.

Rothenberg list a total of 72 seats in play adding 12 new seats from those considered safe to either favored Democrats or leans Democrat.  Here is a list of the 12 seats:

• WV 1 (Mollohan, D) * Moved from  safe to leans democrat
• AZ 8 (Giffords, D) *
• CO 3 (Salazar, D) *
• CA 11 (McNerney, D) *
• IA 3 (Boswell, D)
• NY 13 (McMahon, D) *
• ND A-L (Pomeroy, D) *
• NJ 3 (Adler, D) *
• PA 4 (Altmire, D) *
• PA 8 (Murphy, D) *
• PA 17 (Holden, D) *
• VA 9 (Boucher, D) *

As mentioned in a previous post, Chris Wysocki at Wyblog noted former Eagles tackle Jon Runyan has already put his hat in the ring for NJ's 3rd Congressional District.  Patrick Murphy (PA 8) is facing a wealth of challengers including a rematch from Mike Fitzpatrick.  Fitzpatrick was quoted in the Times article on the flood of candidates entering the field nationwide after last week's upset in Massachusetts:

“I think it was inspiring and gave voice to a lot of people,” said Mike Fitzpatrick, a former one-term Republican congressman from the Philadelphia suburbs who announced on Saturday that he would try to reclaim his old seat from Representative Patrick J. Murphy, a Democrat.

 Murphy must be feeling some heat, he will be hosting a State of the Union party this Wednesday and will be joined by conference call from Obama campaign manager David Plouffe.   Thomas Jefferson Club blog has the details:

State of the Union Watch Party-Lower Bucks (State of the Union Watch Party)

On January 27th, Organizing for America (OFA) supporters and volunteers across the country will gather together to watch the President’s State of the Union Address.

Join OFA friends, catch up with volunteers from the campaign, and meet new folks at our State of the Union Watch Party!

The party begins at 7:30PM. At 8:15, we’ll be joined, via conference call, by David Plouffe, the Obama for America campaign manager, to help plan for what comes next.

The President’s State of the Union address begins at 9:00PM.
We’ll have some refreshments but feel free to bring a snack or dessert to share.
For more info contact amjordan99@comcast.net

Time:	Wednesday, January 27 from 7:30 PM – 10:30 PM
Host:	Ann Marie Jordan
Location:	Patrick Murphy for Congress (Bristol, PA) 327 Mill Street Bristol, PA 19007

That is the draw? David Plouffe and bring your own snacks or desserts, hardly seems like the antidote to Democratic complacency and real Republican momentum.  Rothenberg acknowledges the Republican momentum and is unwilling to discount the possibility Republicans can pick up enough seats to retake the House though he does his best to downplay the potential as well:

In addition, we can no longer dismiss the possibility of a Republican wave so large that Democrats could lose their House majority. We stress, however, that we currently expect Republicans to fall short of the 40 seats they would need. Scott Brown’s victory in Massachusetts doesn’t mean that every Republican candidate will win in November.

Republicans may not win every election in November but Rothenberg's own list puts enough seats in play with room to spare.

Note:  Thomas Jefferson Club blog notes American's for Prosperity is hosting a State of the Union Party on Wednesday as well.  Jeff McGeary, president and co-founder of The Thomas Jefferson Club is also making a run against Murphy.  You see his website here.  The blog also lists the other fine candidates who were inspired to challenge Murphy when the leading analysts considered the race a lock for Murphy.  I plan to follow the race closely and will provide more information on the fine candidates who stepped forward to serve Bucks County.
UPDATE:  Via Allahpundit
Cook Political Report puts Murphy's seat in Lean's Democratic which clearly puts it in play given his assessment of the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats:

If this level remains constant, you can count on the Democratic majority in the House being toast this fall.

Also Nate Silver

 Think others are too conservative on projecting GOP gains. We don't have a House model yet, but GOP seems as likely as not to take House.