More "All is well" from the DCCC

Via Memeorandum

Democrats appear determined to continue hypnotizing their fundraising base with the notion there is absolutely no chance they will lose the House this year.   Greg Sargent dutifully offered his space at The Washington Post to assist Democrats in spreading the good news that hopes for a continued Democratic majority are far from dead.  Sargent offers a secret memo obtained through an unnamed source which the reader is expected to accept as "a window on Dem thinking about the political landscape in a difficult year." Sargent notes two key points:

 First, Republicans simply can't put enough seats in play to win the House. Second, the Tea Party has become a massive liability nationally in multiple unappreciated ways.

Make no mistake, much of this memo is sheer unadulterated garbage intended to calm fears and keep the cash flowing to the massive Democratic war chests.

On the left, Charlie Cook adds up the Democrats' math and finds the scenario plausible if Democrats maintain their financial advantage while Nate Silver tears to shreds the faulty assumptions and desperate math contained in the memo in a post titled, "It's Like Mathematically Unpossible for Republicans to Win the House, or Something."(language warning applies)  On the right Michael Barone finds Democrats poised to take a "thumping."  Bruce McQuain sums it up:

This memo has Nancy Pelosi – who we all know is a math whiz – written all over it. She took great exception to Robert Gibbs saying a week or so ago it was possible that the Democrats may lose the House in November. This is her wacky reasoning to a tee.

Though the first part of the memo seems to be discredited on the left and the right, the argument the tea party is a massive liability enjoys no such agreement.  Both Silver and Matthew Sheffield make the point that on a "macro view" the tea party has successfully rebranded conservative ideas.  Silver, however, takes some heart in the notion the tea party may be costing Republicans "a few opportunities where inexperienced and/or wacky candidates are nominated," citing Sharron Angle and Rand Paul as examples.  Perhaps this inspired Sheffield to caution tea party backed candidates to be careful when discussing ideas that are not widely understood by the general electorate.   With or without the tea party, Democrats have little else to offer in the way of substantive debate.  They certainly can't run on their accomplishments.  This leaves the "we may be incompetent but they're crazy," strategy as their only viable path to avoid complete annihilation in November.

Bruce McQuain points to the most credible argument in the DCCC memo.  The greatest risk to conservative hopes Pelosi will be forced to surrender her gavel comes from third party candidates who will surely split the vote and potentially hand Democrats a win in hotly contested elections.  In my own district one libertarian candidate decided to drop from the race in order to avoid being the spoiler while another perennial candidate prefers to indulge his narcissistic fantasy, "the country needs him."  While this candidate has no serious chance of winning the election he has pulled as many as 6000 votes from the Republican candidate in previous elections.  Consider that the Republican candidate Mike Fitzpatrick lost his seat to the current incumbent Patrick Murphy in 2006 by a mere 1500 votes.  In the 7th Congressional District Jim Schneller is working to have himself listed on the ballot as an Independent though the Independence Hall Tea Party has wisely endorsed the Republican front runner Pat Meehan.  Vulnerable Democratic incumbents everywhere are dreaming they will be blessed with spoiler candidates to split the vote of the enthused conservatives they know intend to vote in November.

At this point in the race, polling information that could provide a clearer picture of the size of the tide Democrats fear most is in short supply.  What we have seen thus far gives us ample reason to hope the tide is on our side as Michael Barone seems to believe:

Today a lot more Democratic incumbents seem to be trailing Republican challengers in polls. Jim Geraghty of National Review Online has compiled a list of 13 Democratic incumbents trailing in polls released over the past seven weeks.

Some of these poll numbers are mind-boggling. Tom Perriello, a 727-vote winner in Virginia 5 in 2008, has been running two weeks of humorous ads showing what a hard worker he is. A poll shows him trailing Republican state Sen. Robert Hurt 58 to 35 percent.

In industrial Ohio 13, which Barack Obama carried 57 to 42, a poll shows incumbent Betty Sutton trailing free-spending Republican Tom Ganley 44 to 31 percent.

As Geraghty notes, we haven't seen polls released by many other Democrats on Republican target lists. Most are conducting polls; many have reason to release favorable results if they're available. This looks like a case where the absence of evidence is evidence of absence.

Whether these early polls accurately reflect a sea change for Democrats will surely be tested as we get closer to November.  Perhaps if the races are closer those tempted to indulge their ideological instincts will think better of a decision to vote for a spoiler merely to prove a point.  For now, it seems the best evidence that Democrats are in dire straits is exhibited in the continual orchestrated effort to hypnotize their base with the frantic message "All is well."

NPR poll lets the air out of the well-worn tires of the DCCC's "Red to Blue" express

Yesterday, The Hill reported on the "offensive" opportunities Democrats have identified as targeted seats to change from "Red to Blue." Even the left-leaning Swing State Project found this bravado a bit much noting, "Or maybe they should be calling it "Keeping Blue Blue." In truth, the DCCC list targets four Republican held seats while the remaining 7 are open seats. Among the seats the DCCC plans to target are HI-01 Charles Djou, MN-06 Michelle Bachmann, MO-08 Jo Ann Emerson, and PA-06 Jim Gerlach.

The latest Public Opinion Strategies poll lets the air out of the patched tires on the "Red to Blue" express.    The poll targeted 70 battleground districts including 10 currently held by Republicans.  While the DCCC blusters on about their "offensive" strategy, the poll results indicate they have a tough road ahead on offense and defense:

The results are a wake-up call for Democrats whose loses in the House could well exceed 30 seats. In the named-congressional ballot in the 60 Democratic districts, Democrats trail their Republican opponent, 42 to 47 percent, with only a third saying they want to vote to-relect their member. In the top tier of 30 most competitive seats, the Democratic candidate trails by 9 points (39 to 48 percent) and by 2 points in the next tier of 30 seats (45 to 47 percent). On the other hand, the Republican candidates are running well ahead in their most competitive seats ( 53 to 37 percent). 

So much for that anti-incumbent mood the media loves to promote.  The districts of Djou, Bachmann and Gerlach were included in this group that was running well ahead.  Though the poll doesn't give a specific breakdown for each of the districts included in the study, both the Bachmann and Gerlach races are listed as likely Republican according to Cook Political Report.  The newly-elected Republican in Obama's home district is listed as toss-up but the newly-anointed "Red to Blue" candidate Colleen Hanabusa was the DCCC's second choice.  Hanabusa had been urged to drop from the race for the Democratic nomination.

The poll paints a picture of an electorate that is fired up against Democrats and the failed economic policies of the Obama administration.(see this power point of survey graphs )  These results likely explain why some included in the DCCC's "Red to Blue" program are resorting to the strategy used to elect the poseur Blue Dog candidates in 2006 and 2008.  State Senator Joyce Elliott, who is running for the AR-02 seat, is a perfect example:

Also behind a paywall (at the Hotline) is this tidbit that state Sen. Joyce Elliott (D) said she "doesn't know" whether she'd support Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House. Elliott, who has a liberal reputation, probably has some re-positioning to do to remain competitive in this race, but is acting Pelosi-agnostic really plausible? Even Mike Oliverio eventually backed down from this perch - and he's infinitely more conservative than Elliott.

Even if Democrats were able to pull the wool over a few more eyes with a another faux-conservative they face other hurdles pointed out in the poll:.

The effort by individual campaigns will have to push against walls that seem very hard to move at this point. We tested Democratic and Republican arguments on the economy, health care, financial reform and the big picture for the 2010 election. The results consistently favored the Republicans and closely resembled the vote breakdown. Democrats are hurt by a combined lack of enthusiasm and an anti-incumbent tone. 

 Much more on the NPR poll at Memeorandum

Happy New Year - Another Dem Recruit Heads for the Hills

The Hill reports, they're dropping like flies :

Democrats have lost yet another touted recruit, this time in Kansas.

State Sen. Laura Kelly (D) just announced her withdrawal from the race to face Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R-Kan.). She becomes the fifth formidable recruit to bow out in recent weeks.

“I have been forced to make a decision between honoring the pledge I made to the people in my Senate district and my firm conviction that the people of the 2nd congressional district deserve a truly independent voice in Congress," Kelly said in a statement.

“This has been a very hard decision, but it is the right one.”

Laura Kelly was cited in a late October DCCC memo lauding the Democrats' recruiting success for the coming 2010 midterm elections.  Must be like a cold bucket of water on the Speaker of the House who was willing to sacrifice some of her Blue Dogs  in order to ram her left-wing agenda through the House.    We'll be looking forward to taking her broom in surrender come November.

Via Memeorandum

It's Beginning to Look a lot Like 1994

Politico reports Republicans are winning the recruiting battle for the coming 2010 midterms while Democrats see candidates dropping out of tough races. Democratic members of Congress who thought themselves assured reelection are finding themselves facing tougher prospects for reelection.

But in 2010, defense is the name of the game for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is defending several dozens vulnerable freshmen and second-term members, while also protecting veteran members who could find themselves in newfound trouble. It will be a lot more challenging for a first-time candidate running in a tough district to get financial support from the DCCC when the party is worried about defending its own.

Politico cites examples of strong candidates who might be poised in a more favorable political environment to give Democrats a few choice pick-ups, who chose instead to withdraw:

Over the last week, three Democratic candidates touted by national strategists abruptly withdrew from their races: Solano Beach Councilman Dave Roberts (running against California Rep. Brian Bilbray), state Rep. Todd Book (running against Ohio Rep. Jean Schmidt) and Tennessee Commerce and Insurance Commissioner Paula Flowers (in the seat held by retiring Rep. Zach Wamp).


In a neutral political environment, the seats held by Bilbray, Schmidt, and the open Tennessee seat would be enticing targets for Democrats. Democrats aggressively contested the first two seats in both 2006 and 2008, and experienced unexpected success in Southern open seats over the last two elections.

 The political winds have indeed changed.  Locally I can add Patrick Murphy (D, PA-8) has Republicans coming out of the woodwork to oppose him in 2010.  Recently a former Bucks County prosecutor and Marine reservist Dean Malik announced he would seek the GOP endorsement.  A moderate Warrington PA resident Jeffrey Schott had already announced his intentions to seek the GOP nomination.  The two candidates are not alone according to the Morning Call:

Malik and Schott may have competition for the coveted GOPendorsement. Patricia Poprik, vice chairman of the Bucks County Republican Committee, said at least eight people have contacted party leaders about running.

Though Murphy is not on the NRCC targeted list, the current political mood suggests there are no safe seats and Murphy should know this better than anyone.  In 2006 he unseated incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick (R) when the tides had clearly turned against Republicans.  Consider the eight hoping to challenge Murphy a sign of the times.

UPDATE- Linked at Examiner.com by Beth Hegedus "Montgomery County Republican Examiner"  Thank you and welcome Examiner readers!

Update II:  Via Memeorandum  Hotline on Call reports that a second leading Blue Dog is retiring.   This second retirement in a matter of days is a harbinger of some bad times ahead for Democrats:

Indeed, Hotline's Amy Walter wrote last week that, of all potential Dem retirements, a Tanner announcement would send the biggest shockwave through the party. After all, the thinking goes, if a longtime leader of the Blue Dogs decides now is the time to hang it up, what does that say for others in his position (like MO's Ike Skelton, AR's Marion Berry or WV's Alan Mollohan)? They've all skated to re-election in recent cycles, yet all saw their CDs go quite strongly to McCain.

 Karl in The Greenroom has an excellent post on this topic citing recent polling from PPP ( a Democratic pollster) that shows a large bloc of  Democratic voters think the party is too liberal:

In fact, it is larger than the bloc of Democrats think their party’s too conservative. Yet there remains a body of opinion on the Left that thinks going Left is somehow going to help the party in the 2010 midterms. It turns out that it may not help them with Democrats, let alone Independents.

DCCC Fuel For the Turkey Day Food Fight

As you head out over the river and through the woods to grandmother's house for a fine Thanksgiving turkey, consider yourself forewarned that cousin Cathy and Aunt Alice, the family flaming libs, have been armed with Democrat talking points to stoke the fire in the annual Thanksgiving political brawl.   Control issues much?  The downloadable cheat sheet gives a list of potential myths the family conservatives might trot out and supplies the family liberals with "facts" for effective "myth-busting."


 First off, the term myths, as used by liberals, requires an Inigo Montoya retort: " You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."  The cheat sheet begins with the "myth" "Democrats haven't done anything this year."  The DCCC provides the following facts to prove "House Democrats and President Obama have delivered more progress for America this year than George Bush and the Republicans did in the last eight."  For your convenience I have included a sample snarky response, in red of course,  in case someone in the family comes bearing a  DCCC cheat sheet: