Quinnipiac's latest PA polling

Via Memeorandum

The latest Quinnipiac poll has a not-so-subtle message for PA Democrats who go to the polls in 5 days: "Although the Quinnipiac poll of likely Democratic primary voters finds that many more think Sen. Arlen Specter is the better general election candidate, Congressman Joe Sestak actually runs a good deal better against Toomey in a trial heat."   While it is possible Sestak could offer Democrats a more competitive candidate than Specter in the general election, the internals of the poll suggest a contest between Sestak and Toomey would largely be a battle between two unknown candidates.

Sestak's favorability ratings have increased in recent polls but 52% of respondents didn't know enough about him to offer an opinion.  Toomey's favorability ratings show 60% of respondents didn't know enough about him as well.  Nevertheless, in a hypothetical race between Toomey and Sestak, Toomey has a 2 point lead.   The mood in PA is clearly anti-Democrat as much as it is anti-incumbent.  Approval ratings for Barack Obama and Ed Rendell suggest Pennsylvanians have had their fill of Democratic policies.  


While Sestak is largely unknown, his vote on health care may prove to be a liability as large as Specter's incumbency.  Shortly after the health care law was passed, 65% of Pennsylvanians polled opposed the law.  As Sestak is running among his base as the true liberal candidate, how will he distance himself from health care to appeal to moderate and conservative Pennsylvanians?  Sestak has been loyal to the Democratic agenda that is clearly turning a bluish Pennsylvania purple with a strong red hue.  He is a sure Democratic vote for a Senate that is likely to remain in Democratic control.  If these are qualities that make him a stronger candidate in the general election in the minds of Democrats, it appears Democrats have little if any comprehension of the battles ahead in November.  

Quinnipiac: Still no bounce for Obama

The latest Quinnipiac poll shows Obama has not gotten a bounce from his health care legislation passage. In fact, his latest numbers show him at the lowest approval since his inauguration:

"President Barack Obama's approval rating hovers at an all-time low. The White House had predicted passage of the health care overhaul would boost his fortunes, but that has not been the case, and that legislation itself remains decidedly unpopular," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"At this point Americans are slightly more confident than not that President Obama will make a good choice for the Supreme Court, but they split with 42 percent saying the nominee will be too liberal and 42 percent saying the nominee will be about right," Brown added.

As baffling as it might seem, some Americans still have faith Obama will make the right choice to fill the Supreme Court vacancy left by John Paul Stevens' retirement. This is less baffling, however, when you examine who still has faith in Obama's judgement. Jennifer Rubin sifts through the poll data and finds Obama has all but lost the coalition that elected him:

Obama’s broad-based ideological coalition has fractured. Among liberals, 77 percent approve of his performance (accounting, no doubt, for high approval among Jews and African Americans, who are more liberal than the population as a whole), while 54 percent of moderates and only 38 percent of independents, 10 percent of Tea Partiers, and 11 percent of Republicans approve of his job performance.

Obama has essentially lost the carefully assembled, broad-based majority that elected him. He is now kept from drifting into George W. Bush–like polling by the loyalty of devoted African Americans, Jews, and liberals. It’s not a winning model for re-election, but then he hasn’t governed in a way to maintain a majority of support from Americans.

The good news for Obama, the media  will continue to cheerlead for him.  Instead of focusing on Obama's lost coalition we will see headlines gleaned from polling data that touts confidence in his ability to choose the right nominee compared to Senate Republicans.  CNN writes, "Poll: Majority say Obama will make right choice on nomination." From The Hill, we see "Voters trust Obama over GOP to make right SCOTUS pick." Perhaps Quinnipiac, CNN and The Hill haven't been made aware of the fact but Senate Republicans are not responsible for picking Supreme Court nominees.  I remain dumbfounded why any pollster bothers to survey such questions.

Health care remains decidedly unpopular with 53% disapproving of the legislation while 39% approve.  Perhaps this explains why Obama has stopped talking about health care.  No doubt his cheerleading media will oblige him and drop the issue from their headlines.

New Quinnipiac Poll Has Obama at 50%

Bloomburg.com has a report a new Quinnipiac poll has President Obama's approval at 50%. The report notes growing economic concerns as well as concerns about health care reform have eroded Obama's support:

Exactly half of the registered voters surveyed from July 27 to Aug. 3 by Quinnipiac said they approve of the job Obama is doing, compared with 42 percent who disapprove. That’s down from 57 percent approval and 33 percent disapproval in a poll taken in late June, according to results released today.

That's 50% approve with 42% disapprove, that's startling. Peter Brown, assistant director of Quinnipiac polling, remarked, A “willingness to give him the benefit of the doubt is, among some voters, evaporating.”
Voters were found to disapprove of the way Obama is handling the economy by 49 percent to 45 percent. On health-care reform, 52 percent disapprove while 39 percent approve.