Friday, January 15, 2010

Brown Leads by Four in Suffolk University Poll

The Boston Herald reports the shocking findings of a Suffolk University/7News poll showing Scott Brown with a four, count em 4, point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley. It's a Brown out:
Although Brown’s 4-point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley is within the Suffolk University/7News survey’s margin of error, the underdog’s position at the top of the results stunned even pollster David Paleologos.

“It’s a Brown-out,” said Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center. “It’s a massive change in the political landscape.”…

Paleologos said bellweather models show high numbers of independent voters turning out on election day, which benefits Brown, who has 65 percent of that bloc compared to Coakley’s 30 percent. Kennedy earns just 3 percent of the independent vote, and 1 percent are undecided…

Yet even in the bluest state, it appears Kennedy’s quest for universal health care has fallen out of favor, with 51 percent of voters saying they oppose the “national near-universal health-care package” and 61 percent saying they believe the government cannot afford to pay for it.
Here are a few of the highlights from the poll:

  • Brown wins among men and is only trailing by 5 to Coakley among women
  • Brown has 91% of registered Republicans plus an additional 17% of Democrats
  • Most perilous for Coakley who needs voters motivated to come to the polls 64% believe she will win.  This is likely to suppress her vote while Brown's support is highly motivated to show up at the polls.
  • Brown has a solid 57% favorability but only 19% unfavorable while Coakley's unfavorables are 41%.  Coakley's favorables are at 49%.  
  • Brown's name recognition problem has all but been erased; 95% recognize his name statewide.
  • When asked whether Coakley would represent an independent voice 64% believed she would tow the party line.
  • 51% opposed the health care plan and 61% believed the government cannot afford to pay for the plan if enacted.  

Charlie Cook tells NRO, Brown just might win
“There is something big going on in Massachusetts,” says political analyst Charlie Cook in a conversation with National Review Online. He tells us that he’s “convinced” that Republican Scott Brown “really might win” the upcoming special election for U.S. Senate in the Bay State. Brown, he says, has run a “flawless, very smart campaign” while his opponent, Democrat Martha Coakley, has been “overly cautious” and run an “awful campaign.”

Earlier today both Cook and Rothenberg  moved the race to the toss up category.  Oh and the poll showed 99% have made up their mind on their vote.  Too early for popping the champagne corks but not too early to  consider putting a bottle on ice just in case.

H/T: Memeorandum

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