Fear and Loathing in Taxachusetts

John Fund of the Wall Street Journal is dreaming of a GOP upset in Taxachessets.  Though it still is a bit of a climb he could just get his wish.   The latest Rasmussen poll shows GOP candidate Scott Brown within 9 points of Kennedy-anointed candidate Martha Coakley.  This news must surely have sent some fear and loathing to Democrats banking on a Coakley win in the upcoming special election to replace the late Senator Kennedy's seat in the Senate on January 19.

Here is an interview of Brown by CNBC's Larry Kudlow explaining why this vote is so important; hint electing Brown could stop ObamaCare:



Rasmussen's poll shows some real strengths for Brown leading into the last two weeks before the special election:

Twenty-one percent (21%) of those likely to vote in the special election have a very favorable opinion of Coakley, while 22% have a Very Unfavorable view.

For Brown, the numbers are 25% very favorable and 5% very unfavorable.

Special elections are typically decided by who shows up to vote and it is clear from the data that Brown’s supporters are more enthusiastic. In fact, among those who are absolutely certain they will vote, Brown pulls to within two points of Coakley. That suggests a very low turnout will help the Republican and a higher turnout is better for the Democrat.

In 2006, Massachusetts implemented its own statewide version of health care reform which has been cited as a model for the national plan. But just 32% of the state’s voters consider that reform a success. Thirty-six percent (36%) consider the plan a failure, and another 32% are not sure.

Despite the creation of a statewide health plan in part to address rising costs, most Massachusetts voters (54%) say cost is still the biggest problem with health care. Twenty-four percent (24%) cite a lack of universal coverage, while 11% say it’s the quality of care. Just three percent (3%) complain of the inconvenience of scheduling.

Another strong point for Brown is found in his 44 point lead among Independent voters.   Professor Jacobson, who has been covering this race extensively, has been sensing some problems for Coakley:

This is better than I expected for Brown. Coakley has been a statewide figure for years, and has much better name recognition, SEIU and other union support, and the Massachusetts Democratic machine behind her. Obama won the state by over 20%, and Coakley should have had at least a mid-teens lead at this point.

But as I have noted, Coakley's tactic of acting like the election already is over may be backfiring. While Brown was hitting the pavement the past three weeks, Coakley took a six day vacation. Wrong message. Coakley is ducking a one-on-one debate with Brown. Wrong message.

I sensed Coakley was in trouble when her campaign recently overstated the strength of her fundraising, making it seem as if she had far outraised Brown post-primary. It appears that most of Coakley's fundraising strength was pre-primary, when she used the abortion issue to rally the liberal base to contribute. Coakley then went back on her promise not to vote for the Senate health bill if it contained abortion restrictions.

This is still going to be tough, but electing a Republican to replace Ted Kennedy would send such shockwaves to Democrats in Congress that the battle is well worth the effort.  Consider the Karmic justice after Democrats turned Benedict Arlen, counted their way to seating Al Franken and then changed the rules in Massachusetts just so they could ram ObamaCare through without negotiating with Republicans.

Now is the time to click your Ruby Slippers and make some magic in Massachusetts.  Donate to Scott Brown; any amount will help.   Support him on Facebook, he posts there frequently and offers other ways to get involved.  This is the election to step up and get involved, the stakes are high but the reward would be massive.