Sunday, April 25, 2010

Polling in PA 12 Special Election "Dead Heat" - UPDATED

UPDATE: Tim Burns'  campaign could use volunteers to help get out the message to the undecided voters that will help win this election. Money, of course, helps too. This is an important election and one that will hurt to lose especially in light of the following poll results.  Get involved and help win this one for the good guys.  Please consider volunteering to make calls from home.  You don't have to be in the district to help.  

American Action Network  conducted a poll in the special election to fill the seat vacant since the death of John Murtha in Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional district.  The election will be held when Pennsylvanians' go to the polls on May 18th to vote for their primary candidates.  The poll shows the two candidates, Republican Tim Burns and Democrat Mark Critz in a statistical dead heat.  Burns captures 39% of the 300 likely voters responding to the poll while Critz leads by a single point.  The poll has a 5.6% margin of error.  Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by a margin of 2 to 1 but the area voted against Democrats in the last presidential election.  The percentage of undecided voters at the time of the poll was a sizable 21%.

The special election is being closely watched in Washington.  If the news from this poll is an indicator, a win by the Democrat would be very far from a nod of support for the Obama administration or this Democratic Congress.  Obama's disapproval in this poll was a staggering 68% with 53% of Democrats disapproving.  Nancy Pelosi is even more unpopular with 76% disapproval.  Support for the health care legislation is dismal news for Democrats, 11% strongly approve with just 21% expressing they somewhat approve of the law.    There is nothing but bad news for Democrats as far as the eye can see in the poll:
The majority of voters (52%) would prefer a Republican congressman who will be a check and balance to Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress over a Democratic congressman who will help Obama and the Democrats pass their agenda (40%). Nine in ten Republicans (90%), six in ten Independents (60%) and even a third of Democrats (32%) prefer a Republican congressman. Three in four voters (75%) agree that if Washington isn’t going to listen to people like them, they will send a message on Election Day by voting against the people in power in Washington. Agreement with this sentiment transcends party lines as the majority of Republicans (96%), Democrats (64%) and Independents (80%) agrees that they will send a message to Washington with their vote. Similarly, 71% of voters agree that if the policies and changes being forced on them from Washington are not stopped, their children and grandchildren will not enjoy the same freedoms and opportunities that previous generations of Americans have enjoyed.
Hotline on Call notes the GOP plans on running ads highlighting the Democratic candidates' connections with Pelosi and Obama. It's probably a safe bet Obama won't be making a campaign stop in Pennsylvania for this election. What a shame.

1 comment:

  1. Thanks for this update.

    Something tells me that Democrats are going to be less motivated to get to the polls than the angry Independents and Republicans.

    I hope Pennsylvania comes through on this one. PA sure was anxious to hand us Obama.


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