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Sunday, June 6, 2010

Good News From Pennsylvania

Besides the Flyers tying the Stanley Cup Series, that is. David Freddoso reports the Republican candidate for Governor has a hefty lead over Democrat Dan Onorato. The latest Rasmussen survey  shows Corbett with 49% while Onorato had the support of 33% of those surveyed.  The grim news for Democrats goes beyond the race for Governor though.  The truly important races this year will be those that give control over redistricting after the census:
Republicans hold a 30-20 majority in Pennsylvania’s state Senate, whereas Democrats narrowly control the state House, 103-97. If Republicans can pick up four House seats, then a Corbett victory at the top of the ticket gives them control over redistricting, just as they enjoyed in 2001.

In this year’s U.S. House elections, Republicans are finding Pennsylvania a target-rich environment. Among the possible targets: Democratic Reps. Kathleen Dahlkemper, Paul Kanjorski, Mark Critz, Tim Holden, Jason Altmire, Patrick Murphy and Chris Carney, in addition to the open seat left behind by Joe Sestak. (Many of these seats were held by Republicans until 2006, but Republicans were a bit too ambitious with redistricting in 2001 and left them too vulnerable.)
Let's hope the Republicans who did the redistricting in 2001 learned some lessons from that experience.  While trying to preserve a strong district for Republican Tim Murphy, they made a mess of the already messy PA 12 Murtha district.  Taking bits of Northeast Philadelphia and adding them on to PA8 paved the way for Patrick Murphy to unseat Mike Fitzpatrick in 2006.  The good news is Fitzpatrick has another challenge against Murphy this year.  More good news, should Republicans gain control over the redistricting this year, they have the potential to knock one Democrat left standing after the midterms.  Pennsylvania is expected to lose one seat in Congress and many believe that it will likely be the former Murtha district that disappears.

3 comments:

  1. Oh, this is welcome news!

    Question: If the Murtha district goes, where will all those dyed-in-the-wool Murtha sheepsters likely be districted? Will their influence weaken the chances of Republican wins in the now adjacent districts?

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  2. I think they tried to keep Tim Murphy's district very Republican. I would guess, since it neighbors Murtha's they will do something to make that district absorb some of the sheepsters. I was looking at the map and found it a tough task but the area is overall more conservative than not. I hope they get it right.

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