Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Reading tea leaves in the Nevada early vote

From the crystal ball at Politico:
Early-voting numbers out of Nevada’s two biggest counties could spell trouble for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in his tough contest against Republican Sharron Angle.

In Reno’s Washoe County and Las Vegas’s Clark County, Republican turnout was disproportionately high over the first three voting days, according to local election officials. The two counties together make up 86 percent of the state’s voter population.

The sparsely populated counties outside Clark and Washoe, which have yet to report complete early-voting results, are strongly Republican.
One obvious problem with early voting is it tends to tell Dems how many dead voters they need to dig up on election day.   Still, the early vote confirms that Republicans are enthusiastic and shows Independents breaking for Republicans.  This was not the case in 2008:
Statewide, Democrats have an edge of about 60,000 registered voters more than Republicans, but that represents a decline from 2008, when their advantage was over 100,000.

The Democratic turnout machine that powered President Obama to a 12-percentage-point victory in Nevada was kept in place after the 2008 election to work for Reid's reelection this year. But early figures in the first few days of the 2008 voting strongly favored Democrats.

"Harry Reid has spent millions of dollars on the Nevada Democratic Party turnout machine, and it's really, really good," Erwin, the GOP consultant, said. "But with independents breaking heavily for Republicans, Democrats are going to have to overperform their registration advantage to win this year."
Let's not give Democrats a chance to overperform their registration please.  It's time to close the deal and send Senator Angle to DC.  Be the wave help Sharron GOTV

Allahpundit has more as does Memeorandum

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