Sunday, January 17, 2010

PPP latest poll Brown leads 51-46

Wow Of course as a left leaning pollster PPP suggests Coakley could still pull this out as Democrats have started to take more interest in the race. I think they might be able to stop by the nearest cemetary and dig up the rest of the votes, but I digress. Here are the key findings of the PPP poll:
-Brown is up 64-32 with independents and is winning 20% of the vote from people who supported Barack Obama in 2008 while Coakley is getting just 4% of the McCain vote.

-Brown's voters continue to be much more enthusiastic than Coakley's. 80% of his say they're 'very excited' about voting Tuesday while only 60% of hers express that sentiment. But the likely electorate now reports having voted for Barack Obama by 19 points, up from 16 a week ago, and a much smaller drop from his 26 point victory in the state than was seen in Virginia.

-Those planning to turn out continue to be skeptical of the Democratic health care plan, saying they oppose it by a 48/40 margin.

-Coakley's favorability dropped from 50% to 44% after a week filled with perceived missteps. Brown's negatives went up a lot but his positives only actually went from 57% to 56%, an indication that attacks against him may have been most effective with voters already planning to support Coakley but ambivalent toward Brown.

-56% of voters in the state think Brown has made a strong case for why he should be elected while just 41% say the same of Coakley. Even among Coakley's supporters only 73% think she's made the argument for herself, while 94% of Brown's supporters think he has.
The momentum is clearly with Brown but this will all come down to turnout.  Will update with additional findings after reviewing the crosstabs.  Some initial impressions though, Brown's lead among unafilliated voters has remained consistently high across other polls.  Coakley doesn't seem to have made any inroad with those voters.  Coakley's favorability drop is 6 points yet it doesn't appear she has laid a glove on Brown.   Interesting stuff, but the only poll that matters is the one on Tuesday.


  1. This post is great news, MarySue... and linked today at Reaganite Republican:

    Go get em Scott... America's counting on you buddy!

  2. Thanks James, I linked you in my post on tingly Matthews. I have every finger and toe crossed for Scott tomorrow.


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