Oops, looks like the Gulf is Obama's Katrina

Louisianans polled by left-leaning pollster PPP answer the lingering question, is the Gulf of Mexico oil spill Obama's Katrina yet:

Our new Louisiana poll has a lot of data points to show how unhappy voters in the state are with Barack Obama's handling of the oil spill but one perhaps sums it up better than anything else- a majority of voters there think George W. Bush did a better job with Katrina than Obama's done dealing with the spill.

50% of voters in the state, even including 31% of Democrats, give Bush higher marks on that question compared to 35% who pick Obama.

Overall only 32% of Louisianans approve of how Obama has handled the spill to 62% who disapprove. 34% of those polled say they approved of how Bush dealt with Katrina to 58% who disapproved.

 Brutal, just brutal.   Perhaps another speech, scheduled to start any second now will cure Obama's Louisiana blues though I tend to doubt it.    There was one winner according to the poll, you can see the newly crowned king of the approval polls in action here. 

Live blogging the speech (aka misery loves company) over at Potluck.

Serve Our Smart, Humble & Pragmatic President Some Humble Pie

Via Via Memeorandum

Consider this your tax day comic relief.  President Obama gave an interview to Australian ABC reporter Kerry O'Brien and responds to a question on his relationship with Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.  Obama begins his response, "Kevin is somebody who I probably share as much of a world view as any world leader out there."  Obama then proceeds to describe the Prime Minister as smart, humble and pragmatic, "like me."  This is O'Brien's recollection of the candid discussion:

"It was interesting. Diplomats and politicians say nice things about each other when they're having international chats," O'Brien said.

But O'Brien says Mr Obama spoke candidly about their relationship - which has in the past been described as a "meeting of minds".

"He was quite expansive and quite genuine on what he saw as the commonality and connections between [he and Mr Rudd]. One of which was humility," O'Brien said.

To be fair, Obama seems to emphasize he shares Mr. Rudd's pragmatism in this video clip from the interview, but it is easy to see why O'Brien recalls Obama listing humility as a trait he shares with Rudd.  If Obama doesn't know the meaning of the word humility by now he may need to learn it the hard way.  The latest PPP poll shows our smart, humble and pragmatic President trailing Romney and Huckabee in a hypothetical 2012 matchup.  He ties Newt Gingrich and leads Sarah Palin by a mere two points.  The poll suggests it was neither smart nor pragmatic to pass his signature health care legislation:

Our monthly look ahead to the 2012 Presidential race finds Barack Obama more or less tied with all four of the leading candidates for the Republican nomination. He trails Mike Huckabee 47-45 and Mitt Romney 45-44, ties Newt Gingrich at 45-45, and leads Sarah Palin 47-45. This is the weakest performance Obama's posted in these 13 monthly surveys and a pretty clear indication that passing health care has not done anything to enhance his political standing, at least in the short term.

It's not that any of the Republican candidates are particularly popular, or even that Obama's approval numbers have declined. But whereas in previous months a good number of the voters disapproving of his job performance weren't ready to commit to voting Republican in 2012 yet, now 85-89% of them do in each of these hypothetical contests. That suggests that even if Obama's overall unpopularity has not increased, the intensity of it has. For instance among voters who disapprove of Obama but also have an unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin, she leads him by 22 points in a head to head contest. That wasn't necessarily the case in previous months.

 How about a nice warm slice of humble pie, Mr. President?  We'll be happy to serve that cold in November and again in 2012 if he prefers.   A guy can never get too much pie.

Miss Bush Yet?

Evidently many do miss him as proved in a recent PPP poll.  The left-leaning pollster found Americans pretty evenly divided when asked whether they would prefer to have Bush back in office or if they prefer Obama.    This is startling considering that many Republicans and Independents had turned against Bush by the time he left office:

Bush had atrocious approval ratings for his final few years in office, particularly because he lost a lot of support from Republicans and conservative leaning independents. Those folks may not have liked him but they now say they would rather have him back than Obama. 87% of GOP voters now say they would prefer Bush, a number a good deal higher than Bush's approval rating within his party toward the tail end of his Presidency. Democrats predictably go for Obama by an 86/10 margin, and independents lean toward him as well by a 49/37 spread.

Perhaps that explains the results of a hypothetical match up of President Obama and Ron Paul polled by Rasmussen:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of likely voters finds Obama with 42% support and Paul with 41% of the vote. Eleven percent (11%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

Ask the Political Class, though, and it’s a blowout. While 58% of Mainstream voters favor Paul, 95% of the Political Class vote for Obama.

But Republican voters also have decidedly mixed feelings about Paul, who has been an outspoken critic of the party establishment.  Obama earns 79% support from Democrats, but Paul gets just 66% of GOP votes. Voters not affiliated with either major party give Paul a 47% to 28% edge over the president.

 While Paul is not my preferred candidate, there is no doubt I would prefer the libertarian-leanings of Paul to Obama's far left progressive agenda.  Hopefully we find the right mix between now and 2012.  Somehow I think we will.

As always the ever-important race is the one that looms before us in November.  The good news for November comes from Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics:

That said, I think those who suggest that the House is barely in play, or that we are a long way from a 1994-style scenario are missing the mark. A 1994-style scenario is probably the most likely outcome at this point. Moreover, it is well within the realm of possibility – not merely a far-fetched scenario – that Democratic losses could climb into the 80 or 90-seat range. The Democrats are sailing into a perfect storm of factors influencing a midterm election, and if the situation declines for them in the ensuing months, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Democratic losses eclipse 100 seats…

The President’s weakness in these states reveals another problem for his party. Since he is weak in Republican areas and swing areas, and yet doesn’t have horrible approval ratings overall, he must be very, very popular among his party’s base. Some polls have his approval ratings among African Americans at 95%. Even in Massachusetts, Martha Coakley managed to win the First, Seventh and Eighth Districts, which are home to the state’s liberals and minorities.

The problem for the Democrats is that these voters are packed into a relatively few states and Congressional districts nationwide, diluting their vote share. This is why the median Congressional district is an R+2 district. Thus, the President could have a relatively healthy overall approval rating, but still be fairly unpopular in swing states and districts. The increased enthusiasm that Obama generated among minorities, the young and the liberal is useful, but only if it is realized in conjunction with Democratic approval in a few other categories.

Trende is a great analyst so read the rest.  There is a caveat, however, Trende tends to agree with other analysts that the picture could change dramatically should we head into a "V"-shaped recovery which would likely aid in boosting Obama's approval numbers.  The bad news, if you can call a "V"- recovery bad news that is, Larry Kudlow sees just that on the horizon.  I would take my chances that Democrats would still get their hats handed to them in spite of a recovery but Kudlow seems to be cheerleading the news ever since he had dinner with Obama.  There is a long way to go on unemployment and it would take a monster job producing economy to turn unemployment around by November.  The best scenario, in my opinion, the economy comes roaring back once we retake the House and maybe even the Senate too.

Stinks to be Blanche Lincoln These Days

PPP has a new poll testing the shark infested waters for Senator Blanche Lincoln (D- AR) and finds them not safe for Democrats.  PPP tested potential Democratic candidates against GOP candidate John Boozman, expected to enter the ring this week, all came up short:

That's an indication Arkansas just doesn't want to send another Democrat to Washington this year, at least at this point nine months before the election. Obama's at a 38/58 negative approval rating in the state, its voters are opposed to his health care plan by a 30/61 margin, and only 27% approve of the job Congressional Democrats are doing to 63% who disapprove. 

John Boozman leads incumbent Lincoln 56-33 in the poll.  Her approval is horrific with just 27% approving and 62% disapproving.  Among members of her own party she has a 51% approval but just 17% of Independents and 9% of Republicans approve of her performance in office.   Health care is her problem:

A look inside the health care issue gives a good indication of how Lincoln has managed now to get it from all sides. 61% of voters in the state oppose the President's plan, and among those folks Lincoln's approval rating is just 8% with 79% of them expressing the belief that she's too liberal. But she's managed to antagonize a lot of the people who support the Democratic health care plan as well- 36% of them think she's too conservative and her approval with them is just 57%. Barack Obama's at 95% with that same group of voters.


PPP admits their polling sample is slightly tilted towards the Democrats but argues the split among Dems, Independents and Republicans reflects the electorate overall.  In other words this is the best case scenario for Blanche and it is not pretty.

.

PPP latest poll Brown leads 51-46

Wow Of course as a left leaning pollster PPP suggests Coakley could still pull this out as Democrats have started to take more interest in the race. I think they might be able to stop by the nearest cemetary and dig up the rest of the votes, but I digress. Here are the key findings of the PPP poll:

-Brown is up 64-32 with independents and is winning 20% of the vote from people who supported Barack Obama in 2008 while Coakley is getting just 4% of the McCain vote.

-Brown's voters continue to be much more enthusiastic than Coakley's. 80% of his say they're 'very excited' about voting Tuesday while only 60% of hers express that sentiment. But the likely electorate now reports having voted for Barack Obama by 19 points, up from 16 a week ago, and a much smaller drop from his 26 point victory in the state than was seen in Virginia.

-Those planning to turn out continue to be skeptical of the Democratic health care plan, saying they oppose it by a 48/40 margin.

-Coakley's favorability dropped from 50% to 44% after a week filled with perceived missteps. Brown's negatives went up a lot but his positives only actually went from 57% to 56%, an indication that attacks against him may have been most effective with voters already planning to support Coakley but ambivalent toward Brown.

-56% of voters in the state think Brown has made a strong case for why he should be elected while just 41% say the same of Coakley. Even among Coakley's supporters only 73% think she's made the argument for herself, while 94% of Brown's supporters think he has.

The momentum is clearly with Brown but this will all come down to turnout.  Will update with additional findings after reviewing the crosstabs.  Some initial impressions though, Brown's lead among unafilliated voters has remained consistently high across other polls.  Coakley doesn't seem to have made any inroad with those voters.  Coakley's favorability drop is 6 points yet it doesn't appear she has laid a glove on Brown.   Interesting stuff, but the only poll that matters is the one on Tuesday.

Brown Leads by One Point in Latest PPP poll - It's a Toss Up

Marc Ambinder ponders the possibility, "Dems to Croak in Massachusetts?"  Ambinder reprints an email sent from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee he suggests would not have been sent unless there were real fears Coakley could choke:

You need to know this: Polls are tightening in Massachusetts, and America's future hangs on getting Martha Coakley elected to Ted Kennedy's seat on Jan. 19. Winning this special election means passing health care reform and the rest of President Obama's agenda.
We need your help today. The special election is only 10 days away. Funds are needed NOW to fight back against swiftboat attacks. Click here to make an immediate donation of $5 or more to the DSCC.

American Future Fund, the guys who brought you the Swift Boat attacks against decorated war veteran John Kerry, are up with a $400,000 buy, smearing Coakley.She's being outspent, and a new poll shows that the right wing money is doing the trick. Republican Scott Brown is within striking distance.

Keeping this seat blue is critical. Coakley is the 60th vote needed to pass health care and the rest of President Obama's agenda. As Massachusetts' first woman senator, she will help advance Kennedy's legacy - fighting for equal rights, a strong economy, and our families and communities.  Without her vote, health care won't happen.

Yet the plaintive cry that health care won't happen without Coakley's election seems to be what is driving the all important Independent vote towards Brown according to the latest PPP poll:

Brown has eye popping numbers with independents, sporting a 70/16 favorability rating with them and holding a 63-31 lead in the horse race with Coakley. Health care may be hurting Democratic fortunes with that group, as only 27% of independents express support for Obama's plan with 59% opposed.

 Also helping Brown is the relative disinterest among Democrats who don't appear all that motivated to turn out for this special election:

Republicans are considerably more enthusiastic about turning out to vote than Democrats are. 66% of GOP voters say they are 'very excited' about casting their votes, while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment- and that's among the Democrats who areplanning to vote in contrast to the many who are apparently not planning to do so at this point.

 Support for Brown has less to do with approval of Republicans in general.  In fact, only 21% of Massachusetts voters signal their approval of Congressional Republicans.  A large block of voters, however, those who disapprove of both parties appear to be poised to support the party out of power.  Toss in high personal approval of Brown and you have all the makings for a repeat of Virginia and to a lesser degree New Jersey because Christie's approval was not nearly as high as Brown's.

PPP as a left leaning pollster appears to have a clear message for Coakley believing she can still turn this around:

Here's the reality: the Republicans and GOP leaning independents are going to come out and vote for Scott Brown. There's no doubt about that. But there's also a much larger pool of potential Democratic voters in the state. If Coakley can get them out, she wins. But this race is well past the stage where Democrats can take it for granted that will happen. It will be fascinating to see what happens the final ten days and we'll do a second poll on the race next weekend.

 Coakley may have some difficulty following PPP's advice, however, based on some of the information found in the crosstabs of the poll:

Brown leads 63-31 with independents and is winning 17% of the Democratic vote while Coakley receives only 6% support from GOP voters. Both candidates are relatively popular, with 57% viewing Brown favorably to only 25% unfavorable and 50% with a positive opinion of Coakley to 42% negative.

Brown's favorability at +32 vs +8 for Coakley along with  his support among the Democratic vote outstrips Coakley's considerably making this race a toss up.  This will come down to turnout as do most special elections.  Still, the mere fact we are discussing the possibility of a Republican winning Ted Kennedy's seat is nothing short of miraculous.   The next ten days are shaping up to be really exciting.

For More:
Professor Jacobson spent the day at Brown's headquarters, be sure to read his report.
Lots more at Memeorandum too.

More Fear and Loathing in Massachusetts

Housekeeping note: My daughter had surgery yesterday so I have been behind in posting here. She's home now and resting so I have time to catch up a bit.

From PPP, a left leaning pollster mind you:

At this point a plurality of those planning to turn out oppose the health care bill. The massive enthusiasm gap we saw in Virginia is playing itself out in Massachusetts as well. Republican voters are fired up and they're going to turn out. Martha Coakley needs to have a coherent message up on the air over the last ten days that her election is critical to health care passing and Ted Kennedy's legacy- right now Democrats in the state are not feeling a sense of urgency.

-Scott Brown's favorables are up around 60%, a product of his having had the airwaves to himself for the last week. By comparison Bob McDonnell's were at 55% right before his election and Chris Christie's were only at 43%. Coakley's campaign or outside groups need to tie Brown's image to national Republicans and knock him down a notch over the final week of the campaign.

This has become a losable race for Democrats

Word of caution:  the post goes on to say it is also winnable if Coakley gets her act together.  Fivethirtyeight gives PPP a decent rating as a pollster but we have no polling info here just the headlines from the polling they have mostly completed but not yet released.  They appear to be sending a message to light a fire under Coakley but in doing so they are also lighting a fire under those who might not turn out for Brown for fear a Republican can never really win in Massachusetts.

 Coakley has played a dream hand very badly but is it enough to lose?   I believe she can lose and NRO has done something unusual; they're asking readers to contribute to  Scott Brown:

Yet it’s still possible Brown could pull off a stunning upset. Since Reid managed to get the health bill through the Senate, we’ve heard the plaint of so many conservatives, “Is this really happening? Is there any way we can still stop it?” Anyone who has asked those questions in recent weeks should go to Scott Brown’s website and contribute, eroding at least one of Coakley’s key advantages. We don’t ordinarily make fundraising pitches for candidates, but these are special circumstances. The way the health-care debate is projecting right now, the Democrats will get their bill and Republicans will exact their retribution in the fall. It’d be even better if retribution arrived early this year.

Early retribution would be a very good thing.  We have a good health care system in this country and letting Democrats tinker with it scares me senseless.  Scott Brown's election is about the best hope of stopping that garbage legislation from becoming law, I am praying for David win over Goliath here.

Thanks to American Power for linking to this post!  Memeorandum has more links on the Scott Brown race in Massachusetts.  Also big thanks to Reaganite Republican for linking as well.