Miss Bush Yet?

Evidently many do miss him as proved in a recent PPP poll.  The left-leaning pollster found Americans pretty evenly divided when asked whether they would prefer to have Bush back in office or if they prefer Obama.    This is startling considering that many Republicans and Independents had turned against Bush by the time he left office:

Bush had atrocious approval ratings for his final few years in office, particularly because he lost a lot of support from Republicans and conservative leaning independents. Those folks may not have liked him but they now say they would rather have him back than Obama. 87% of GOP voters now say they would prefer Bush, a number a good deal higher than Bush's approval rating within his party toward the tail end of his Presidency. Democrats predictably go for Obama by an 86/10 margin, and independents lean toward him as well by a 49/37 spread.

Perhaps that explains the results of a hypothetical match up of President Obama and Ron Paul polled by Rasmussen:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of likely voters finds Obama with 42% support and Paul with 41% of the vote. Eleven percent (11%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

Ask the Political Class, though, and it’s a blowout. While 58% of Mainstream voters favor Paul, 95% of the Political Class vote for Obama.

But Republican voters also have decidedly mixed feelings about Paul, who has been an outspoken critic of the party establishment.  Obama earns 79% support from Democrats, but Paul gets just 66% of GOP votes. Voters not affiliated with either major party give Paul a 47% to 28% edge over the president.

 While Paul is not my preferred candidate, there is no doubt I would prefer the libertarian-leanings of Paul to Obama's far left progressive agenda.  Hopefully we find the right mix between now and 2012.  Somehow I think we will.

As always the ever-important race is the one that looms before us in November.  The good news for November comes from Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics:

That said, I think those who suggest that the House is barely in play, or that we are a long way from a 1994-style scenario are missing the mark. A 1994-style scenario is probably the most likely outcome at this point. Moreover, it is well within the realm of possibility – not merely a far-fetched scenario – that Democratic losses could climb into the 80 or 90-seat range. The Democrats are sailing into a perfect storm of factors influencing a midterm election, and if the situation declines for them in the ensuing months, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Democratic losses eclipse 100 seats…

The President’s weakness in these states reveals another problem for his party. Since he is weak in Republican areas and swing areas, and yet doesn’t have horrible approval ratings overall, he must be very, very popular among his party’s base. Some polls have his approval ratings among African Americans at 95%. Even in Massachusetts, Martha Coakley managed to win the First, Seventh and Eighth Districts, which are home to the state’s liberals and minorities.

The problem for the Democrats is that these voters are packed into a relatively few states and Congressional districts nationwide, diluting their vote share. This is why the median Congressional district is an R+2 district. Thus, the President could have a relatively healthy overall approval rating, but still be fairly unpopular in swing states and districts. The increased enthusiasm that Obama generated among minorities, the young and the liberal is useful, but only if it is realized in conjunction with Democratic approval in a few other categories.

Trende is a great analyst so read the rest.  There is a caveat, however, Trende tends to agree with other analysts that the picture could change dramatically should we head into a "V"-shaped recovery which would likely aid in boosting Obama's approval numbers.  The bad news, if you can call a "V"- recovery bad news that is, Larry Kudlow sees just that on the horizon.  I would take my chances that Democrats would still get their hats handed to them in spite of a recovery but Kudlow seems to be cheerleading the news ever since he had dinner with Obama.  There is a long way to go on unemployment and it would take a monster job producing economy to turn unemployment around by November.  The best scenario, in my opinion, the economy comes roaring back once we retake the House and maybe even the Senate too.

Marist Poll: Obama "Disappointer in Chief"

Very catchy, isn't it?

47% of registered voters nationwide report President Obama has fallen below their expectations. 42% say he has met their expectations while just 7% think he has exceeded them. Slightly more members of the electorate currently think the president has let them down compared with Marist’s December survey. At that time, 42% thought Mr. Obama missed the mark while 44% said he met their expectations. 9% reported Obama surpassed their expectations.

The all-important Independents are not happy:

Perhaps, particularly concerning for Mr. Obama is the drop in support among Independents. For the first time since taking office, a majority of Independents -- 57% -- disapproves of how he is doing in the role. 29% approve, and 14% are unsure.

Not surprisingly, Democrats and Republicans are polarized. 81% of Democrats approve of the president’s job performance while a similar proportion of Republicans -- 80% -- disapproves.

"If attracting Independents and bipartisanship are the aim, then the president clearly has a lot of ground to cover in year two," says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist Institute for Public Opinion. 

 The only slack Independents give Obama is not surprising, they believe the economic situation was inherited. I guess we'll be hearing more from Barack the Blameaholic.  Obama may have difficulty undoing much of the damage his failure to provide transparency and bipartisanship in the health care debates with a half day bipartisan discussion on health care.  Perhaps if they had tried that from the outset, they'd have passed health care legislation by now.

 Ed Morrissey makes an interesting observation in his analysis of the poll:

Obama can’t rely on personal favorability for much longer, either.  Consistently across all pollsters, Obama generally has solid majorities of people that personally like him.  Not any longer; among all Marist respondents, that number is down to 50%, losing five points since December.  A majority of independents (52%) hold an unfavorable view of Obama personally, up nine points in two months.

 I have often thought that people were reluctant to answer the question about Obama's personal favorability with anything other than a positive.  Poll after poll showed a disconnect between Obama's personal approval and his policies.  This was bound to change especially as anger grows over Obama's singular devotion to health care while unemployment numbers continued to rise to historic levels.

Marist seems concerned about his chances for reelection and reveals something of a bias in the hypothetical matchup for 2012 they polled:

Looking at a three-way 2012 presidential contest between President Obama, former Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin, and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Obama receives 44% of the vote, Republican Palin garners 29%, and Independent Bloomberg nets 15%.

A Bloomberg candidacy helps Mr. Obama’s cause. Although Palin receives majority support -- 57% -- from the GOP, Bloomberg snatches 20% of the vote within the party. Among Democrats, Bloomberg only receives 4%. Democrats are firmly behind Obama with 84% tossing their support to him. Looking at Independents, 31% back Obama, and 27% support Palin. 24% report they would cast their ballot for Bloomberg.

The clear message to Democrats is divide and conquer.   Naturally, conservatives and the Republican party should be wary of third party candidates and rally behind the primary winner.

Via Memeorandum

Poll Shows 77% Support for Public Option

See even Soros looks surprised at those results. He shouldn't be however, since his organization MoveOn.org sponsored the study. Who knew the public option would actually gain support after all the arguing this summer? Let's take a look at the credibility of this sample, shall we? Question two asks: "In any health care proposal, how important do you feel it is to give people a choice of both a public plan administered by the federal government and a private plan for their health insurance--extremely important, quite important, not that important, or not at all important?" A whopping 58% of Republicans answered extremely important. Where did they find these Republicans? Did they pay ACORN workers to find them? Still this is the headline, major headline mind you, at Huffington Post. This news ought to keep everyone all "Wee-Wee'd UP"