Health Care May be Hazardous to Re-election

Politics Daily  has a fascinating round up of polling analysis broken down by state showing Obama in trouble in a few key states he won in 2008.  I am sure it will come as no surprise that health care has hurt him quite a bit.  Bruce Drake notes:

"In the states polled by Rasmussen where Obama is in negative territory, he often is deep in negative territory because those who "strongly" disapprove range from 40 percent to 50 percent. Sometimes, the "strongly" disapprove nearly matches or does match the percentage of those who approve. The same is true in those states where a majority disapprove of the health care reform plan he advocated."


One key state that stood out was Ohio which is particularly interesting because the state has been crucial to winning the last few elections.  The polling for health care is very bad there and it seems the hope for Democrats in the state may rest on Obama's popularity there:

PPP says 53 percent disapprove of the job Obama is doing while 40 percent approve, and 7 percent are undecided.

Independents disapprove by a 63 percent to 32 percent margin, with 6 percent undecided. Fifty-four percent oppose his health care plan while 39 percent support it, with 6 percent undecided. PPP's Dean Debnam, commenting on the Ohio Senate race, observed, ""None of the candidates in Ohio is really standing out right now. But if Barack Obama's numbers in the state remain this low it's not likely to elect a Democratic Senator this year. His popularity could be the deciding factor in this race."

Two numbers stand out, keeping in mind PPP is a left leaning pollster, 63% of Independents disapprove of Obama while only 39% over all support health care.  This doesn't bode well for Obama or Democratic hopefuls in this election.  I am not sure what could increase his popularity other than repealing health care but it appears he has his work cut out for him there.

 Because I am in Pennsylvania I naturally was interested in those results.  Obama won Pennsylvania readily in 2008 but there does appear to be some buyer's remorse setting in.  The latest Rasmussen poll tells the tale:

Rasmussen says 51 percent disapprove of Obama's performance (with 41 percent "strongly" disapproving) while 48 percent approve. Sixty-five percent oppose the health care reform plan he backed (with 57 percent in strong opposition) while 31 percent favored it. Sixty percent say he did a poor job of handling the issue, 9 percent rate it fair, and 30 percent grade it good or excellent.

 Pennsylvanians are really opposed to this health care legislation which seems to have put Obama underwater in a state he won.  The same is true in Florida and we all know how key Florida can be in determining the outcome of elections.  It looks to me Virginia and most of the states that turned blue for the first time in 2008 have recovered from their hope and change hangover.  Of course 2012 is a long way away and much can change in the interim.  Still, it looks as though if the election were held today Obama would join the ranks of the "one-termers," quite readily.

For those interested in polling, be sure to read through Politics Daily state-by-state breakdown.  One thing to note, however, Research 2000 polls are paid for by Daily KOS and seem to me the rosiest of rosy scenarios for Democrats.  Though there are a few there that can't hide the unpopularity of either Obama or his agenda, believe me they seem to be trying in those polls to hide what they can.  Keep that in mind when reading analysis of those polls.  The rest of the polling information is pretty interesting so be sure to take a look.

More Fear and Loathing in Massachusetts

Housekeeping note: My daughter had surgery yesterday so I have been behind in posting here. She's home now and resting so I have time to catch up a bit.

From PPP, a left leaning pollster mind you:

At this point a plurality of those planning to turn out oppose the health care bill. The massive enthusiasm gap we saw in Virginia is playing itself out in Massachusetts as well. Republican voters are fired up and they're going to turn out. Martha Coakley needs to have a coherent message up on the air over the last ten days that her election is critical to health care passing and Ted Kennedy's legacy- right now Democrats in the state are not feeling a sense of urgency.

-Scott Brown's favorables are up around 60%, a product of his having had the airwaves to himself for the last week. By comparison Bob McDonnell's were at 55% right before his election and Chris Christie's were only at 43%. Coakley's campaign or outside groups need to tie Brown's image to national Republicans and knock him down a notch over the final week of the campaign.

This has become a losable race for Democrats

Word of caution:  the post goes on to say it is also winnable if Coakley gets her act together.  Fivethirtyeight gives PPP a decent rating as a pollster but we have no polling info here just the headlines from the polling they have mostly completed but not yet released.  They appear to be sending a message to light a fire under Coakley but in doing so they are also lighting a fire under those who might not turn out for Brown for fear a Republican can never really win in Massachusetts.

 Coakley has played a dream hand very badly but is it enough to lose?   I believe she can lose and NRO has done something unusual; they're asking readers to contribute to  Scott Brown:

Yet it’s still possible Brown could pull off a stunning upset. Since Reid managed to get the health bill through the Senate, we’ve heard the plaint of so many conservatives, “Is this really happening? Is there any way we can still stop it?” Anyone who has asked those questions in recent weeks should go to Scott Brown’s website and contribute, eroding at least one of Coakley’s key advantages. We don’t ordinarily make fundraising pitches for candidates, but these are special circumstances. The way the health-care debate is projecting right now, the Democrats will get their bill and Republicans will exact their retribution in the fall. It’d be even better if retribution arrived early this year.

Early retribution would be a very good thing.  We have a good health care system in this country and letting Democrats tinker with it scares me senseless.  Scott Brown's election is about the best hope of stopping that garbage legislation from becoming law, I am praying for David win over Goliath here.

Thanks to American Power for linking to this post!  Memeorandum has more links on the Scott Brown race in Massachusetts.  Also big thanks to Reaganite Republican for linking as well.