Source: Charlie Crist to run as an independent

Via Dan Riehl
All signs today pointed to the possibility on Thursday, now Fox News 35 is a reporting a source inside the Crist campaign has said Crist will announce on Friday he will run as an independent:

Dr. Rick Foglesong is the President of the faculty at Rollins College, one of our political analysts who has time and time again predicted a run by the governor as an independent. And now, he says he has a source inside the Crist campaign staff.

Dr. Foglesong said, "A person I know in the Charlie Crist campaign has told me Charlie Crist would veto the merit pay bill, and he did. Further, he said he would announce tomorrow, that's Friday, that he would run as an independent."

Fox 35's Tracy Jacim asked, "Where is this supposed to happen?" Dr. Foglesong said, "South Florida." Jacim asks, "Miami?" Foglesong said, "Yes." Jacim asks, "How reliable is this source?" Foglesong replied, "I trust the source."

Fox 35 contacted the Crist campaign staff by e-mail, and they would neither confirm nor deny this claim, and expressed surprise we were asking.

But a new Quinnipiac poll of 1,250 registered republicans offers support to the theory. It shows the governor badly trailing former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio in the GOP primary with only 33 percent of the vote to Rubio's 56 percent.

Fox News was not able to find a campaign event for Crist in Miami today, nor did that seem to be the most convincing portion of Dr. Foglesong's statement.    Senator John Cornyn commented on the potential for a Crist independent run saying, "I would think that would be the end of his political career as a Republican, so I doubt that will happen. " Whether Crist will attempt a career-ending run as an independent remains to be seen.  Senator Cornyn and the NRSC own this fiasco, however.   If Crist runs as an independent, he won't be the only one facing the backlash of an angry mob.

Health Care May be Hazardous to Re-election

Politics Daily  has a fascinating round up of polling analysis broken down by state showing Obama in trouble in a few key states he won in 2008.  I am sure it will come as no surprise that health care has hurt him quite a bit.  Bruce Drake notes:

"In the states polled by Rasmussen where Obama is in negative territory, he often is deep in negative territory because those who "strongly" disapprove range from 40 percent to 50 percent. Sometimes, the "strongly" disapprove nearly matches or does match the percentage of those who approve. The same is true in those states where a majority disapprove of the health care reform plan he advocated."


One key state that stood out was Ohio which is particularly interesting because the state has been crucial to winning the last few elections.  The polling for health care is very bad there and it seems the hope for Democrats in the state may rest on Obama's popularity there:

PPP says 53 percent disapprove of the job Obama is doing while 40 percent approve, and 7 percent are undecided.

Independents disapprove by a 63 percent to 32 percent margin, with 6 percent undecided. Fifty-four percent oppose his health care plan while 39 percent support it, with 6 percent undecided. PPP's Dean Debnam, commenting on the Ohio Senate race, observed, ""None of the candidates in Ohio is really standing out right now. But if Barack Obama's numbers in the state remain this low it's not likely to elect a Democratic Senator this year. His popularity could be the deciding factor in this race."

Two numbers stand out, keeping in mind PPP is a left leaning pollster, 63% of Independents disapprove of Obama while only 39% over all support health care.  This doesn't bode well for Obama or Democratic hopefuls in this election.  I am not sure what could increase his popularity other than repealing health care but it appears he has his work cut out for him there.

 Because I am in Pennsylvania I naturally was interested in those results.  Obama won Pennsylvania readily in 2008 but there does appear to be some buyer's remorse setting in.  The latest Rasmussen poll tells the tale:

Rasmussen says 51 percent disapprove of Obama's performance (with 41 percent "strongly" disapproving) while 48 percent approve. Sixty-five percent oppose the health care reform plan he backed (with 57 percent in strong opposition) while 31 percent favored it. Sixty percent say he did a poor job of handling the issue, 9 percent rate it fair, and 30 percent grade it good or excellent.

 Pennsylvanians are really opposed to this health care legislation which seems to have put Obama underwater in a state he won.  The same is true in Florida and we all know how key Florida can be in determining the outcome of elections.  It looks to me Virginia and most of the states that turned blue for the first time in 2008 have recovered from their hope and change hangover.  Of course 2012 is a long way away and much can change in the interim.  Still, it looks as though if the election were held today Obama would join the ranks of the "one-termers," quite readily.

For those interested in polling, be sure to read through Politics Daily state-by-state breakdown.  One thing to note, however, Research 2000 polls are paid for by Daily KOS and seem to me the rosiest of rosy scenarios for Democrats.  Though there are a few there that can't hide the unpopularity of either Obama or his agenda, believe me they seem to be trying in those polls to hide what they can.  Keep that in mind when reading analysis of those polls.  The rest of the polling information is pretty interesting so be sure to take a look.

Karl Rove Predicts there Could be A Political Earthquake this Year

Karl Rove discussed with Sean Hannity potential strategies Obama may choose. The obvious sensible choice would be to move to the center and give up on health care but Rove sees Obama opting for the continued pressure for health care while feigning the part of "Mr. Populist." Obama's performance in Ohio earlier is reviewed as well.

Rove often gives the most measured assessments of the prospects for the GOP in the midterms. After Massachusetts, however, Rove declares, "This could be an earthquake this fall." Hannity refers to analysis from Newt Gingrich who suggests if the trend continues as we've seen there could be 150 Democratic seats at risk. Of course Rove goes nowhere near that prediction but clearly he sees a seismic shift in the future.





Rove posted a photo on twitter the other night laying out the most favorable scenario for Democrats in the coming 2010 Senate races:

Left-leaning analyst Nate Silver does a full report on the state of Senate races and finds Democrats with few prospects.  Stock up on the popcorn folks, it's going to be an interesting year.

Charlie Crist Was For Obama Before He Was Against Him

In a half hour segment in February on Meet the Presss, Florida Governor Charlie Crist gave Barack Obama quite an endorsement when asked about leadership in the Republican party:

"I think there is a national leader, his name is President Obama."

Seven months later Crist seems to see things quite differently.  In an interview on CNN, Crist stood by a recent prediction Obama was headed for massive defeat as did Carter in 1980.   Have the scales fallen from Crist's eyes or is he feeling the Florida primary heat?  CNN's John Roberts hits Crist with a few tough questions in the following clip:




Looks like Crist is in some trouble. Even The Huffington Post predicts an upset.