Some of the latest efforts to induce sudden euphoria for Democratic prospects are far more transparent than anything that has passed through the Congress or White House since Democrats have had control. Take this latest ray of hope Charlie Cook offers from Gallup's recent generic ballot polling:
We're currently experiencing one of those periods of uncertainty. One interpretation of recent results is that the momentum in this critical midterm election has shifted and the Republican wave has subsided. Another interpretation is that it's too soon to tell whether much has changed at all...Oops, sorry Charlie it looks like Republicans are back on top again:
Registered voters favor Republicans by 48% and Democrats by 43% in Gallup's generic congressional ballot for the week of July 26 through Aug. 1. This follows two weeks when the numbers were nearly reversed.Never fear, hope springs eternal as PPP offers this sunny scenario:
While the five-percentage-point edge for Republicans is not statistically significant, it represents a return to the prevailing 2010 pattern, seen since mid-March, whereby Republicans were tied or held a slight advantage over Democrats in most Gallup Daily tracking weekly averages. If sustained through Election Day, this competitive positioning for the Republicans among registered voters would point to major seat gains for that party in November given the usual Republican advantage in turnout.
If you look at the trends in the actual races though things are getting sunnier for the Democrats. In June and July PPP polled eight Senate match ups that we had a previous poll to compare to- in all eight the Democratic candidate improved his/her position, by an average of 4.25 points.PPP explains the sudden shift back to the "It's always sunny scenario," with the usual litany of Democratic talking points. You have heard them all before, Republicans have crazy candidates, yada, yada, yada:
And then of course there are the races with flawed Republican candidates: Charlie Melancon and Alexi Giannoulias have seen improvement as David Vitter and Mark Kirk have had to deal with character issues and Jack Conway has seen his standing rise as Kentuckians have had to consider whether Rand Paul is an extremist.I would be careful pointing to Alexi Giannoulias when discussing flawed candidates if I were on the left. Of course if I were on the left I might be looking to distance myself from Tony Rezko's ATM machine. What say you Barack? As for David Vitter, Democrats have a long way to go before they take a victory lap in that race. Of course in the long run trends do matter in polls but what PPP offers here is as substantive as Charlie Cook's analysis of the Gallup poll.
Things aren't always sunny for Democrats, folks and there is little on the horizon to suggest their prospects will get brighter. This will not stop certain pointy-hatted people from trying to convince her base Democrats have this completely under control. Fortunately, it doesn't seem many people are buying it:
Thanks to Scared Monkeys for linking this post.