A "Venti" election for the GOP

Here are two more of the professional crystal-ball gazers chiming in with their assessments of the state of the midterm elections. Stuart Rothenberg and Charlie Cook weighed in with their opinions this morning in an appearance on Morning Joe.

 This is a great clip for a few reasons. First, it opens with George W. Bush's fantastic opening pitch in last night's World Series game and his phenomenal reception from the crowd. Second, Cook describes the wave about to hit the House Dems in Starbucks terms; this is a "venti" as big as they get.

Finally, there is an interesting discussion on when things really started to turn sour for Dems. Rothenberg places the pivotal moment for the Dems on the health care town hall meetings in August 2009. Cook believes it came around the time of the cap and trade vote. Coincidentally, the cap and trade vote wasn't the only major event at that time. I have said several times (see here and here) the first appreciable decline in support for Obama and Congress came at the time Al Franken was sworn in as Senator, giving Democrats carte blanche to pass their agenda at will.  It could well be the case that seating Franken while the House passed cap and trade was enough to send a shiver down the spines of American voters who had to see there were no checks and balances in place to stop the train wreck we know as the 111th Congress.  Ironically, the far left has often lamented they didn't use their super majority to pass single-payer health care or the rest of their destructive agenda.  Thank heaven for small favors I guess, though I can't imagine what the wave would like if they had.  PJ O'Rourke was dead-on in his assessment of this election:

This is not an election on November 2. This is a restraining order. Power has been trapped, abused and exploited by Democrats. Go to the ballot box and put an end to this abusive relationship. And let’s not hear any nonsense about letting the Democrats off if they promise to get counseling. 

There's no hope in counseling for the clueless Andrea Mitchell.  Mitchell's sole contribution to the discussion is   her suggestion the problem came for Democrats when they handed health care to Max Baucus who then spent 6 weeks of Summer 2009 trying to write a bipartisan bill.  NO ANDREA, it was the whole agenda, the lousy health care bill, cap and trade and the self-aggrandizing Democrats who foolishly believed they had already saved the economy so there was no need to worry about an economy that was bleeding jobs.  Obviously Mitchell needs something larger than a Venti to wake her up from her Beltway beauty sleep:


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Dead Congressmen Walking: Cook Moves 12 House Races to Lean Republican

Barring a late call from the Governor, Cook Political considers the following Democratic incumbents Dead Congressmen Walking: Ann Kirkpatrick, Betsy Markey, Alan Grayson, Suzanne Kosmas, Debbie Halvorson, Steve Driehaus, Mary Jo Kilroy, Kathy Dahlkemper, Chet Edwards, Glen Nye, Tom Perriello, and Steve Kagen.  The lone Republican in the group is Louisiana's Joseph Cao who represents a D+25 district:

Longtime readers will observe that while we rarely rate unindicted incumbents worse than a Toss Up to win reelection, today we are moving 13 incumbents, 12 Democrats and one Republican, into the opposite party’s column to reflect their underdog status. It’s not that these endangered members’ prospects have suddenly taken a turn for the worse, or even deteriorated gradually over the last several months. Most of these members have trailed all year, and it’s simply exceedingly rare to see a candidate in their position in October come back to win reelection, especially now that early voting will be underway in many states very soon.

We have historically treated the Toss Up column for incumbents as the political equivalent of the intensive care unit, and haven’t commonly used gradations of danger worse than Toss Up. But we have seen some incumbents that have fallen far enough behind and remain behind for so long that we could no longer justify referring to their races as Toss Ups. Overall, 51 House Democrats have trailed their GOP challengers in at least one public or private poll taken this year, a higher number than we have ever seen before. At this point in 2006, fewer than 20 House Republicans trailed their Democratic opponents.

Please give me a moment to compose myself over the imminent demise of Alan Grayson.  I am all verklempt so please talk among yourselves.  I will leave you with the list of the 25 races moved in the latest round of rating changes, 24 of which favor Republicans:

• NEW YORK | District 25: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat 
• WISCONSIN | District 8: Toss Up to Lean Republican 
• VIRGINIA | District 5: Toss Up to Lean Republican 
• TEXAS | District 17: Toss Up to Lean Republican
• VIRGINIA | District 2: Toss Up to Lean Republican 
• PENNSYLVANIA | District 3: Toss Up to Lean Republican 
• OREGON | District 5: Lean Democrat to Toss Up 
• OHIO | District 15: Toss Up to Lean Republican 
• OHIO | District 13: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat 
• OHIO | District 1: Toss Up to Lean Republican 
• NORTH CAROLINA | District 2: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat
• NEW YORK | District 23: Lean Democrat to Toss Up 
• NEW JERSEY | District 3: Lean Democrat to Toss Up 
• MISSISSIPPI | District 4: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat 
• MINNESOTA | District 1: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat 
• LOUISIANA | District 2: Toss Up to Lean Democrat 
• KENTUCKY | District 6: Lean Democrat to Toss Up 
• ILLINOIS | District 11: Toss Up to Lean Republican 
• GEORGIA | District 2: Lean Democrat to Toss Up 
• FLORIDA | District 24: Toss Up to Lean Republican 
• FLORIDA | District 8: Toss Up to Lean Republican 
• CONNECTICUT | District 5: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat 
• COLORADO | District 4: Toss Up to Lean Republican 
• ARIZONA | District 8: Lean Democrat to Toss Up 
• ARIZONA | District 1: Toss Up to Lean Republican

Cook Report puts control of the House in the hands of the GOP

It's like doing the Time Warp again sans the jump to the left adding ten steps to the right, Cook Report puts control of the House in the hands of the GOP:

The Cook Political Report's current outlook is for a Republican net gain of at least 40 seats. A turnover of 39 seats would tip majority status into Republican hands. At this point, only 205 House seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Democratic, while 181 seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Republican, and 45 seats are in the Toss Up column.

There is even a graphic:

Ooops, wrong one:

Here are the 10 races Cook moved to the right today:

• PENNSYLVANIA | District 10: Lean Democrat to Toss Up 
• OHIO | District 18: Lean Democrat to Toss Up 
• NEW YORK | District 19: Lean Democrat to Toss Up 
• NEW YORK | District 4: Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat 
• GEORGIA | District 2: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat 
• CONNECTICUT | District 4: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat 
• COLORADO | District 7: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat
• CALIFORNIA | District 44: Likely Republican to Solid Republican 
• CALIFORNIA | District 20: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat 
• CALIFORNIA | District 11: Lean Democrat to Toss Up
• UTAH | Governor: Likely Republican to Solid Republican 

Much of the explanation for moving these races is behind the pay firewall at Cook Report but the preview reveals moves were made to reflect the challenging political environment:

House Editor David Wasserman explains why ratings are changing in ten incumbent districts as more races come into view. Sophomore Democratic Reps. Jerry McNerney (CA-11) and John Hall (NY-19), who represent closely divided suburban bellwether districts, are facing their toughest tests yet after escaping 2008 without top-tier Republican opposition. And fellow sophomore Democratic Reps. Zack Space (OH-18) and Chris Carney (PA-10), who both have to defend tough votes on very Republican turf, have never had to run in this kind of political environment before and can no longer be considered clear favorites over subpar opponents.

That Wasserman describes the Republican opponents as subpar suggests some bias in favor of the Democrats. Still the moves made by Cook will likely increase the fury Cook incurred when he criticized Obama's OFA earlier in a Time Magazine article What Ever Happened to Obama's Army?

What happened to Barack Obama's once vaunted political machine? The outfit that put upwards of 8 million volunteers on the street in 2008 — known as Organizing for America — is a ghost of its former self. Its staff has shrunk from 6,000 to 300, and its donors are depressed: Receipts are a fraction of what they were in 2008. Virtually no one in politics believes it will turn many contests this fall. "There's no chance that OFA is going to have the slightest impact on the midterms," says Charlie Cook, who tracks congressional races.

Democrats, as we all know, don't take criticism well.  Here is an excerpt of the scorched-earth response:

As to Mr. Cook, since OFA is running or helping to run coordinated campaigns in scores of states — his comment seems to suggest that GOTV in campaigns doesn't matter and the only thing that does is television ads — which would mean he slept thru the 2008 campaign. Besides the fact — when's the last time Charlie Cook attended a phone bank or walked a canvass or became expert on field organizing. Maybe given the whiplash some of his prognostications given people this year he's looking to opine on other things but I would venture to guess he doesn't have a clue as to what our organizing efforts are or what effect they stand to have on the outcome of close races.

 Charlie Cook has been predicting this reversal of Democratic fortunes as far back as August 2009.  If anyone has whiplash it would have to be the Democrats who ignored the screaming of their constituents while the Dems ran toward that bright and shiny light we know as health care.  The polling information that informs Cooks assessment of the midterms suggests Americans have had their fill of community organizers and are unlikely to be persuaded by Obama's campaign arm Organizing for America.  Whether Organizing for America is focused on 2012 seems fairly obvious, Obama is all about Obama.  The Democrats who sacrificed their career to vote for Obama's agenda should have seen that coming.  That they didn't suggests they are the candidates who might best be described as "subpar."

Democratic Mass Hypnosis Continues - It's always sunny in Demsylvania edition

Are you feeling sleepy yet?  Suddenly feeling the urge to dig in your pockets and donate to the Democratic war chest?  As Democrats head home to their districts the orchestrated effort to change the national narrative from doom and gloom for Democrats to it's always sunny in Demsylvania is in full swing.  All is well people, all is well.

Some of the latest efforts to induce sudden euphoria for Democratic prospects are far more transparent than anything that has passed through the Congress or White House since Democrats have had control.  Take this latest ray of hope Charlie Cook offers from Gallup's recent generic ballot polling:

We're currently experiencing one of those periods of uncertainty. One interpretation of recent results is that the momentum in this critical midterm election has shifted and the Republican wave has subsided. Another interpretation is that it's too soon to tell whether much has changed at all...

Oops, sorry Charlie it looks like Republicans are back on top again:

Registered voters favor Republicans by 48% and Democrats by 43% in Gallup's generic congressional ballot for the week of July 26 through Aug. 1. This follows two weeks when the numbers were nearly reversed.

While the five-percentage-point edge for Republicans is not statistically significant, it represents a return to the prevailing 2010 pattern, seen since mid-March, whereby Republicans were tied or held a slight advantage over Democrats in most Gallup Daily tracking weekly averages. If sustained through Election Day, this competitive positioning for the Republicans among registered voters would point to major seat gains for that party in November given the usual Republican advantage in turnout.

Never fear, hope springs eternal as PPP offers this sunny scenario:

If you look at the trends in the actual races though things are getting sunnier for the Democrats. In June and July PPP polled eight Senate match ups that we had a previous poll to compare to- in all eight the Democratic candidate improved his/her position, by an average of 4.25 points.

PPP explains the sudden shift back to the "It's always sunny scenario," with the usual litany of Democratic talking points.  You have heard them all before, Republicans have crazy candidates, yada, yada, yada:

 And then of course there are the races with flawed Republican candidates: Charlie Melancon and Alexi Giannoulias have seen improvement as David Vitter and Mark Kirk have had to deal with character issues and Jack Conway has seen his standing rise as Kentuckians have had to consider whether Rand Paul is an extremist.

 I would be careful pointing to Alexi Giannoulias when discussing flawed candidates if I were on the left.  Of course if I were on the left I might be looking to distance myself from Tony Rezko's ATM machine.  What say you Barack? As for David Vitter, Democrats have a long way to go before they take a victory lap in that race.  Of course in the long run trends do matter in polls but what PPP offers here is as substantive as Charlie Cook's analysis of the Gallup poll.

Things aren't always sunny for Democrats, folks and there is little on the horizon to suggest their prospects will get brighter.  This will not stop certain pointy-hatted people from trying to convince her base Democrats have this completely under control.  Fortunately, it doesn't seem many people are buying it:







Thanks to Scared Monkeys for linking this post.

Waterloo

The White House obsession with health care borders on the pathological at this point. A month after Scott Brown won his earthquake victory in Massachusetts, the Obama administration is reportedly writing its' own bill which is then to be passed through reconciliation. Are we to believe they think the American people will suddenly adore this bill if it is passed by what is commonly referred to as "the nuclear option?" They can not let it go. It's nearly impossible to believe they can be so staggeringly ignorant they would pass this bill by the most divisive means possible. Still they persist.

Political analyst Charlie Cook likened this administration's obsession with health care to Bush's decision to go to war in Iraq. Whether you agree or disagree with the analogy, it is stunning to hear a decidely left-leaning but fair analyst discuss the magnitude of the health care failure and its implications for this White House and the Democratic Congress. Cook makes some grim statements on the fate of Democrats in the following clip. Full transcript available at National Journal



H/T:Hot Air