Dead Congressmen Walking: Cook Moves 12 House Races to Lean Republican

Barring a late call from the Governor, Cook Political considers the following Democratic incumbents Dead Congressmen Walking: Ann Kirkpatrick, Betsy Markey, Alan Grayson, Suzanne Kosmas, Debbie Halvorson, Steve Driehaus, Mary Jo Kilroy, Kathy Dahlkemper, Chet Edwards, Glen Nye, Tom Perriello, and Steve Kagen.  The lone Republican in the group is Louisiana's Joseph Cao who represents a D+25 district:

Longtime readers will observe that while we rarely rate unindicted incumbents worse than a Toss Up to win reelection, today we are moving 13 incumbents, 12 Democrats and one Republican, into the opposite party’s column to reflect their underdog status. It’s not that these endangered members’ prospects have suddenly taken a turn for the worse, or even deteriorated gradually over the last several months. Most of these members have trailed all year, and it’s simply exceedingly rare to see a candidate in their position in October come back to win reelection, especially now that early voting will be underway in many states very soon.

We have historically treated the Toss Up column for incumbents as the political equivalent of the intensive care unit, and haven’t commonly used gradations of danger worse than Toss Up. But we have seen some incumbents that have fallen far enough behind and remain behind for so long that we could no longer justify referring to their races as Toss Ups. Overall, 51 House Democrats have trailed their GOP challengers in at least one public or private poll taken this year, a higher number than we have ever seen before. At this point in 2006, fewer than 20 House Republicans trailed their Democratic opponents.

Please give me a moment to compose myself over the imminent demise of Alan Grayson.  I am all verklempt so please talk among yourselves.  I will leave you with the list of the 25 races moved in the latest round of rating changes, 24 of which favor Republicans:

• NEW YORK | District 25: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat 
• WISCONSIN | District 8: Toss Up to Lean Republican 
• VIRGINIA | District 5: Toss Up to Lean Republican 
• TEXAS | District 17: Toss Up to Lean Republican
• VIRGINIA | District 2: Toss Up to Lean Republican 
• PENNSYLVANIA | District 3: Toss Up to Lean Republican 
• OREGON | District 5: Lean Democrat to Toss Up 
• OHIO | District 15: Toss Up to Lean Republican 
• OHIO | District 13: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat 
• OHIO | District 1: Toss Up to Lean Republican 
• NORTH CAROLINA | District 2: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat
• NEW YORK | District 23: Lean Democrat to Toss Up 
• NEW JERSEY | District 3: Lean Democrat to Toss Up 
• MISSISSIPPI | District 4: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat 
• MINNESOTA | District 1: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat 
• LOUISIANA | District 2: Toss Up to Lean Democrat 
• KENTUCKY | District 6: Lean Democrat to Toss Up 
• ILLINOIS | District 11: Toss Up to Lean Republican 
• GEORGIA | District 2: Lean Democrat to Toss Up 
• FLORIDA | District 24: Toss Up to Lean Republican 
• FLORIDA | District 8: Toss Up to Lean Republican 
• CONNECTICUT | District 5: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat 
• COLORADO | District 4: Toss Up to Lean Republican 
• ARIZONA | District 8: Lean Democrat to Toss Up 
• ARIZONA | District 1: Toss Up to Lean Republican