political prognosticators continually readjust their predictions for the upcoming midterm elections one thing becomes perfectly clear; no one really knows the size of the wave that is coming. Nate Silver writes, "The 95 percent confidence interval on our model runs between a Republican gain of 17 seats and 78," in an article where he dispels the latest Democrat delusion that they are miraculously in the midst of a comeback. They're not, which is why Silver ups his prediction Republicans look poised to gain 50 seats:
Our model now estimates that the Republicans have a 72 percent chance of taking over the House, up from 67 percent last week. Moreover, they have nearly even odds of a achieving a net gain of 50 seats; their average gain in a typical simulation run was between 47 and 48 seats. However, the playing field remains very broad and considerably larger are possible, as are considerably smaller ones.The playing field is broad indeed. Silver is tracking 80 House seats deemed "in-play" while Cook Political is tracking 127 and Real Clear Politics tracks 137. Still there is evidence that districts no one is tracking are in-play as well:
Add Rep. Raul Grijalva to the growing list of Democratic worries this election season.At this point it is safe to say there is no safe Democratic seat this election. This is not to say I believe we will win every election but Democrats, despite their noted campaign warchests, are finding they must stretch those dollars to defend an increasingly expanded battlefield. They are putting out fires they never imagined. There will be some surprises November 2nd, that's really the only safe bet you can make this election.
Party operatives say there's increasing concern that the Arizona Democrat's reelection bid could turn into a "sleeper" race for Republicans after Grijalva — responding to enactment of a tough new immigration law — called for an economic boycott of his own state amid a housing crisis and record unemployment.
Four Democratic sources from different parts of the country said that there is new attention to a race that was long considered in the bag.
And a recent poll, obtained by POLITICO, found that Grijalva and Republican challenger Ruth McClung, a real-life rocket scientist, were in a dead heat, even though Washington prognosticators have declared the deep-blue seat safely Democratic.
Despite the overwhelming evidence that Democrats are facing an unimaginable wave, one person remains resolute she will still be holding her gavel when the water finally recedes:
Ms. Pelosi shook her head. “Let’s talk about ‘Make It in America,’ ” she said, the party’s theme of the week.Good luck with that "Make it in America" strategy. Too bad she didn't focus on that instead of that lunatic health care law. No word on when she is getting around to drain that swamp either.
Or let’s not. A 10-minute news conference was dominated by questions like, “Are you still as rosy in your assessment that you’re going to hold on to the House and that you’re still going to be speaker?”
“I feel that we will be in the majority and that I will be speaker of the House,” she replied. “But it’s not about me, it’s about the middle class.”
Next question: “Do you even think about not keeping the House?”
Just when you thought hopes for retaking the Senate were on the wane, the oceans start to recede, the planet heals and things get interesting in Washington, the State that is:
With Democratic candidates falling behind in Nevada and West Virginia, all eyes are turning to Washington State, where control for the Senate could well be decided on November 2. Patty Murray is presently clinging to a 0.5 percent lead in the RCP Average - but even that understates the precariousness of her situation.In the words of the immortal Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles:
Shortly after Labor Day, Murray went up on the air, and went negative on her opponent, Dino Rossi. She jumped out to a substantial lead. But that lead was largely a result of driving Rossi's numbers downward.
Rossi is now counterpunching, and the race has closed. Every poll since mid-May has been within the error margin, and three straight samples - two from Rasmussen and one from the Republican firm of Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates - have now showed her trailing Rossi.
Reaganite Republican has a great roundup of Sunday Funnies
UPDATE: The Other McCain has more on the Grijalva race and this important message about the improbable success of the woman opposing him. Did I mention she is literally a rocket scientist, it shows:
To have these kind of results, when McClung reported a mere $16,000 cash on hand in early August — incredible!
Go give Ruth McClung $20 — do it now — but then come back while I tell you what this one poll, in one deep-blue district, means for the larger picture Nov. 2.
Legal Insurrection has another surprising election in-play in Ithaca - yes Ithaca!