Add Raul Grijalva, Solomon Ortiz, Jim Oberstar, BARNEY FRANK, and Ben Ray Lujan. Oh and did I mention Barney Frank, oh happy day. The Other McCain covered the Frank/Bielat debate while Da Tech Guy tells us Cook will soon need a new category for Massachusetts:
Barring a late call from the Governor, Cook Political considers the following Democratic incumbents Dead Congressmen Walking: Ann Kirkpatrick, Betsy Markey, Alan Grayson, Suzanne Kosmas, Debbie Halvorson, Steve Driehaus, Mary Jo Kilroy, Kathy Dahlkemper, Chet Edwards, Glen Nye, Tom Perriello, and Steve Kagen. The lone Republican in the group is Louisiana's Joseph Cao who represents a D+25 district:
Longtime readers will observe that while we rarely rate unindicted incumbents worse than a Toss Up to win reelection, today we are moving 13 incumbents, 12 Democrats and one Republican, into the opposite party’s column to reflect their underdog status. It’s not that these endangered members’ prospects have suddenly taken a turn for the worse, or even deteriorated gradually over the last several months. Most of these members have trailed all year, and it’s simply exceedingly rare to see a candidate in their position in October come back to win reelection, especially now that early voting will be underway in many states very soon. We have historically treated the Toss Up column for incumbents as the political equivalent of the intensive care unit, and haven’t commonly used gradations of danger worse than Toss Up. But we have seen some incumbents that have fallen far enough behind and remain behind for so long that we could no longer justify referring to their races as Toss Ups. Overall, 51 House Democrats have trailed their GOP challengers in at least one public or private poll taken this year, a higher number than we have ever seen before. At this point in 2006, fewer than 20 House Republicans trailed their Democratic opponents.
Please give me a moment to compose myself over the imminent demise of Alan Grayson. I am all verklempt so please talk among yourselves. I will leave you with the list of the 25 races moved in the latest round of rating changes, 24 of which favor Republicans:
NEW YORK | District 25: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat
WISCONSIN | District 8: Toss Up to Lean Republican
VIRGINIA | District 5: Toss Up to Lean Republican
TEXAS | District 17: Toss Up to Lean Republican
VIRGINIA | District 2: Toss Up to Lean Republican
PENNSYLVANIA | District 3: Toss Up to Lean Republican
OREGON | District 5: Lean Democrat to Toss Up
OHIO | District 15: Toss Up to Lean Republican
OHIO | District 13: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
OHIO | District 1: Toss Up to Lean Republican
NORTH CAROLINA | District 2: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat
NEW YORK | District 23: Lean Democrat to Toss Up
NEW JERSEY | District 3: Lean Democrat to Toss Up
MISSISSIPPI | District 4: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat
MINNESOTA | District 1: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat
LOUISIANA | District 2: Toss Up to Lean Democrat
KENTUCKY | District 6: Lean Democrat to Toss Up
ILLINOIS | District 11: Toss Up to Lean Republican
GEORGIA | District 2: Lean Democrat to Toss Up
FLORIDA | District 24: Toss Up to Lean Republican
FLORIDA | District 8: Toss Up to Lean Republican
CONNECTICUT | District 5: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat
It's like doing the Time Warp again sans the jump to the left adding ten steps to the right, Cook Report puts control of the House in the hands of the GOP:
The Cook Political Report's current outlook is for a Republican net gain of at least 40 seats. A turnover of 39 seats would tip majority status into Republican hands. At this point, only 205 House seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Democratic, while 181 seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Republican, and 45 seats are in the Toss Up column.
There is even a graphic:
Ooops, wrong one:
Here are the 10 races Cook moved to the right today:
PENNSYLVANIA | District 10: Lean Democrat to Toss Up
OHIO | District 18: Lean Democrat to Toss Up
NEW YORK | District 19: Lean Democrat to Toss Up
NEW YORK | District 4: Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat
GEORGIA | District 2: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat
CONNECTICUT | District 4: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat
COLORADO | District 7: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat
CALIFORNIA | District 44: Likely Republican to Solid Republican
CALIFORNIA | District 20: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat
CALIFORNIA | District 11: Lean Democrat to Toss Up
UTAH | Governor: Likely Republican to Solid Republican
Much of the explanation for moving these races is behind the pay firewall at Cook Report but the preview reveals moves were made to reflect the challenging political environment:
House Editor David Wasserman explains why ratings are changing in ten incumbent districts as more races come into view. Sophomore Democratic Reps. Jerry McNerney (CA-11) and John Hall (NY-19), who represent closely divided suburban bellwether districts, are facing their toughest tests yet after escaping 2008 without top-tier Republican opposition. And fellow sophomore Democratic Reps. Zack Space (OH-18) and Chris Carney (PA-10), who both have to defend tough votes on very Republican turf, have never had to run in this kind of political environment before and can no longer be considered clear favorites over subpar opponents.
That Wasserman describes the Republican opponents as subpar suggests some bias in favor of the Democrats. Still the moves made by Cook will likely increase the fury Cook incurred when he criticized Obama's OFA earlier in a Time Magazine article What Ever Happened to Obama's Army?
What happened to Barack Obama's once vaunted political machine? The outfit that put upwards of 8 million volunteers on the street in 2008 — known as Organizing for America — is a ghost of its former self. Its staff has shrunk from 6,000 to 300, and its donors are depressed: Receipts are a fraction of what they were in 2008. Virtually no one in politics believes it will turn many contests this fall. "There's no chance that OFA is going to have the slightest impact on the midterms," says Charlie Cook, who tracks congressional races.
Democrats, as we all know, don't take criticism well. Here is an excerpt of the scorched-earth response:
As to Mr. Cook, since OFA is running or helping to run coordinated campaigns in scores of states — his comment seems to suggest that GOTV in campaigns doesn't matter and the only thing that does is television ads — which would mean he slept thru the 2008 campaign. Besides the fact — when's the last time Charlie Cook attended a phone bank or walked a canvass or became expert on field organizing. Maybe given the whiplash some of his prognostications given people this year he's looking to opine on other things but I would venture to guess he doesn't have a clue as to what our organizing efforts are or what effect they stand to have on the outcome of close races.
Charlie Cook has been predicting this reversal of Democratic fortunes as far back as August 2009. If anyone has whiplash it would have to be the Democrats who ignored the screaming of their constituents while the Dems ran toward that bright and shiny light we know as health care. The polling information that informs Cooks assessment of the midterms suggests Americans have had their fill of community organizers and are unlikely to be persuaded by Obama's campaign arm Organizing for America. Whether Organizing for America is focused on 2012 seems fairly obvious, Obama is all about Obama. The Democrats who sacrificed their career to vote for Obama's agenda should have seen that coming. That they didn't suggests they are the candidates who might best be described as "subpar."
My apologies for light blogging. No sooner did my kids head back to school before every computer in the house had some meltdown or another. It's always something isn't it? They're all back up and running except for one which is low priority anyway.
Here is a fun post though brought to you courtesy of Chuck Norris and the NRA reminding us we need to be registered in order to take the country back. Who's going to argue with Chuck?
Just in case Chuck didn't make the case, Cook Political Report just took ten more races and moved them a step to the right:
From House Editor David Wasserman: As the “macro” data for House Democrats continues to look very bleak, we are beginning to see the cracks in Democrats’ House picture expand at the “micro” level. As we gather more individual race-level polling data, we see the once-sunny fortunes of plenty of Democratic incumbents catching up with the dark reality of the overall environment.
This is an environment in which any Democratic laxity or misstep can prove fatal and even underfunded or flawed Republicans can be highly competitive. Some Democrats who took early precautions and have taken aggressive action, such as long-term Reps. Ike Skelton (MO-04) and Rick Boucher (VA-09), are polling well right now in very red districts. For others who haven’t had as much time to build strong relationships with their districts, however, the environmental advantages of 2006 and 2008 have vanished.
Based on the data we are seeing, five more Democrats are joining the Lean Democratic column and five more are joining the Toss Up column.
WYOMING | Governor: Likely Republican to Solid Republican (9/02/10)
TENNESSEE | Governor: Lean Republican to Likely Republican (9/02/10)
PENNSYLVANIA | Governor: Toss Up to Lean Republican (9/02/10)
OREGON | Governor: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (9/02/10)
WEST VIRGINIA | Senate: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (9/02/10)
OHIO | Senate: Toss Up to Lean Republican (9/02/10)
ARKANSAS | Senate: Toss Up to Lean Republican (9/02/10)
WISCONSIN | District 8: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (9/02/10)
WASHINGTON | District 2: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (9/02/10)
TEXAS | District 23: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (9/02/10)
NORTH CAROLINA | District 11: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (9/02/10)
MICHIGAN | District 9: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (9/02/10)
ILLINOIS | District 17: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (9/02/10)
FLORIDA | District 22: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (9/02/10)
COLORADO | District 3: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (9/02/10)
ARIZONA | District 5: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (9/02/10)
ARIZONA | District 1: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (9/02/10)
And with 60 days to go Larry Sabato decides things are looking bleak for the Dems:
Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. This is a “net” number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama’s Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot (discussed later in this essay). If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today.
In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react). GOP leaders themselves did not believe such a result was truly possible just a few months ago. If the Republican wave on November 2 is as large as some polls are suggesting it may be, then the surprise on election night could be a full GOP takeover. Since World War II, the House of Representatives has flipped parties on six occasions (1946, 1948, 1952, 1954, 1994, and 2006). Every time, the Senate flipped too, even when it had not been predicted to do so. These few examples do not create an iron law of politics, but they do suggest an electoral tendency.
Historically we know when the House goes so does the Senate though this is a tougher hall this year solely because of the number of seats in play. Anything can happen and there is still some potential Republicans won't take full advantage of the political environment that favors them greatly. The bottom line, however, nothing happens unless we get out and vote. Listen to Chuck and convince your friends and neighbors they need to vote. We certainly don't need another Barack Obama Day to regret at leisure:
Permit me to anticipate a complaint: “Hold the phone, there, amigo! I didn’t vote for him! What do I have to repent of?” Let us be rigorously fair in the matter: we are all to blame. Who among us doesn’t have a gullible friend or an uninformed neighbor, upon whom the employment of even modest hortatory skills might have resulted in a vote for comparative sanity? How many senile uncles out there might a loving niece or nephew have helped to a more judicious choice through the use of, say, an absentee ballot? Nay, we are all sinners.
With today’s ratings changes in 10 House districts, The Cook Political Report is now raising its House forecast from a Republican net gain of between 32 and 42 seats to a gain of between 35 and 45 seats, with the odds of an outcome larger than that range greater than the odds of a lesser outcome. A turnover of 39 seats would tip majority status into Republican hands.
Here are the races moved a step to the right today:
TENNESSEE | District 4: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (8/17/10)
SOUTH DAKOTA | District AL: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (8/17/10)
PENNSYLVANIA | District 10: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (8/17/10) PENNSYLVANIA | District 8: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (8/17/10)
OHIO | District 16: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (8/17/10)
ILLINOIS | District 11: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (8/17/10)
IOWA | District 3: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (8/17/10)
GEORGIA | District 8: Likely Democrat to Toss Up (8/17/10)
FLORIDA | District 2: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (8/17/10)
CALIFORNIA | District 47: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (8/17/10)
The White House obsession with health care borders on the pathological at this point. A month after Scott Brown won his earthquake victory in Massachusetts, the Obama administration is reportedly writing its' own bill which is then to be passed through reconciliation. Are we to believe they think the American people will suddenly adore this bill if it is passed by what is commonly referred to as "the nuclear option?" They can not let it go. It's nearly impossible to believe they can be so staggeringly ignorant they would pass this bill by the most divisive means possible. Still they persist.
Political analyst Charlie Cook likened this administration's obsession with health care to Bush's decision to go to war in Iraq. Whether you agree or disagree with the analogy, it is stunning to hear a decidely left-leaning but fair analyst discuss the magnitude of the health care failure and its implications for this White House and the Democratic Congress. Cook makes some grim statements on the fate of Democrats in the following clip. Full transcript available at National Journal
Politico is reporting Cook Political Report made ratings changes in 25 House races all in favor of Republicans to reflect the increasingly bleak prospects for Democrats as they head into the 2010 midterm elections. A January 25, 2010 analysis showed Democrats with 49 seats in the lean or toss up category while Republicans had 10. The February 18th assessment shows Democrats with 52 seats in the lean or toss up category while Republicans now have 6. Seats that were previously thought untouchable have suddenly become vulnerable:
The list of potentially vulnerable Democrats, according to the Cook Report, includes members who have been virtually untouchable in the past, including Rep. Dave Obey (D-Wis.), the powerful chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, and Rep. Nick Rahall, the chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee, who hasn’t faced a competitive race since 1990.
“At this rate, Democrats are likely to lose at least 25-35 seats in the House and would have to bend the current trajectory of the cycle to hold onto their House majority,” wrote Cook Political Report House analyst David Wasserman.
Republicans once thought to be vulnerable have also been changed to show incumbents in better positions for reelection. Michelle Bachmann has moved from lean Republican to Likely Republican despite targeted efforts to defeat her:
Republican members who began the election cycle in a highly vulnerable position appear to be in better shape. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), whose provocative rhetoric has made her a top GOP target, saw her status moved from “lean Republican” to the safer “likely Republican” rating — even though she’s facing two well-funded Democratic opponents, state Sen. Tarryl Clark and physician Maureen Reed.
Both Clark and Reed “would have probably beaten this lightning rod incumbent had they been running in 2008,” Wasserman wrote.
Democrats appear not have gotten this memo if the current cycle of Bachmann attack ads running on Google are any indication. Perhaps they might find better ways to spend their money. The list of Republicans on more solid ground for reelection is growing. Cook shows Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska) as a near lock for reelection as are Reps. Erik Paulsen (R-MN), Bill Young (R-FL.), Tom Rooney (R-FL), Mark Souder (R-IN), Thad McCotter (R-MI) and Judy Biggert (R-IL).
When the report was last updated Patrick Murphy (PA 8) had just been moved from safe to likely Democratic. That seat has since moved to Lean Democratic. While such moves reflect an increasingly perilous election cycle for Democrats, Cook's list still manages to understate that peril. Representative Alan Grayson of Florida is somewhat absurdly listed as Democratic toss up intending to reflect the race could go in either direction. Grayson has to be one of the most vulnerable after some of his ridiculous statements this past year. Clearly he is a far left leaning ideologue who is ill-suited to represent an R+2 district. Nevertheless, Cook's continual shifts in favor of Republicans reflect the national mood which is clearly turned away from Democratic governance. It sure does feel like 1994 lately.
Last night's win by Alexi Giannoulias in Illinois coupled with the announcement Dan Coats will come out of retirement to challenge Evan Bayh in Indiana has led to speculation control of the Senate may be in play. Chris Cillizza of The Fix notes the NRSC has wasted not time pointing out the weaknesses of Alexi Giannoulias by releasing the following ad:
Handwringing at The Fix:
With the developments in Illinois and Indiana over the past 24 hours, theCook Political Report now carries 10 Democratic-held seats in their most competitive categories -- meaning, theoretically, that if Republicans ran the table (and lost none of their own toss up seats in Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio) they could get to 51 seats and the Senate majority.
Is it a longshot? Absolutely. But, remember that recent history has shown that in a national political landscape tipped in favor of one party a strong majority of toss up contests tend to fall that party's way.
"Now? No. Absolutely not," said Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report. Republicans "would need top-tier candidates in places like Wisconsin, Indiana, Washington and New York, and after that, they would need everything to fall in place."
"Right now, they don't have serious opportunities in 10 states with Democratic-held Senate seats up this cycle," he said.
Momentum has a way of shaking stronger candidates out of the trees. The Senate may still be a long shot but it is looking less like a long shot than it did before Massachusetts. There is a lifetime politically between now and November, but as of now, the ball is clearly in our court:
The long-shot bid by Republicans to retake control of the Senate is suddenly in play, as the prospect of high-profile Republican candidates entering the fray has pushed the GOP even or ahead in polling for 10 races.
The potential candidacies of former Republican Govs. George E. Pataki in New York and Tommy G. Thompson in Wisconsin are improving the polling fortunes of the party as it pursues seats long in the hands of Democrats, while the anti-government “tea party” movement has provided momentum to Republican challengers in states such as Florida, Arkansas and Pennsylvania.
“If the election were held today, the Republicans could come close to winning back the Senate, if not actually win it,” said pollster John Zogby.
Politico reports Charlie Cook thinks the Massachusetts Senate race slightly favors Brown though it still could go either way:
"This past Thursday, Jan. 14, The Cook Political Report moved the open Massachusetts Senate seat rating from lean Democrat to toss-up, having moved it from solid Democrat to lean Democratic on Jan. 7," Cook wrote. "We continue to see this race as very much of a toss-up, with Republican state Sen. Scott Brown holding onto a very narrow, single-digit lead over Democratic state Attorney General Martha Coakley.
"Given the vagaries of voter turnout, particularly in lower participation level special elections, this race could still go either way, but we put a finger on the scale for Brown. Last-minute Democratic attacks on Brown have driven his negatives up some and slightly diminished the incredible intensity of support that Brown enjoyed, but it looks more likely than not to hold."
Ed Morrissey notes the polls have settled yet runs the numbers based on several different turnout models. Under the best case scenario for Dems, Brown still leads by 4.5 points.
Update II: Reader S averaged the exit-polling data from the 2006 and 2008 races — in which Dems were highly motivated and independents tilted against the GOP — and came up with a 41-18-41 split. In that best-case turnout model, Brown leads by 4.5 points using the ARG survey responses:
2006-8 Average Model
Brown
Coakley
Dems
246
49.2
174.66
GOP
108
101.52
1.08
Indys
246
142.68
91.02
293.4
266.76
48.90%
44.46%
That’s high-end best-case for Coakley, and she’s still losing.
The POTUS is about to speak in Massachusetts, can he reverse the tide? It's all about turnout but an interesting note Fox reported the hall for the POTUS/Coakley event is not full. Still way too early for champagne though.
Via NewsMax - Zogby's latest poll of registered voters showed Obama's approval hitting a new low of 45.3% compared to 50.5 disapproval. In June this number his approval was 51%. July's polls showed a slip down to 48% approval. Obama's sharp decline in approval poses problems because his support has fallen drasticaly among independent or swing voters:
Of greatest concern to Obama may well be his decline among all-important independent voters. Just 37.5 percent of self-identified independents say they approve of how Obama is handling the presidency. That compares with 59.2 percent of independents who disapprove.
Dick Morris, political analyst explains why this group is so important:
"As soon as Obama dropped below 52 percent . . . he was leaking real voters who had backed him in November," Morris tells Newsmax. "Now that he is down to 45 percent among likely voters . . . he is in deep political trouble."
Charlie Cook ofCook Political Report laments a new low for Obama at Gallup among registered voters:
For those of you not addicted to the 1:00pm EDT daily release of Gallup’s three-night moving average tracking poll, President Obama’s job approval rating in both their August 16-18 and August 17-19 averages was just 51 percent, the lowest level of his presidency.
Polls of registered voters tends to show higher approval than polls of likely voters such as Zogby and Rasmussen. Cook seems to share Morris' grim assessment of what these numbers portend for Obama and those who face re-election next year:
These data confirm anecdotal evidence, and our own view, that the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats.
Cook suggests Democrats could face serious losses in their numbers particularly in the House of Representatives.
