Thursday, September 2, 2010

Channel your inner Chuck Norris

My apologies for light blogging. No sooner did my kids head back to school before every computer in the house had some meltdown or another. It's always something isn't it? They're all back up and running except for one which is low priority anyway.

Here is a fun post though brought to you courtesy of Chuck Norris and the NRA reminding us we need to be registered in order to take the country back. Who's going to argue with Chuck?

Just in case Chuck didn't make the case, Cook Political Report just took ten more races and moved them a step to the right:
From House Editor David Wasserman: As the “macro” data for House Democrats continues to look very bleak, we are beginning to see the cracks in Democrats’ House picture expand at the “micro” level. As we gather more individual race-level polling data, we see the once-sunny fortunes of plenty of Democratic incumbents catching up with the dark reality of the overall environment.

This is an environment in which any Democratic laxity or misstep can prove fatal and even underfunded or flawed Republicans can be highly competitive. Some Democrats who took early precautions and have taken aggressive action, such as long-term Reps. Ike Skelton (MO-04) and Rick Boucher (VA-09), are polling well right now in very red districts. For others who haven’t had as much time to build strong relationships with their districts, however, the environmental advantages of 2006 and 2008 have vanished.

Based on the data we are seeing, five more Democrats are joining the Lean Democratic column and five more are joining the Toss Up column.
WYOMING | Governor: Likely Republican to Solid Republican (9/02/10)
TENNESSEE | Governor: Lean Republican to Likely Republican (9/02/10)
PENNSYLVANIA | Governor: Toss Up to Lean Republican (9/02/10)
OREGON | Governor: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (9/02/10)
WEST VIRGINIA | Senate: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (9/02/10)
OHIO | Senate: Toss Up to Lean Republican (9/02/10)
ARKANSAS | Senate: Toss Up to Lean Republican (9/02/10)
WISCONSIN | District 8: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (9/02/10)
WASHINGTON | District 2: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (9/02/10)
TEXAS | District 23: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (9/02/10)
NORTH CAROLINA | District 11: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (9/02/10)
MICHIGAN | District 9: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (9/02/10)
ILLINOIS | District 17: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (9/02/10)
FLORIDA | District 22: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (9/02/10)
COLORADO | District 3: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (9/02/10)
ARIZONA | District 5: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (9/02/10)
ARIZONA | District 1: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (9/02/10)

And with 60 days to go Larry Sabato decides things are looking bleak for the Dems:
Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. This is a “net” number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama’s Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot (discussed later in this essay). If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today.

In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react). GOP leaders themselves did not believe such a result was truly possible just a few months ago. If the Republican wave on November 2 is as large as some polls are suggesting it may be, then the surprise on election night could be a full GOP takeover. Since World War II, the House of Representatives has flipped parties on six occasions (1946, 1948, 1952, 1954, 1994, and 2006). Every time, the Senate flipped too, even when it had not been predicted to do so. These few examples do not create an iron law of politics, but they do suggest an electoral tendency.

Historically we know when the House goes so does the Senate though this is a tougher hall this year solely because of the number of seats in play. Anything can happen and there is still some potential Republicans won't take full advantage of the political environment that favors them greatly. The bottom line, however, nothing happens unless we get out and vote. Listen to Chuck and convince your friends and neighbors they need to vote. We certainly don't need another Barack Obama Day to regret at leisure:
Permit me to anticipate a complaint: “Hold the phone, there, amigo! I didn’t vote for him! What do I have to repent of?” Let us be rigorously fair in the matter: we are all to blame. Who among us doesn’t have a gullible friend or an uninformed neighbor, upon whom the employment of even modest hortatory skills might have resulted in a vote for comparative sanity? How many senile uncles out there might a loving niece or nephew have helped to a more judicious choice through the use of, say, an absentee ballot? Nay, we are all sinners.
Read the rest, this is a Paco classic.

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