Friday, August 21, 2009

Zogby Poll: How Low Can you Go/ Charlie Cook is Worried

Via NewsMax - Zogby's latest poll of registered voters showed Obama's approval hitting a new low of 45.3% compared to 50.5 disapproval. In June this number his approval was 51%. July's polls showed a slip down to 48% approval. Obama's sharp decline in approval poses problems because his support has fallen drasticaly among independent or swing voters:
Of greatest concern to Obama may well be his decline among all-important independent voters. Just 37.5 percent of self-identified independents say they approve of how Obama is handling the presidency. That compares with 59.2 percent of independents who disapprove.
Dick Morris, political analyst explains why this group is so important:
"As soon as Obama dropped below 52 percent . . . he was leaking real voters who had backed him in November," Morris tells Newsmax. "Now that he is down to 45 percent among likely voters . . . he is in deep political trouble."

Charlie Cook ofCook Political Report laments a new low for Obama at Gallup among registered voters:
For those of you not addicted to the 1:00pm EDT daily release of Gallup’s three-night moving average tracking poll, President Obama’s job approval rating in both their August 16-18 and August 17-19 averages was just 51 percent, the lowest level of his presidency.
Polls of registered voters tends to show higher approval than polls of likely voters such as Zogby and Rasmussen. Cook seems to share Morris' grim assessment of what these numbers portend for Obama and those who face re-election next year:
These data confirm anecdotal evidence, and our own view, that the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats.
Cook suggests Democrats could face serious losses in their numbers particularly in the House of Representatives.

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