State of the 2010 House Races

Patrick Ishmael of Hot Air's Green Room has been tracking the most vulnerable House seats currently held by Democrats. Today he updated the list to include 35 downgrades meaning 35 Dem seats ranked more vulnerable while 3 were ranked less vulnerable. This is somewhat a fluid process as polling information is not abundant at this point in the race but it gives a good picture of the state of the House race so far this year.

Ishmael uses a score he calls the Partisan Voting Index Multiplier Electoral Risk (PVIMER)which he explains at length here.  This is a good summary of the scoring:

I’ve aggregated what I believe are the latest predictions from The Cook Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Congressional Quarterly, and the Swing State Project.   I’ve assigned numbers to each of the races they’ve rated and added an enthusiasm multiplier, which I’ll explain later. The scale is straightforward: Toss-ups are rated “0″, Leans rated “1″, Likelies rated “2″, and Solids rated “3.” Negative numbers mean, based on these four sources, a likely GOP seat takeover; positive numbers suggest better prospects for Democrats.

There are 32 seats that are currently scored with a negative number meaning a likely GOP takeover while there are a total of 66 seats rated less than 1.  This gives a pretty clear idea why the professional prognosticators  are starting to say with more certainty the GOP will retake the House.  Of course none of this happens unless we all go out and make it happen; this merely means we are more likely to be successful if we do the work.   Here is the list of vulnerable seats in order of their likelihood of becoming a GOP pickup:

1 LA-3 OPEN (Melancon) -2.2
2 TN-6 OPEN (Gordon) -2.2
3 NY-29 OPEN -1.6
4 AR-2 OPEN (Snyder) -1.4
5 MD-1 Frank Kratovil -1
6 MS-1 Travis Childers -1
7 IN-8 OPEN (Ellsworth)-0.8
8 KS-3 OPEN (Moore) -0.8
9 ND-AL Earl Pomeroy -0.8
10 NM-2 Harry Teague -0.8
11 TN-8 OPEN (Tanner) -0.8
12 TX-17 Chet Edwards -0.8
13 AL-2 Bobby Bright -0.6
14 CO-4 Betsy Markey -0.6
15 SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin-0.6
16 AR-1 OPEN (Berry) -0.4
17 IN-9 Baron Hill -0.4
18 NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter-0.4
19 NH-2 OPEN (Hodes) -0.4
20 OH-1 Steve Driehaus -0.4
21 OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy -0.4
22 VA-5 Tom Perriello -0.4
23 WV-1 Alan B. Mollohan-0.4
24 FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas -0.2
25 MI-7 Mark Schauer -0.2
26 NV-3 Dina Titus -0.2
27 OH-16 John Boccieri -0.2
28 PA-7 OPEN (Sestak) -0.2
29 SC-5 John Spratt -0.2
30 VA-2 Glenn Nye -0.2
31 WA-3 OPEN (Baird) -0.2
32 WI-7 OPEN (Obey) -0.2
33 FL-2 Allen Boyd 0
34 FL-8 Alan Grayson 0
35 ID-1 Walter Minnick 0
36 IL-11 Debbie Halvorson0
37 IL-14 Bill Foster 0
38 MI-1 OPEN (Stupak) 0
39 NC-8 Larry Kissell 0
40 NY-24 Michael Arcuri 0
41 PA-11 Paul Kanjorski 0
42 VA-9 Rick Boucher 0
43 AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick 0.2
44 AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords0.2
45 MO-4 Ike Skelton 0.2
46 OH-18 Zack Space 0.2
47 PA-10 Chris Carney 0.2
48 PA-3 Kathy Dahlkemper0.2
49 PA-8 Patrick Murphy 0.2
50 AZ-5 Harry Mitchell 0.4
51 GA-8 Jim Marshall 0.4
52 CA-11 Jerry McNerney 0.6
53 IA-3 Leonard Boswell 0.6
54 KY-6 Ben Chandler 0.6
55 NY-20 Scott Murphy 0.6
56 NY-23 Bill Owens 0.6
57 PA-12 Critz 0.6
58 TN-4 Lincoln Davis 0.6
59 CO-3 John Salazar 0.8
60 IN-2 Joe Donnelly 0.8
61 MA-10 OPEN (Delahunt) 0.8
62 NJ-3 John Adler 0.8
63 NY-1 Tim Bishop 0.8
64 NY-13 Mike McMahon 0.8
65 NY-19 John Hall 0.8
66 VA-11 Gerald Connolly 0.8
67 FL-22 Ron Klein 1
68 NC-11 Heath Shuler 1
69 NM-1 Martin Heinrich 1
70 OH-13 Betty Sutton 1
71 OR-5 Kurt Schrader 1
72 PA-17 Tim Holden 1
73 PA-4 Jason Altmire 1
74 TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez 1
75 WI-8 Steve Kagen 1
76 WV-3 Nick Rahall 1
77 MI-9 Gary Peters 1.2
78 NY-25 Dan Maffei 1.4
79 UT-2 Matheson 1.4
80 AR-4 Mike Ross 1.6
81 CT-5 Christopher Murphy 1.6
82 IL-8 Melissa Bean 1.6
83 MN-1 Tim Walz 1.6
84 MS-4 Taylor 1.6
85 NC-2 Etheridge 1.6
86 NC-7 Mike McIntyre 1.6
87 OK-2 Boren 1.6
88 WI-3 Ron Kind 1.6
89 CA-18 Dennis Cardoza 1.8
90 CA-47 Loretta Sánchez 1.8
91 CT-4 Jim Himes 1.8
92 GA-2 Sanford Bishop, Jr. 1.8
93 KY-3 John Yarmuth 1.8
94 WA-2 Rick Larsen 1.8
95 CO-7 Ed Perlmutter 2
96 GA-12 John Barrow 2
97 IL-17 Hare 2
98 NJ-12 Rush Holt 2
99 OH-6 Charlie Wilson 2
100 CA-20 Jim Costa 2.2
101 IA-2 Loebsack 2.2
102 OR-1 David Wu 2.2
103 TX-27 Ortiz 2.2
104 IA-1 Bruce Braley 2.4
105 MO-3 Russ Carnahan 2.4
106 RI-1 Kennedy 2.4
107 WA-9 Smith 2.4
108 MA-6 Tierney 2.6
109 ME-1 Pingree 2.6
110 NM-3 Lujan 2.6
111 NJ-6 Pallone 2.8
112 CA-39 Sanchez 3

Be sure to read Ishmael's posts in greater depth  here and here and here and here and here