It could get worse. Of the 36 polls in which Democratic incumbents led, Republican challengers were within three points in 12 contests and within five points in 18 others. By contrast, in the 55 polls in which the GOP leads, the Republican is ahead by more than five points in 36. And in all but two instances in which data are available, the Democrat incumbents are significantly better known than their GOP challengers. As these challengers become better known, they're likely to rise in the polls.Rove gets into the numbers toward the end of this 7 minute clip. If you're interested in the math skip ahead to the 5 minute mark where Karl breaks out the famous white board. The first 5 minutes he discusses Obama's class warrior strategy that seems to be such a loser he even had trouble filling seats in his college campus appearance in Ohio yesterday. Rove sums it up saying "all across America we can hear the sound of teeth gnashing in Democratic headquarters, profanities being said in cars as they travel from campaign event to campaign event. I bet there are a lot of Democrats who go home and cry themselves to sleep at night." All this points to a shake up like Democrats haven't seen in a long time. Rove predicts we may well wake up November 3rd to find a Republican win in a seat we couldn't have imagined likely filled by a candidate we have never heard of.
Indiana's second district is a good example. Republican State Rep. Jackie Walorski trails Democratic Congressman Joe Donnelly by only 44% to 46%, according to an August American Action Forum poll. But Ms. Walorski is known by 78% of voters while Mr. Donnelly's name ID is a near-saturation 97%. This is a very winnable seat for the GOP.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
After looking at the available polling data in Congressional races, Karl finds 34 seats where Republicans lead their Democratic opponents. This is just the beginning: