Saturday, October 23, 2010

Further proof Sidney Harman was robbed

Via Memeorandum

Sidney who?  Funny you should ask.  Sidney Harman, who recently paid $1 for Newsweek , was robbed.  The evidence  comes in form of a poll as worthless as the rag that published it:

Despite doom-saying about Democrats’ chances in the midterms, the latest NEWSWEEK Poll (full results) shows that they remain in a close race with Republicans 12 days before Election Day, while the president’s approval ratings have climbed sharply. The poll finds that 48 percent of registered voters would be more likely to vote for Democrats, compared with 42 percent who lean Republican (those numbers are similar to those in the last NEWSWEEK Poll, which found Democrats favored 48 percent to 43 percent). President Obama’s approval ratings have jumped substantially, crossing the magic halfway threshold to 54 percent, up from 48 percent in late September, while the portion of respondents who disapprove of the president dropped to 40 percent, the lowest disapproval rating in a NEWSWEEK Poll since February 2010. 
There is some evidence Senate polls may be tightening , yet credible left-leaning analysts wouldn't say Democrats have made a comeback.  None of this matters in the fantasy world where Newsweek exists, however.  Newsweek's rigorous methodology and stringent analysis finds "voters give Democrats higher marks for their handling of a range of issues, including the war in Afghanistan, health care, taxes, and unemployment."  Unemployment??  Newsweek readers must be presumed to exist in Kool-Aid comas while Rainbow Skittles are fed continuously through IV drip.   

Alright,  so maybe they are in a coma and so are the people interviewed for this poll.  The most difficult part of a pollster's job, in this midterm election, involves predicting who is likely to vote.   All credible polls must be analyzed with a sharp eye toward their turnout model and their likely voter screen.  Newsweek's likely voters are um, to put it nicely, cheap dates.  In the "record-shattering"  2008 election  that delivered unto us the crowned prince of Hope and Change, 61% of registered voters cast a ballot.  Newsweek randomly sampled a group that will have over 91% of registered voters beating a path to the ballot box:  
Telephone interviews were conducted with a nationally representative sample of 1,005 adults, age 18 years and over, including 672 adults reached on a landline telephone and 333 adults reached on a cell phone. The overall margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for results based on 1,005 adults. Results based on smaller subgroups are subject to larger margins of sampling error. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for results based on 848 registered voters and plus or minus 4.3 percentage points for results based on 773 likely voters.
When they are all done voting, they will immediately be reconnected to their Kool-Aid/Skittle IV drip.  Meanwhile the crowned prince of Hope and Change and his trusty sidekick will head off to India to heal the planet  and cause a few oceans to recede along the way.  Oh yeah - and I am Morgan Fairchild - that's the ticket.

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