Further proof Sidney Harman was robbed

Via Memeorandum

Sidney who?  Funny you should ask.  Sidney Harman, who recently paid $1 for Newsweek , was robbed.  The evidence  comes in form of a poll as worthless as the rag that published it:

Despite doom-saying about Democrats’ chances in the midterms, the latest NEWSWEEK Poll (full results) shows that they remain in a close race with Republicans 12 days before Election Day, while the president’s approval ratings have climbed sharply. The poll finds that 48 percent of registered voters would be more likely to vote for Democrats, compared with 42 percent who lean Republican (those numbers are similar to those in the last NEWSWEEK Poll, which found Democrats favored 48 percent to 43 percent). President Obama’s approval ratings have jumped substantially, crossing the magic halfway threshold to 54 percent, up from 48 percent in late September, while the portion of respondents who disapprove of the president dropped to 40 percent, the lowest disapproval rating in a NEWSWEEK Poll since February 2010. 

There is some evidence Senate polls may be tightening , yet credible left-leaning analysts wouldn't say Democrats have made a comeback.  None of this matters in the fantasy world where Newsweek exists, however.  Newsweek's rigorous methodology and stringent analysis finds "voters give Democrats higher marks for their handling of a range of issues, including the war in Afghanistan, health care, taxes, and unemployment."  Unemployment??  Newsweek readers must be presumed to exist in Kool-Aid comas while Rainbow Skittles are fed continuously through IV drip.   


Alright,  so maybe they are in a coma and so are the people interviewed for this poll.  The most difficult part of a pollster's job, in this midterm election, involves predicting who is likely to vote.   All credible polls must be analyzed with a sharp eye toward their turnout model and their likely voter screen.  Newsweek's likely voters are um, to put it nicely, cheap dates.  In the "record-shattering"  2008 election  that delivered unto us the crowned prince of Hope and Change, 61% of registered voters cast a ballot.  Newsweek randomly sampled a group that will have over 91% of registered voters beating a path to the ballot box:  

Telephone interviews were conducted with a nationally representative sample of 1,005 adults, age 18 years and over, including 672 adults reached on a landline telephone and 333 adults reached on a cell phone. The overall margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for results based on 1,005 adults. Results based on smaller subgroups are subject to larger margins of sampling error. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for results based on 848 registered voters and plus or minus 4.3 percentage points for results based on 773 likely voters.

When they are all done voting, they will immediately be reconnected to their Kool-Aid/Skittle IV drip.  Meanwhile the crowned prince of Hope and Change and his trusty sidekick will head off to India to heal the planet  and cause a few oceans to recede along the way.  Oh yeah - and I am Morgan Fairchild - that's the ticket.

Tweet

American Research Group Poll Brown Up by 3 - Nailbiter

Linked by Stacy McCain at The American Spectator.  Thank You and welcome Spectator readers!
H/T: Hot Air Headlines
American Research Group has a poll of 600 likely voters in Massachusetts conducted between January 12-14 showing Scott Brown with a 3 point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley.  Here is a breakdown of the results"

The poll has a margin of error of 4 points which points to the likelihood the race this Tuesday will be a nailbiter.  I think we expected that already.  Here are a few highlights from the results:

• Brown leads 58 to 37% among Independent voters
• Brown leads 54 to 39% among men while Coakley has a narrower lead among women 50 to 44%.
• 9% of likely voters have already voted by absenteee.  Among those voters Brown leads 58 to 42, wow.
• Brown holds a sizable lead among younger voters 52 to 42 while Coakley has a 1 point lead among voters 50 and older.  

The smaller sample size leads to a higher margin of error.  Brown has substantial leads over Coakley among Independents and among younger voters.  Brown is taking 20% of registered Democrats while Coakley gets only 1% of the registered Republicans.  This all bodes well for Brown.

 One concerning point is Coakley's slim lead among older voters.  I would suggest there is a significant difference between the 50-64 age group and the over 65 group.  Those over 65 could be greatly impacted by the cuts to Medicare whereas the 50-64 age group might see those cuts as preserving Medicare as they approach the age for enrollment.  I would be interested in seeing if the over 65 group was inclined to support Brown over Coakley.

Clearly Democrats must be nervous, but Democrats don't nailbite they call in the Cavalry.  The Other McCain who is reporting from the ground in Massachusetts linked a disturbing anecdote reported at DaTechGuy's Blog:

For example at the Bill Clinton event in Worcester at the end while I waited for my son to attempt to get the president autograph (in vain) I stood quietly next to some much better dressed men from the Coakley Campaign who were apparently talking to Union guys from out of state. The gist was that the “Cavalry was coming” and they talked with the quiet confidence of gamblers who know which boxer is going to take a dive.

Michelle Malkin warns the purple army "marches on Massachusetts."   I hope the GOP has learned a lesson from the Coleman/Franken race, get some lawyers to Masssachusetts and challenge everything.

ObamaCare Hammered in Public Opinion

Taegan Goddard's Political Wire is running with a finding in the latest Quinnipiac opinion poll showing Congressional Republicans at their lowest grades since Obama's election on the following points:

• Voters disapprove 64 - 25 percent of the way Republicans in Congress are doing their job, with 42 percent of Republican voters disapproving;

• Only 29 percent think Republicans on Capitol Hill are acting in good faith;

• Voters trust Obama more than Republicans 47 - 31 percent to handle health care;

• Voters 53 - 25 percent have an unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party. 
  

First, let us acknowledge this poll samples registered voters which would produce results that favor Democrats more than a poll that samples likely voters though it skews results less than a sample of adults.  That said, the most glaring problem with this poll is the questioning such as we see here:

15. Who do you trust to do a better job handling health care - President Obama or the Republicans in Congress?

No such question is asked comparing Congressional Democrats to Obama's handling of health care.  As such question 15 can only lead to an odious comparison between Obama and Congressional Republicans.  Far more revealing however, clear majorities of Republicans and Independents do not see Democrats making a good faith effort to cooperate with Republicans as we see in the following response:

21. Do you think Obama and the Democrats in Congress are, or are not, making a good faith effort to cooperate with the Republicans on health care reform?

Tot                         Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His



Yes/Making effort    41%    18%    69%    34%    38%    45%    36%    67%    55%
No/Not mkg effort    46     73     16     53     53     39     52     12     34

Those who oppose the Democrats reform do so because it is believed it will expand government and increase deficits.   This is the real bad news for Congressional Democrats and Obama found in this poll:

On the negative side, voters don't believe 71 - 19 percent that Obama can keep his promise that health insurance reform will not add to the federal deficit, down from 72 - 21 percent disbelief August 5. Even Democrats believe 50 - 32 percent that health insurance reform will add to the deficit.

That a high percentage of Republicans are dissatisfied with Republicans in Congress reflects much different concerns than those who see Republicans not being cooperative.  The overwhelming fear among Republicans is that they will be too cooperative.   Lest anyone forget however, Democrats control the government right now.  That their proposals for reform have generated strong opposition is a secret the media would like to keep from voters.  There is no easier way to hide that message than focusing on absurd comparisons between Obama and the minority party who don't have the votes to stop ObamaCare unless there is a groundwell of public opposition to the program.  The Quinnipiac buries the notion in the last line of their report:

"They trust Obama more than congressional Republicans on health care. Yet there is no groundswell of support of his health care plan itself."

Political Wire buries it in the headline:

Republicans Hammered in Public Opinion

Ed Morrissey at Hot Air shows how the Pew poll  that samples with a huge partisan split shows Obamacare rejected by a margin of 13 points.  As Ed notes this portion of a poll released earlier in the week but was withheld from release until today. There is no easier way to lie to the public than through statistics.  Nevertheless, the main stream media fall over themselves to invent new and creative ways to hide the sad truth, the public doesn't support this health care reform. 

H/T: Memeorandum

Interesting Finds Around the Blogosphere

The Daily Uprising has a 4 minute video with highlights (lowlights?) from the first 500 pages of the monstrous HC3200.

Erick Erickson at RedState has a scoop on a poll taken by James Carville. It's really bad, so bad you'll never hear it on the MSM. Highlights:

53% of those likely to vote in 2010 think Obama is too liberal. The same number think he’s going to raise taxes. 55% think he doesn’t deliver on his promises.

Oh, and Republicans lead Democrats by 13 points on the issue of who will be a better steward of our tax dollars.

And So it goes in Shreveport has a video of an AARP meeting from hell.

Peggy Noonan "There’s a new tone in the debate, and it’s ugly. At the moment the Democrats are looking like something they haven’t looked like in years, and that is: desperate."

CBO Has Spoken - What's Next in Health Care?

Just heard an NBC news report this morning that there will be no vote in either the House or Senate before the August recess. Nancy Pelosi is reportedly going to resume negotiations in the House Energy and Commerce Committee. This leaves HR 3200 hanging out there in the month of August like a pinata. The bill, written in haste, leaves plenty for special interest groups to whack away at over the summer recess. House representatives are likely to get an earful from their constituents over some of the more controversial aspects of the legislation.

Whether this criticism will result in legislation that actually does bend the costs downward while attempting to cover a greater number of people with quality health insurance, seems not very likely. Take for example the recent CBO report declaring the IMAC an ineffective means of bending back costs which was the President's stated goal. Jonathan Cohn writes in "The Treatment" blog at "The New Republic," there are three options open in light of the CBO reports available to Democratic leadership. The first is to actually revise IMAC according to the CBO points, which Cohn suggests is the position the Obama Administration seems to prefer. The second which Cohn advocates is to proceed despite CBO's reports as the legislation pays for itself over the next decade and may result in savings. Cohn notes that it wouldn't be the first time CBO gets the analysis wrong. The third option is to kill reform altogether.

It seems the Democratic leadership have opted to go with option number two. Hot Air cites a report in The Hill:

Democrats are going to seek to convince skeptics that the healthcare overhaul has other provisions, such as prevention and wellness measures, that will provide benefits and save money, a House leadership aide told The Hill on Sunday.

In his analysis of the repercussions of the latest CBO report, Keith Hennessey quotes a friend, “At some point the advocates of this reform package need to realize that the only way to cut spending is to cut spending.” Unfortunately, it looks like the reform advocates are not likely to come to that realization any time soon, if ever. Perhaps if the President's poll numbers continue to drop as the Administration and Democratic Congress focus on health care legislation while the public struggles with the reality of massive unemployment and a brutal economy, Congress will get the message to stop playing around with smoke and mirror reform and either created meaningful reform or devote their attention to the economy. Judging from the reaction to the CBO reports, however,, it seems more likely Congress and the Administration consider all criticism to be coming from the man behind the curtain rather than the Great and Powerful Oz, which doesn't bode well for meaningful reform or the American people.

Obama Approval Falls Below 50%

Poll isn't currently updated on Rasmussen's site. Be sure to check as it is likely to be updated soon. This is a very big plunge in a young Presidency. Rasmussen only polls likely voters and has a very high rate of accuracy, I believe they were near dead on in the 2008 election which is proof their polling is sound. Polls that show approval near 55% are not polling likely voters and often have skewed populations which can only lead to a skewed result. I suspect the number may pull up a bit over the weekend, you often get a slightly different group than during the work week.