Dodd Taking a Dive for the Dems

The Fix reports Senator Dodd will be spending more time in that Irish cottage in the near future:

Embattled Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd (D) has scheduled a press conference at his home in Connecticut Wednesday at which he is expected to announce he will not seek re-election, according to sources familiar with his plans.

Dodd's retirement comes after months of speculation about his political future, and amid faltering polling numbers and a growing sense among the Democratic establishment that he could not win a sixth term. It also comes less than 24 hours after Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) announced he would not seek re-election.

State Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is widely expected to step into the void filled by Dodd and, at least at first blush, should drastically increase Democrats' chances of holding the seat.

Public Policy Polling tweeted the good news for Democrats, "Our CT polling is confirming a Blumenthal/Dodd swap would make the seat uber safe for Dems."  Markos Moulitsas and  assorted liberals  were actually quite happy to hear the news after stewing on the looming loss Senator Dorgan's announcement would surely bring.  It may well be, the best chance for a GOP pickup in CT relied on Senator Dodd and his dirty laundry staying in the election.

Still, bad news as it often does, came in threes for the Democrats as Marc Ambinder noted in The Atlantic.   Colorado Governor Bill Ritter (D) seems to be dropping his reelection bid as well.  Dodd and Ritter were in serious jeopardy of losing and it appears higher powers saw the handwriting on the wall:

On balance, Republicans today gained a foothold in North Dakota, and Democrats increased their likelihood of keeping their Senate seat in Connecticut. Privately, senior White House officials have communicated to Dodd their belief that his position was untenable. A sinecure or administration position is likely.

Botton line: from a micro perspective, the GOP gains nothing from today. From a macro perspective, anytime three major Democratic party figures retire...ain't good for that party.

The biggest lesson from today is psychological. There are a lot of Democrats who want to retire, and their colleagues, in essence, are giving them cover to do so. That's what makes Democrats so nervous.

Democrats appear to be offering their losers, like Dodd, a deal to retire in order to have enough time to field a strong candidate for the November elections.  That Dodd would take such a deal should surprise no one. That is, after all, how he came to own the scenic cottage in Ireland.  Democrats do not have stars like Blumenthal to replace all their vulnerable candidates so I don't expect many offers that can't be refused unless a star is on board and committed to run. While the strategy may help here and there, the Democrats are really running from the inevitable backlash against their leftist agenda.  Different Candidates are merely different Democrats, they'll still have a target on their back.

Thanks to Urban Grounds for linking!

A Gut Punch to Senate Democrats:

Chuck Todd tweeted his initial reaction to the news Senator Byron Dorgan is retiring instead of running for re-election, calling it a gut punch to SenatAe Democrats. NRO online has a round up of other significant reactions to the news. It is interesting reading but, more importantly, the collection of tweets reveals how damaging this news is to Democrats.

As Allahpundit notes Dorgan was done in by his health care vote:

‘Twas ObamaCare that killed the beast. Health-care reform is radioactive in North Dakota and, thanks to his support for it, so was Dorgan: As of two weeks ago, as a three-term incumbent, he trailed the state’s Republican governor John Hoeven in a hypothetical match-up by fully 22 points.

 Dorgan's statement cites the length of his service and a desire to pursue other interests as reasons for his decision to retire.   Let's just say the thoughts of losing after 30 years must have had a little something to do with it.  This is a sure pickup for the GOP which makes today a little taste of what's to come in November.  So, who's next?

Senator Byron Dorgon: Is he Prepared to Walk the Health Care Plank?

Zogby shows what is at stake with his health care vote for Senator Byron Dorgon who already trails Republican Governor John Hoeven in the poll for reelection 56% to 36% but has a lead on another potential challenger Duane Sand 60% to 28%. 62% of those polled either strongly or somewhat oppose the health care legislation making its way through Congress. Independents oppose the legislation by a similar margin.

When asked how a vote by Senator Dorgan in support of the healthcare bill would impact their potential vote for the Senator in the 2010 election, 12% of likely voters say they would be more likely to vote for Senator Dorgan as a result, while 40% would be less likely. Forty-six percent say Senator Dorgan's vote on health care makes no difference, including 62% of likely-Dorgan voters.

Voting for health care legislation does nothing to improve Dorgan's chances for reelection.  In fact quite the opposite, the key here being the Independent opposition:

Will Dorgan walk the plank?
H/T: Memeorandum