Martha Coakley on Foreign Policy - Say it With Me "What if Sarah Palin Said That?"

I noticed a conservative friend on facebook joined the group Martha Coakley for Senator.  I did a bit of a double take then quickly clicked onto the page to see why she might join such a group.  I immediately had my answer.  Here is a screenshot of a typical post on the group wall:

Naturally I clicked to watch the video mentioned in the post that inspired so many jokes about Coakley's foreign policy credentials.  As you will see in the clip, Martha's answer to a question about her credentials automatically generates the question, "what if Sarah Palin had said that?"



Coakley's facebook group appears to be an abandoned or forgotten page created to support Coakley in the Democratic primary. The administrators have joined a multitude of liberal groups on facebook and the discussion page for the group seems to have been started back in September. The topics clearly signal an intention to support Coakley. Conservatives seem to have taken over the page and use it to post the many reasons voters should vote for Brown. Some are really quite humorous but also very informative.

Coakley's bona fide facebook page  has attracted a number of conservative members who have joined so they can argue against voting for Coakley as well.  This exchange in particular is positively screaming for a rebuttal.  Perhaps I will send it to one of the conservatives already in the group rather than actually joining the group myself (cringe).   

Coakley has  fewer supporters than Brown and many more there just to make the point voting for her would be a disaster for Massachusetts and the country.  If her page is representative, there are a scarce few who seem highly motivated to elect her.  Clearly she has advantages in a state like Massachusetts, motivated voters don't appear to be among her assets.

Brown Leads by One Point in Latest PPP poll - It's a Toss Up

Marc Ambinder ponders the possibility, "Dems to Croak in Massachusetts?"  Ambinder reprints an email sent from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee he suggests would not have been sent unless there were real fears Coakley could choke:

You need to know this: Polls are tightening in Massachusetts, and America's future hangs on getting Martha Coakley elected to Ted Kennedy's seat on Jan. 19. Winning this special election means passing health care reform and the rest of President Obama's agenda.
We need your help today. The special election is only 10 days away. Funds are needed NOW to fight back against swiftboat attacks. Click here to make an immediate donation of $5 or more to the DSCC.

American Future Fund, the guys who brought you the Swift Boat attacks against decorated war veteran John Kerry, are up with a $400,000 buy, smearing Coakley.She's being outspent, and a new poll shows that the right wing money is doing the trick. Republican Scott Brown is within striking distance.

Keeping this seat blue is critical. Coakley is the 60th vote needed to pass health care and the rest of President Obama's agenda. As Massachusetts' first woman senator, she will help advance Kennedy's legacy - fighting for equal rights, a strong economy, and our families and communities.  Without her vote, health care won't happen.

Yet the plaintive cry that health care won't happen without Coakley's election seems to be what is driving the all important Independent vote towards Brown according to the latest PPP poll:

Brown has eye popping numbers with independents, sporting a 70/16 favorability rating with them and holding a 63-31 lead in the horse race with Coakley. Health care may be hurting Democratic fortunes with that group, as only 27% of independents express support for Obama's plan with 59% opposed.

 Also helping Brown is the relative disinterest among Democrats who don't appear all that motivated to turn out for this special election:

Republicans are considerably more enthusiastic about turning out to vote than Democrats are. 66% of GOP voters say they are 'very excited' about casting their votes, while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment- and that's among the Democrats who areplanning to vote in contrast to the many who are apparently not planning to do so at this point.

 Support for Brown has less to do with approval of Republicans in general.  In fact, only 21% of Massachusetts voters signal their approval of Congressional Republicans.  A large block of voters, however, those who disapprove of both parties appear to be poised to support the party out of power.  Toss in high personal approval of Brown and you have all the makings for a repeat of Virginia and to a lesser degree New Jersey because Christie's approval was not nearly as high as Brown's.

PPP as a left leaning pollster appears to have a clear message for Coakley believing she can still turn this around:

Here's the reality: the Republicans and GOP leaning independents are going to come out and vote for Scott Brown. There's no doubt about that. But there's also a much larger pool of potential Democratic voters in the state. If Coakley can get them out, she wins. But this race is well past the stage where Democrats can take it for granted that will happen. It will be fascinating to see what happens the final ten days and we'll do a second poll on the race next weekend.

 Coakley may have some difficulty following PPP's advice, however, based on some of the information found in the crosstabs of the poll:

Brown leads 63-31 with independents and is winning 17% of the Democratic vote while Coakley receives only 6% support from GOP voters. Both candidates are relatively popular, with 57% viewing Brown favorably to only 25% unfavorable and 50% with a positive opinion of Coakley to 42% negative.

Brown's favorability at +32 vs +8 for Coakley along with  his support among the Democratic vote outstrips Coakley's considerably making this race a toss up.  This will come down to turnout as do most special elections.  Still, the mere fact we are discussing the possibility of a Republican winning Ted Kennedy's seat is nothing short of miraculous.   The next ten days are shaping up to be really exciting.

For More:
Professor Jacobson spent the day at Brown's headquarters, be sure to read his report.
Lots more at Memeorandum too.

More Trouble for Harry

In light of my last post, this is what you would have to call Harry Reid's "no good very bad day."  Chris Cillizza reports revelations from the Mark Halperin and John Heileman's book "Game Change" show Harry Reid making  some rather stupid racially-charged remarks about Barack Obama in private conversation.  From The Atlantic:

encouragement of Obama was unequivocal. He was wowed by Obama's oratorical gifts and believed that the country was ready to embrace a black presidential candidate, especially one such as Obama -- a "light-skinned" African American "with no Negro dialect, unless he wanted to have one," as he said privately.  Reid was convinced, in fact, that Obama's race would help him more than hurt him in a bid for the Democratic nomination.

Reid has apologized according to Cillizza's report:

 Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) apologized today for referring to President Barack Obama as "light skinned" and "with no Negro dialect" in private conversations during the 2008 presidential campaign.

"I deeply regret using such a poor choice of words," said Reid in a statement. "I sincerely apologize for offending any and all Americans, especially African Americans for my improper comments."

 Of course if you're a Democrat an apology is all that is necessary when you make stupid racial comments.  Democrats just don't have those game changing "Makaka" moments that destroy the political careers of Republicans.  Democrats get a pass because they are all for giving the African American community more welfare instead of jobs.  I guess that is offset by the top notch educational system the Democrats and their union bosses have developed for the inner city schools frequently attended by African American youth.
The lesson to be learned here is if you are going to say really stupid things about African Americans either don't get caught or have a big D after your name.

Cillizza concludes:

It's unclear whether the near-certain controversy his remarks about Obama will cause might force Reid to reassess his re-election plans.

 There would be no "near-certain" if Reid were a Republican, controversy would be certain-certain as would the subsequent reassessment of re-election plans.  If this is in the news by mid week perhaps Reid makes plans for his unexpected retirement, I am not holding my breath.

More on this at Memeorandum

How Do You Solve a Problem Like Harry Reid?

Democrats were able to solve a problem like Chris Dodd with a little heavy pressure that he stop, drop and roll right on out of the race.  How do you solve a problem like Harry Reid though?  The Senate majority leader dropping from the race is nothing short of an admission the Democrats need to abandon their sinking ship.  Review Journal gives us a glimpse of Reid's problems in 2010:

• 52 percent had an unfavorable opinion of Reid, 33 percent had a favorable view and another 15 percent said they're neutral. In early December, a Mason-Dixon poll put his unfavorable-favorable rating at 49-38. The lowest Reid's popularity had slipped before in the surveys was 50 percent -- in October, August and May of 2009, when Mason-Dixon started tracking the senate race for the Review-Journal.
• The poll also took a snapshot of how Reid would do against three potential GOP opponents. In each case -- as in past Review-Journal surveys -- it showed the senator would lose with only four in 10 voters supporting him. The potential match-ups would look like this:
• Sue Lowden, former Nevada Republican Party chairwoman, would get 50 percent of the vote to Reid's 40 percent with 10 percent undecided.
• Danny Tarkanian, a businessman and former UNLV basketball star, would gain 49 percent of the vote to Reid's 41 percent.
• And Sharron Angle, a former Reno assemblywoman, would get 45 percent of the vote to Reid's 40 percent, a strong showing given her low name recognition statewide -- 42 percent don't know her.

Call it a day when the Senate leader is beaten in his home state by someone with low name recognition.  The Democrats really can't make a substitute here.  Reid, as leader, gives his home state advantages.  Why then would the people of Nevada elect a newcomer without Reid's seniority just to elect a Democrat?  Reid's position as leader is his only selling point, and the White House wants to make that clear:

"As Senate majority leader, Harry Reid fights for Nevadans every day through his efforts on behalf of homeowners, by ending Yucca Mountain, and by protecting tens of thousands of Nevada jobs through the Recovery Act," said White House spokesman Adam Abrams. "He is spearheading the historic effort to finally make sure that all Americans can get affordable health care coverage and by partnering with the president, Harry Reid is creating Nevada jobs -- leading the way toward a clean energy future for all Americans."

Still, Coker, the Mason-Dixon pollster, said he believes Reid has ''caught Daschle disease," a reference to the former South Dakota senator and Democratic leader who lost re-election in 2004.  "Now that he's taken over as Senate majority leader, he has to be the spokesman for the (Democratic) cause, and that's a little left of where Nevadans are,'' Coker said. "If anything, he's gone further to the left rather than pull Democrats to the center.''

Coker said the issues that have pulled the Democrats to the left include health care reform and financial institution bailouts, which have angered voters who can't pay their own bills.

Nevadans clearly aren't seeing the benefits of Reid's trip to the left and want a Senator who reflects their values, imagine that!  Reid is irrevocably tied to the left now that he has done his best to jam an unpopular reform through the Senate without Republican support.  Reid's numbers may fluctuate some if the economy improves and job growth feels like a reality instead of Democratic double talk.  Come November, however, the former boxer may find himself down for the count.
Via Memeorandum

Cartoon via Reaganite Republican from another great roundup of cartoons

More Fear and Loathing in Massachusetts

Housekeeping note: My daughter had surgery yesterday so I have been behind in posting here. She's home now and resting so I have time to catch up a bit.

From PPP, a left leaning pollster mind you:

At this point a plurality of those planning to turn out oppose the health care bill. The massive enthusiasm gap we saw in Virginia is playing itself out in Massachusetts as well. Republican voters are fired up and they're going to turn out. Martha Coakley needs to have a coherent message up on the air over the last ten days that her election is critical to health care passing and Ted Kennedy's legacy- right now Democrats in the state are not feeling a sense of urgency.

-Scott Brown's favorables are up around 60%, a product of his having had the airwaves to himself for the last week. By comparison Bob McDonnell's were at 55% right before his election and Chris Christie's were only at 43%. Coakley's campaign or outside groups need to tie Brown's image to national Republicans and knock him down a notch over the final week of the campaign.

This has become a losable race for Democrats

Word of caution:  the post goes on to say it is also winnable if Coakley gets her act together.  Fivethirtyeight gives PPP a decent rating as a pollster but we have no polling info here just the headlines from the polling they have mostly completed but not yet released.  They appear to be sending a message to light a fire under Coakley but in doing so they are also lighting a fire under those who might not turn out for Brown for fear a Republican can never really win in Massachusetts.

 Coakley has played a dream hand very badly but is it enough to lose?   I believe she can lose and NRO has done something unusual; they're asking readers to contribute to  Scott Brown:

Yet it’s still possible Brown could pull off a stunning upset. Since Reid managed to get the health bill through the Senate, we’ve heard the plaint of so many conservatives, “Is this really happening? Is there any way we can still stop it?” Anyone who has asked those questions in recent weeks should go to Scott Brown’s website and contribute, eroding at least one of Coakley’s key advantages. We don’t ordinarily make fundraising pitches for candidates, but these are special circumstances. The way the health-care debate is projecting right now, the Democrats will get their bill and Republicans will exact their retribution in the fall. It’d be even better if retribution arrived early this year.

Early retribution would be a very good thing.  We have a good health care system in this country and letting Democrats tinker with it scares me senseless.  Scott Brown's election is about the best hope of stopping that garbage legislation from becoming law, I am praying for David win over Goliath here.

Thanks to American Power for linking to this post!  Memeorandum has more links on the Scott Brown race in Massachusetts.  Also big thanks to Reaganite Republican for linking as well.