I thought this analysis by John King was pretty good because it highlights distinct elements of the vote which at the end of the day can be used to underscore how today's vote reflects on the Obama administration and agenda regardless of the outcome. If, for example, Corzine manages to pull out a win we would be able to look to shifts in the votes of Independents compared to patterns seen a year ago in the presidential election, to determine whether Obama is gaining or losing that group. There is some effort to spin here but the bottom line is they can't spin it all.
Of course we can't discount the thug factor that may play a role in the Jersey election. When the Democrats feel the need to bring out the gang members to GOTV, they will have a hard time claiming they enjoy any real support at all in my opinion. Democrats are so desperate that in spite of all the recent scrutiny on ACORN fraud, they are addicted to the type of mischief ACORN can wreak on an election.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
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