Election Day Eve Roundup

I was out of town for a bit at a family funeral.  Driving back this afternoon, I listened to Rush for a bit and then some of Hannity.  It looks as though election day eve is upon us and things are looking quite positive for the Republicans heading in to these important elections.  Here are a few things that caught my eye:

Rasmussen shows the new Pelosi health care bill, all 1990 pages of it, are even more unpopular than the old Pelosi health care bill.  This is important especially since tomorrow's elections could be icing on the cake for those who are going to be forced to walk the liberal plank into the shark infested waters of the coming midterm elections.  Voting for an unpopular health care bill will be all that much harder after the state of Virginia turns back into a red state after voting for its first Democratic president since the 60's.

I did catch a glimpse of the news that Scozzafava endorsed the Democrat Owens.   She seems to have gone out of her way to make the conservative argument that RINO's need to be purged.  Scozzafava isn't even in the moderate realm, she is really more a liberal.  She also will make it much less palatable to give to the NRCC, as if it wasn't already tough to support.  Scozzafava took something like $900,000 and loads of support from the party and comes out to support a Democrat?    She just put herself in Arlen Specter range of trustworthiness.

Since Virginia looks to be a blow out, the model for selecting candidates is pretty clear.  Scozzafava and her ilk will bale when the going gets tough while a conservative can win big by focusing on the small government, low tax message.  Of course the party has room for all but those we invest in and give the full support of the party should be tried and true.  Those that selected Scozzafava need to be replaced.

I listened to Hoffman on Hannity while I was driving.  He seems to prefer the underdog mantle despite the latest Siena poll showing him up by 5.  As Ed Morrissey wrote, this is a tough one to predict:

In other words, the race is in a state of flux that may not lend itself to predictions.  Much will depend on the motivation of Scozzafava’s former supporters, who may just take a pass on the election altogether.

This election has the momentum heading in the right direction, however, as does the NJ election for Christie.  I just caught a moment or two of Hardball and heard Matthews making a prediction the election would ending up producing a win for Christie.  Surprisingly, he felt the fat jokes made by Corzine's campaign were a big mistake but continues to suggest the elections are in fact a referendum on Obama.   I will see if I can load the clip when it becomes available.

Scozzafava Quits Race in NY-23 UPDATED

Breaking News:  Stacy McCain has a message up on Twitter announcing Dede Scozzafava has quit the race in the New York 23rd Congressional election.  According to McCain, Scozzafava broke down in tears announcing her decision, which came after a new Siena poll showed Hoffman and Owens in a dead heat but Scozzafava still fading.  She threw her support to Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman.  The Siena poll shows Hoffman support surging:

"While Owens has picked up three points of support over the last few weeks, Hoffman has surged going from third place and 23 percent support to now being virtually tied for the lead with 35 percent support," said Siena spokesman Steve Greenberg.

"...Owens has shown slow, steady momentum, particularly with Democratic and independent voters," Greenberg continued. "With the exception of Democrats, however, Hoffman has picked up considerable steam with voters of virtually every demographic, and particularly with Republican, younger and Catholic voters. He has picked up 10 points in the region he does best in, 12 points in the region Owens wins and 15 points in Scozzafava’s home territory."

Ed Morrissey at Hot Air had reported earlier GOP Chairman Michael Steele has said a win by Hoffman would be welcomed by Republicans.  I wonder if Scozzafava was urged to drop in light of her fading chances and the possibility that her continued presence in the race could end up with the Democrat candidate Owens sneaking past for a win.  Karl Rove, in an appearance on Greta last night that the Republicans should embrace Hoffman but expressed concern over the three party race as well.  Meanwhile the White House has made the 23rd election a priority sending Joe Biden to campaign for Owens, hoping to come out of Tuesday's election with something to claim as a win.  Looks as though Scozzafava just threw a monkey in the works for which she deserves the thanks of all who have supported Hoffman.

UPDATE:  Ed Morrissey has more:

Scozzafava has seen her negatives explode, while her two opponents have only become more accepted as they became more well known.  She has no chance of winning this race, and her withdrawal leaves Hoffman with the Republican vote whether she endorses him or not.

On the Siena poll Ed writes:

According to the poll, Hoffman had attracted 50% of the Republican vote, while Owens had 2/3rds of the Democrats.  Hoffman leads Owens among independents, 40%-35%, and the remaining 15% supporting Scozzafava will almost certainly break more towards Hoffman than Owens.  Owens will likely get more of Scozzafava’s Democratic supporters, but she only had 11%, while 14% have already gone to Hoffman.  Hoffman and Owens had a near-even split of the opposition in Scozzafava’s regional stronghold of Jefferson/Lewis/St. Lawrence counties, but I’d be surprised if Hoffman didn’t pick up more in those areas of disaffected Scozzafava voters, too.

Hoffman now has the default Republican endorsement with Scozzafava’s retreat, as well as all of the late momentum.

That looks like game over to me. Tuesday is likely to be a sad day for the Democrats and the Obama administration.