Election Day Eve Roundup

I was out of town for a bit at a family funeral.  Driving back this afternoon, I listened to Rush for a bit and then some of Hannity.  It looks as though election day eve is upon us and things are looking quite positive for the Republicans heading in to these important elections.  Here are a few things that caught my eye:

Rasmussen shows the new Pelosi health care bill, all 1990 pages of it, are even more unpopular than the old Pelosi health care bill.  This is important especially since tomorrow's elections could be icing on the cake for those who are going to be forced to walk the liberal plank into the shark infested waters of the coming midterm elections.  Voting for an unpopular health care bill will be all that much harder after the state of Virginia turns back into a red state after voting for its first Democratic president since the 60's.

I did catch a glimpse of the news that Scozzafava endorsed the Democrat Owens.   She seems to have gone out of her way to make the conservative argument that RINO's need to be purged.  Scozzafava isn't even in the moderate realm, she is really more a liberal.  She also will make it much less palatable to give to the NRCC, as if it wasn't already tough to support.  Scozzafava took something like $900,000 and loads of support from the party and comes out to support a Democrat?    She just put herself in Arlen Specter range of trustworthiness.

Since Virginia looks to be a blow out, the model for selecting candidates is pretty clear.  Scozzafava and her ilk will bale when the going gets tough while a conservative can win big by focusing on the small government, low tax message.  Of course the party has room for all but those we invest in and give the full support of the party should be tried and true.  Those that selected Scozzafava need to be replaced.

I listened to Hoffman on Hannity while I was driving.  He seems to prefer the underdog mantle despite the latest Siena poll showing him up by 5.  As Ed Morrissey wrote, this is a tough one to predict:

In other words, the race is in a state of flux that may not lend itself to predictions.  Much will depend on the motivation of Scozzafava’s former supporters, who may just take a pass on the election altogether.

This election has the momentum heading in the right direction, however, as does the NJ election for Christie.  I just caught a moment or two of Hardball and heard Matthews making a prediction the election would ending up producing a win for Christie.  Surprisingly, he felt the fat jokes made by Corzine's campaign were a big mistake but continues to suggest the elections are in fact a referendum on Obama.   I will see if I can load the clip when it becomes available.

Thoughts on the Urge to Purge

Via Memeorandum, Politico has the daily dose of drama on the supposed civil war among Republicans, again.  They found a few moderates who felt the urge to gnash some teeth while they weep and wail over the national support for the conservative candidate Doug Hoffman in New York's 23rd district over Dede Scozzafava.  Almost right from the jump, Politico frames the argument entirely wrong:

The message from national and New York conservatives is unambiguous, though: This was an angry, energized base telling the national party that an anything-for-a-majority approach by GOP leaders is unacceptable. They are serious and deeply concerned about what's going on in Washington.

No, the angry, energized base was not saying that an anything-for-a-majority approach is unacceptable.  We don't think we can win when our candidate is virtually indistinguishable from the Democrat.  Of course there will be both Congressional and Senatorial seats that cannot be won by running a hard line right-wing candidate.  We need to focus on the best candidate and one who will be with the party on the matters that have most appeal to swing voters right now, smaller government, taxes and  deficit spending.  Unemployment is rapidly approaching 10%, people need to get back to work which can only come through spurring economic development.  This is the critical message, this is the winning message.

Democrats in Congress have held the country hostage this year as they tried to pass legislation that can only blow holes the size of Texas in the already bleeding fiscal budget.   Democrats already know this is wounding them and can see the freight train coming for them in 2010.  While they pretend to worry about righting the ship, the left wing of their party insists on taking on more water.  It is a strategy doomed to fail.  The only way to stop it is to be the one setting the agenda instead of the ones who are shut out of the room.

If Doug Hoffman wins on Tuesday, it will be because the district would vote for a more conservative candidate than the one the local officials thought possible.  This was clearly misguided.  While there are quite a few moderates in this area, the district has a long history of supporting the Republican candidate.  It leans right, there was no need to lean further to the left than the Democrats to find a candidate.   The angst among the moderates on social issues is misplaced.  Voters are worried about keeping their jobs and frankly, it is the moderates who are beating the social issue drum over the economic drum.  They beat it so loudly, the left assumes there must be  blood in the water.  They want there to be blood in the water.  Let's not give it to them.

Sarah Palin's instincts were dead on in this election, and her message now is the right one, "it's time to unite."

I want to personally thank Republican Dede Scozzafava for acting so selflessly today in the NY District 23 race. Now it's time to cross the finish line with Doug Hoffman so that he can get to work for District 23 and the rest of America.

With Congress poised to overhaul one-sixth of our economy with so-called health care “reform” (which is really a government takeover of health care) and with plans to enact a cap-and-tax bill just as our economy struggles to recover, Doug Hoffman will be a voice for fiscal responsibility and common sense in Washington.

We need candidates like Doug now more than ever. In these final days of the campaign, it's vital that Doug continue to receive the enthusiastic support of those who want to bring common sense to Washington. Let’s help make it happen! You can help Doug by visiting his official website today and offering your support: https://www.doughoffmanfor

 While Palin rallied the right in this election toward a likely victory with a conservative candidate, her most crucial role in 2010 may be to rally the right to back off when calls for a more conservative candidate than is reasonably electable become overpowering.  These instances will be fewer and further between than the media and some teeth gnashing moderates would have us believe but Palin might make the case more effectively than anyone when those instances arise.  The election in the NY-23 was not one of those instances.

Palin Endorses Hoffman

From her Facebook:

The people of the 23rd Congressional District of New York are ready to shake things up, and Doug Hoffman is coming on strong as Election Day approaches! He needs our help now.

The votes of every member of Congress affect every American, so it's important for all of us to pay attention to this important Congressional campaign in upstate New York. I am very pleased to announce my support for Doug Hoffman in his fight to be the next Representative from New York's 23rd Congressional district. It's my honor to endorse Doug and to do what I can to help him win, including having my political action committee, SarahPAC, donate to his campaign the maximum contribution allowed by law.

Our nation is at a crossroads, and this is once again a "time for choosing."

The federal government borrows, spends, and prints too much money, while our national debt hits a record high. Government is growing while the private sector is shrinking, and unemployment is on the rise. Doug Hoffman is committed to ending the reckless spending in Washington, D.C. and the massive increase in the size and scope of the federal government. He is also fully committed to supporting our men and women in uniform as they seek to honorably complete their missions overseas.

And best of all, Doug Hoffman has not been anointed by any political machine.

Doug Hoffman stands for the principles that all Republicans should share: smaller government, lower taxes, strong national defense, and a commitment to individual liberty.

Political parties must stand for something. When Republicans were in the wilderness in the late 1970s, Ronald Reagan knew that the doctrine of "blurring the lines" between parties was not an appropriate way to win elections. Unfortunately, the Republican Party today has decided to choose a candidate who more than blurs the lines, and there is no real difference between the Democrat and the Republican in this race. This is why Doug Hoffman is running on the Conservative Party's ticket.

Republicans and conservatives around the country are sending an important message to the Republican establishment in their outstanding grassroots support for Doug Hoffman: no more politics as usual.

You can help Doug by visiting his official website below and joining me in supporting his campaign:
http://www.doughoffmanforcongress.com/donate3.html.

For More Robert Stacy McCain has a piece at The American Spectator who is reporting from New York.  McCain covered a press conference and rally featuring Dick Armey.   Armey and Hoffman share support for a flat tax which will simplify the tax code and create opportunities for growth that is badly needed in our economy.  Republicans need bold colors, to quote Reagan and echo Palin's sentiments in her Hoffman endorsement.  There will be districts that call for socially moderate candidates but the party must back those who support small government, lower taxes and economic growth.  Scazzofava is not a candidate of bold colors, she is indistinguishable on nearly all issues from the liberal Owens. 

For more on this see all the buzz at Memeorandum

Doug Hoffman Can Win

Chris Cillizza asks the question: Can Doug Hoffman Win in a post at The Fix. Buried in the post is a bit of news those rooting for the conservative Hoffman will find quite hopeful. Hoffman, who is running as a Conservative, appears to have bumped ahead of Scazzofava in the internal polling according to sources from both sides of the political divide:

In the latest Siena College poll released on Oct. 15, Owens led the field with 33 percent followed by Scozzafava at 29 percent and Hoffman at 23 percent. But, it was Hoffman who had gained the most since an Oct. 1 Siena survey; Hoffman moved up seven points in that time while Owens gained five points and Scozzafava lost five points. (Sources on both sides of the partisan aisle suggest that internal polling shows Scozzafava in third place now.)

Opinions vary on whether Hoffman can rise higher or whether he has reached the limit (or close to it) of his support.

Conventional wisdom suggests that while the North Country seat leans to Republicans in terms of registration -- as of April 2009 there were roughly 46,000 more GOPers than Democrats in the district -- there are simply not enough Republicans to split the base vote between Hoffman and Scozzafava and have either one win. (The district has long been represented by a Republican but President Obama carried it with 52 percent in 2008.)

Erick Erickson at Red State confirms Cilizza's reporting is consistent with what he has heard for over a week.  Cilizza is likely correct on the point there are not enough Republicans to split the base and have either one win but a quick look at the Siena poll  suggests support for Owens may be overstated in the poll.  The poll report shows on the issues it is only Hoffman who has gained support over the last two weeks:

“While voters give a small edge to Owens on virtually all of the issues, it is particularly interesting to note that it is Hoffman who has picked up the most support on every issue over the last two weeks,” Greenberg said. “When asked which candidate would be better on taxes, the voters divided virtually evenly among the three candidates.

Moreover, the crosstabs suggest the poll may have leaned heavily on Democratic respondents.  For example, Cillizza notes the district has a significant number of registered Republicans, yet the response to a question concerning favorability of Barack Obama shows a higher result than might be seen in other polls:

For a district that traditionally leans right and has higher GOP registrations to have increased favorability for Obama seems highly unlikely in a poll of likely voters.  The district voted for Obama by the same margin by which he was elected nationally.  The poll results are quite a bit more favorable to Obama than Rasmussen's polling shows as well.  Also support for Scozzafava is fading but support for Owens, even with a likely skewed poll shows support for him is soft:

Scozzafava is losing voters in all three affiliations, while Hoffman gains in all three:

Among Independents Hoffman made the largest gains picking up 11 points while Owens picked up 5.  With Hoffman making large gains among Independents and Republicans, the momentum seems clearly in his favor.  Cillizza reports that large cash infusions from Obama's NY fundraising will be poured into Owens coffers.  It is likely that ads will be targeted against Hoffman rather than Scazzofava.  For those who support sending a message to the GOP about backing liberals over strong conservative candidates, now would be the time to make a donation to the Hoffman campaign.   Click here to make a donation, remember every bit makes a difference.

For more see NRO editorial, " On the Right, an Upstate Upstart

The Other McCain  has an exclusive with Hoffman:

NY23 EXCLUSIVE: Hoffman asks Obama for Justice monitors to prevent vote fraud

H/T: Memeorandum