Bunghole Buffoons Presents Menage a Stella Artois

Via Salon in one of those broken clock type moments, Washington Post pundits Chris Cillizza and Dana Millbank are justifiably assailed for their failed go at the hypothetical beer meme. As Salon succinctly notes, "this week's video searches through the garbage dump of puns recently made about the president's beer summit and does some recycling."



More broken clock moments - I totally agree with Joan Walsh.

Postcards From the Economic Abyss

Jared Bernstein made an appearance on the Pravda channel MSNBC to tout the news 2nd Quarter GDP only contracted at a rate of 1% compared to the 5.4% and 6.4% contraction of previous quarters. As I write President Obama takes to the airwaves to proclaim this news proof positive of the wondrous efforts of team Obama to save the economy from complete collapse. MSNBC is all a-tingle with this "green shoot" of good news and running with it for all it's glory. The President made quite a fuss about the riproaring success of the cash-for-clunkers program. Phew, what a relief, never mind those nasty polls you have been seeing lately, we're all saved.

Not so fast, let's take a look at the big picture and what those miraculous GDP numbers tell us. Donald Marron has prepared a handy-dandy little chart that shows broad weakness in 2nd quarter GD:



Marron notes the most glaring feature of the data is the broadness of the weakness in each sector of GDP. Offsetting the weakness is increased government spending and more importantly a decrease in imports:

A sharp decline in imports, finally, was the biggest contributor to growth in Q2, at least in an accounting sense. It’s important to choose your words carefully here, since declining imports are clearly not the path to prosperity.

And as for government spending:

Not surprisingly, government spending helped offset the declines in private spending. Most of the boost came from defense spending, but state and local investment also helped (perhaps some glimmers of stimulus?).

Credit where credit is due, there is a glimmer of hope from the Trillion dollar stimulus. But the GDP estimate shows declines in every category of private demand. The red bars reflect declines in consumer spending, residential investment, business investment in equipment and software, business investment in structures, and exports.
Just imagine how bad that would have looked without cash-for-clunkers.

UPDATE: Keith Hennessey has a great analysis of 2nd Quarter GDP numbers.

Democrats and Famed Beauty Queens Suddenly Concerned about the Economy

Someone better let notorious beauty queen Maxine Waters know that President Obama is already all over creating or saving millions and millions of jobs. Rep. Waters is under the mistaken impression that jobs are suddenly a problem:

“It does not appear that there is any real hope in sight for new job creation and for jobs for the people that need them perhaps the most,” said Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.)

This sudden revelation has inspired a "disparate group of lawmakers" to extend portions of the stimulus to the tune of a mere $88 billion or so. Approximately $65 billion of that total is being sought by Rep. Waters and a few other Democrats to extend unemployment and COBRA benefits set to expire at year's end when the stimulus was sure to have brought the economy back from the abyss.

In the House Republican Representative Patrick Tiberi (R-Ohio) is co-sponsoring a bill with Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.), to extend a carryback provision that allows businesses to carry back losses to past tax returns, and other expiring provisions such as the homebuyer tax credit which has permitted an increase in home sales. A similar effort is being pushed in the Senate by Sens. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) and Olympia Snowe.(R-Maine)

Senator Snowe teamed with several other hard line conservatives giving the votes needed to pass the stimulus legislation that is obviously such a banner success it demands an encore. While I won't profess to have the legislative prowess of the group that is responsible for Stimulus I, I can't help but wonder if it ever crossed any of their brilliant minds to do something really crazy like cancelling some of the pork/porn from the first monstrosity and use it in ways that proved to be, well, stimulating.

Health Care Inspired Video of the Day

Karl has a great post promoted from the Green Room to the front page at Hot Air. Be sure to read the post but the main point is one that can't be missed. Despite some pretty uplifting news for those opposed to ObamaCare recently, the fight is far from over. Karl concludes:

The Democrats may be struggling today, but their current attempt to take over our healthcare system is far from meeting its Waterloo. Stop thinking ABBA. Start thinking The Carpenters.

So without further ado, the video of the day can only be:

Special Note

A great big thank you to William Jacobson of Legal Insurrection for generously linking my blog in the New Blog section on his site. Legal Insurrection is one of my daily reads and I was thrilled to see my new blog linked in that spot. Welcome to any readers who find their way here thanks to the good professor's link.

Have the Stars Aligned for Health Care?

Throughout his full court press strategy to sell the American public on health care reform, President Obama has repeatedly used the phrase the "stars have aligned" implying health care reform is inevitable due to some cosmic glitch beyond our control. The last time the stars were aligned was coincidentally when the last Democratic President had a Democratic Congress, namely Clinton. We all know how that turned out. Have the stars aligned even more perfectly this time for the "One" Barack Obama or is his health care effort every bit as vulnerable as Clinton's?

Certainly things have not been going very smoothly for the President given that cosmic alignment and all. He has made several pretty disastrous mistakes while trying to maneuver legislation through the Congress. Recent polls show the public appetite for reform souring. The question remains, though, whether there was a greater appetite for reform now compared to the mood in the Clinton era.

To answer this question Robert Y. Shapiro and Sara A Arrow of Columbia University compared polling data from 1994 and 2009 and tested the hypothesis there would be greater support for Obama's reform. The results showed the public mood or climate to be roughly the same if not even slightly less favorable than during the Clinton presidency. While several questions showed a more favorable mood those that showed less favorable mood related to increased taxes required to finance the reform:

The questions that yielded less favorable responses concerning health care reform during 2008-2009 than 1993-1994 were ones that asked about paying taxes: to finance national health insurance, to enable everyone to have health insurance, or to guarantee health insurance coverage

There was also a less favorable environment with respect to the belief the country as a whole spent too much on health care and there was a 6 point increase in opposition to guaranteeing health care for all Americans.

The current mood was also compared to that of the Johnson Administration where the most sweeping reforms were passed through Congress with the creation of Medicaid and Medicare. There was one significant difference between the Johnson era and the current political environment:

But what has changed in American politics since that time is that partisan and ideological differences, both in Congress and other leadership arenas and consequently in mass public opinion itself, have widened across the full range of
economic, racial, social values, and foreign policy issues (cf. Bafumi and Shapiro, 2009; Page and Shapiro, 1992, Chapter 7)

The authors' conclude that despite a relatively stable mood over time for change in the health care system, the perils of the Clinton Administration's efforts suggest that President Obama has his work cut out for him.

Hat Tip to Andrew Gelman who provides a thorough review of this study at FiveThirtyEight.

Matthews - It's Starting to Look Like a Redistribution Program

Here's 8 minutes of Chris Matthews that almost makes the tingly legs nonsense of the last year less vomit worthy. Matthews discusses the latest Wall Street Journal/ NBC poll with Chuck Todd and Charlie Cook and laments the President's loss of approval and positively chilly numbers on Health care reform. Cook actually delivers the line most memorable but the first highlight comes at 1:58 where Matthews describes Obama's plan as starting to look like redistribution. He goes on to describe it as taking from those with coverage and medical care and giving it to those who don't. Cook's golden line comes at 3:00 when he declares that over the last 6 weeks people, particularly Independents have lost their confidence in him."

At about 4:00 Cook discusses the latest Congressional Ballot measure on this poll which is much more favorable to Democrats than Rasmussen has been. This poll, as do most other than Rasmussen polls adults without the requirement of likely voters. Cook predicts a possible pick up of 20 seats in the House for Republicans despite the still favorable though sliding numbers for Dems in this poll. Toward the end you will see Cook lament Obama's mistake in not including Republicans in this health care discussion as a serious problem and suggests this has hurt the sale of the reform. All in all, a rare moment of honesty from a few of the biggest Obama cheerleaders in the media.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

What's With the Liberal Obsession With the Public Plan?

Notorious lefty and dubious Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman miscalculated the devotion to single payer health care when he decided to take an informal poll to see how much Canadians in an audience adored their health care system. The results weren't surprising, well at least not to anyone but Krugman:




NewsBusters has the full scoop on Krugman's obsession with government run health care and it's certainly an interesting read. Were Krugman alone in this obsession, I think it would be easy to chalk this up to the ravings of an ivory tower intellect. But Krugman is far from alone. On any given day a health care item posted at Huffington Post can gather a couple thousand comments ranting on the wonders of single payer and government run health care. The same outdated polls and statistically biased studies showing US Health Care ranked 37th in the world are regurgitated ad nauseum if they were some long lost gospel truth the rest of the pagan world refuses to acknowledge. The same is true at the Daily KOS. Scott Limeux argues the entire reform all acknowledge is needed, should be scrapped without the government option included.

I recently was involved in a discussion with a few liberal friends that was almost mind boggling in the level of devotion to a government run plan. No one seems to be able to make the case why this would be better or why this is the only path to health care nirvana. Stuart M. Butler, Ph.D. writes on this obsession in a piece for the Heritage Foundation and notes that none of the 10 million federal employees are clamoring for this plan and we know that Congress has exempted itself from the same wondrous plan. Butler makes the point the underlying intention can not be that the left truly believes such a plan to be the "lean mean competing machine," the proponents claim it to be. Nor can it be the only means to cover those who don't presently qualify for Medicare but have trouble finding adequate coverage in an affordable plan.

Why would a government run Fannie or Freddie Med be any more likely to be successful than the governments ill fated attempt to compete and level the playing field in the mortgage industry? The answer really lies in the belief you will see over and over in comments on forums and in the disingenuous moralistic questioning in the advertisements, "why shouldn't everyone in America receive equal medical care? It is not about getting everyone without care adequate coverage, it is a populist rage against the "Cadillac" coverage some get while others get Medicare. Rather than pull everyone up to the best care possible, liberals would prefer to bring everyone down to equal care no matter how inadequate that might be. I for one believe we should care for the sick, it's the right thing to do. That doesn't mean we have to destroy the most advanced health care system in the world in the process.

CBO Speaks Again

The latest report from the CBO responds to a request from four Republican members of the House Ways and Means Committee including Camp, Ryan, Barton and Kline who asked:

"for additional information about the effects of the specifications regarding health insurance coverage. In particular, you asked about the effects on enrollment in private coverage, in the new public plan, and in Medicaid; the effects on private-sector insurance premiums and the labor market; the longer-term cost of the plan; and the allocation of its net budget impact between outlays and revenues.

This was a pretty complicated request and you know the CBO is a busy place these days. The response is a "doozy" as Donald Marron summarized quite succinctly. As Marron notes, the report makes two key points. The first is that the public plan would not destroy the market for private health insurance which has been a key complaint raised against the public plan. Republicans have argued research by the Lewin Group shows the public plan to have a devastating effect on private insurance. There have been charges the Lewin Group research is biased and should be ignored.

Marron wisely points out that the two use differing assumptions and thus come to differing conclusions. The CBO being a non-partisan body but still an Obama appointee, presents the case most likely favoring the Obama Administrations desire to include a public option while the Lewin Group, being an entity of United Health Insurers presents the case most favorable to the insurance industry position. The truth as always is likely to lie somewhere between the two.

Marron points to two key assumptions that effect the disparate conclusions:

First, CBO assumes “that only firms with 50 or fewer employees would be permitted to buy coverage through the exchanges.” Lewin, in contrast, assumes that all employers would have access to the exchange.

The House plan gives a new governing official authority to decide which employers have acccess to the public plan. As a result both CBO and Lewin Group are left to predict what that governing official will allow five years from now. CBO bases its analysis on the assumption the official will allow employers with up to 50 employees to utilize the public option while Lewin assumes there will be no restriction on the number of employees and all employers will be allowed to use the plan. Marron also points out the CBO lists several reasons why employers might prefer private insurance, chiefly though the the preferable tax treatment of employer provided benefits, whereas Lewin places less weight on these other benefits.

The second overall key point from CBO is crushing, in fact Keith Hennessey calls this point as TKO. Hennessey's conclusion in a nutshell, "the proposed new health spending would grow faster than the proposed new income tax increases, the House health bill would increase the long-term deficit." The President has said on several occasions he would not sign legislation that increased the deficit in the short or long term. Gamer over if you assume the President made that promise based on his entire rationale for health care reform to begin with. Read Hennessey's full post to appreciate how far off the mark the House legislation actually is, but as a teaser I will post his graph showing just how devastating the CBO long term projections of the effect of the legislation on the budget and deficits:


So while you will see headlines like this Democrats cite CBO to boost healthcare case suggesting the latest CBO was a boon to the case for the House legislation, the more significant finding of the CBO is buried in the second to the last line of the article:

The latest CBO analysis also said the reform proposal would increase budget deficits even though a proposed new tax on millionaires would help cover costs over the next decade.

There is no squaring that finding with these words from the President:

Make no mistake: the cost of our health care is a threat to our economy. It is an escalating burden on our families and businesses. It is a ticking time-bomb for the federal budget. And it is unsustainable for the United States of America.

We were fooled once by such an argument back in January before the stimulus was passed, shame on us. Fool us twice, well, in a word "Waterloo."

RNC Ad Targets 60 Vulnerable Dems in 2010

Via CQ Politics the ad is scheduled to run in 33 states and will target Democratic members of the House considered to be at least somewhat vulnerable in 2010 midterms elections. Despite CQ Politics listing 41 of the 60 Dems targeted at least somewhat vulnerable, it's worth taking a look at their early shapeup of the 2010 House elections. It doesn't appear CQ Politics views any of the 60 vulnerable as they have projected a three seat pickup for the Dems in the House. While I won't suggest the GOP is a shoe in to take back the House, I am a bit more optimistic than the folks at CQ.

Not-So-Subtle Advice for Birthers

Ed Morrissey at Hot Air has a post in reference to a Politico piece on "birthers." Minnesota Representative Peterson(D)complains he can't talk to his constituents because they are all crazy or something. Notwithstanding Peterson's ridiculous claim, Ed Morrissey makes a great point about the sudden emergence of the birthers as fodder for the MSM who would like to paint the GOP as a bunch of "loons:"

On the overall Birther issue, it’s becoming a problem for Republicans. We have people like Chris Matthews helping to fuel it, not because Matthews has objective journalistic instincts, but because he knows he can make all Republicans look like loons — and encourage more Birthers to get vocal. Just when we need all the credibility we can muster to fight against ObamaCare and cap-and-tax, it’s getting sapped by the conspiracy theorists.

Ed is completely right, this is no time to feed the MSM machine to paint the GOP as crazy, especially as this diversion is entirely intended to create a distraction from Obama's falling polls and health care plan that is on the ropes to put it mildly. For those who wish to help Matthews and his journalistic ilk, here is my advice:

CBO Has Spoken - What's Next in Health Care?

Just heard an NBC news report this morning that there will be no vote in either the House or Senate before the August recess. Nancy Pelosi is reportedly going to resume negotiations in the House Energy and Commerce Committee. This leaves HR 3200 hanging out there in the month of August like a pinata. The bill, written in haste, leaves plenty for special interest groups to whack away at over the summer recess. House representatives are likely to get an earful from their constituents over some of the more controversial aspects of the legislation.

Whether this criticism will result in legislation that actually does bend the costs downward while attempting to cover a greater number of people with quality health insurance, seems not very likely. Take for example the recent CBO report declaring the IMAC an ineffective means of bending back costs which was the President's stated goal. Jonathan Cohn writes in "The Treatment" blog at "The New Republic," there are three options open in light of the CBO reports available to Democratic leadership. The first is to actually revise IMAC according to the CBO points, which Cohn suggests is the position the Obama Administration seems to prefer. The second which Cohn advocates is to proceed despite CBO's reports as the legislation pays for itself over the next decade and may result in savings. Cohn notes that it wouldn't be the first time CBO gets the analysis wrong. The third option is to kill reform altogether.

It seems the Democratic leadership have opted to go with option number two. Hot Air cites a report in The Hill:

Democrats are going to seek to convince skeptics that the healthcare overhaul has other provisions, such as prevention and wellness measures, that will provide benefits and save money, a House leadership aide told The Hill on Sunday.

In his analysis of the repercussions of the latest CBO report, Keith Hennessey quotes a friend, “At some point the advocates of this reform package need to realize that the only way to cut spending is to cut spending.” Unfortunately, it looks like the reform advocates are not likely to come to that realization any time soon, if ever. Perhaps if the President's poll numbers continue to drop as the Administration and Democratic Congress focus on health care legislation while the public struggles with the reality of massive unemployment and a brutal economy, Congress will get the message to stop playing around with smoke and mirror reform and either created meaningful reform or devote their attention to the economy. Judging from the reaction to the CBO reports, however,, it seems more likely Congress and the Administration consider all criticism to be coming from the man behind the curtain rather than the Great and Powerful Oz, which doesn't bode well for meaningful reform or the American people.

Greg Mankiw on Unicorn Dust and Pixie Wings

Harvard Economics Prof Greg Mankiw posted a comment on his blog yesterday in regard to the latest report that the Independent Medicare Advisory Board IMAC would not result in any significant savings for health care in the near or long term. His blog post titled "Unicorn Dust and Pixie Wings," ends with this rather snarky conclusion:

"Damn that CBO! They keep killing all these great ideas with, like, analysis and numbers and all that stuff. Everything would work out just fine if only they would close their eyes, click their heels together three times, and say, "There is no policy like reform...there is no policy like reform...."

Looks like I picked a good week to start a blog with a "Ruby Slippers" theme.

Latest Polls Show Decline in Support Post Press Conference

UPDATE- Zogby's latest poll Obama's approval at 48%. HatTip to Hot Air. Zogby polls likely voters and in this poll 3500 likely voters were included in the study. Though Zogby is often thought to skew left, the numbers here concur with Rasmussen often thought to be a right leaning pollster. Interesting they are in agreement.


Today's Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll makes the third consecutive day Obama's approval nummber was below 50% meaning more disapprove than approve. More importantly the President's disapproval of 51% is now 40% strongly disapprove and 11% somewhat disapprove. Those that strongly disapprove is up by 5% points since the press conference this week. Of those who approve 29% strongly approve and 20% somewhat approve. This makes the passion index at a new high level of -11.
Also of note, the President is now viewed as politically liberal by 76% of the public. The President also received generally low approval numbers for the answer he gave to the question relating to the Harvard professor recently arrested. There was a strong divide though between white and African American respondents. Generally though the President's approval has suffered since his press conference on Wednesday night. The full impact of that conference should be rolled into the numbers by Tuesday.

Obama Approval Falls Below 50%

Poll isn't currently updated on Rasmussen's site. Be sure to check as it is likely to be updated soon. This is a very big plunge in a young Presidency. Rasmussen only polls likely voters and has a very high rate of accuracy, I believe they were near dead on in the 2008 election which is proof their polling is sound. Polls that show approval near 55% are not polling likely voters and often have skewed populations which can only lead to a skewed result. I suspect the number may pull up a bit over the weekend, you often get a slightly different group than during the work week.

Autopsying Health Care Reform Mismanagement

Kimberly Strassel has a good piece in today's WSJ, analyzing the strategic missteps that led to the Obama administration's failure to navigate "high stakes" legislation into law. Despite spin from the White House and the Hill, missing the August deadline is a severe setback to the signature reform promised by the President. That he had a Democratic Congress with huge majorities at his disposal, the failure is all the more glaring.

Strassell, hits all the major points from the growing evidence the "stimulus" was not working as intended despite its enormous costs and even larger promises. The glad handing and crowing of the "don't waste a crisis" mantra struck me, honestly, of pirates raiding a newly conquered village. That this monstrosity of political plunder is at the heart of the eroding polls that began the unraveling of support for health care reform seems most appropriate.

Far from having learned a lesson after unleashing Nancy Pelosi et al to craft stimulus law, Strassel notes leaving this group to define the signature piece of legislation without guidance or parameters was a drastic mistake. Clearly the Obama administration was trying to avoid the micromanaging that led to the failure to pass health care reform in the Clinton years. Micromanaging is one thing, leaving this group to their own devices is suicidal.

While there may have been too little management, Obama's campaign promises and subsequent statements left options that would be useful in reaching consensus off the table. This was a major hurdle for Max Baucus in Finance as the tax exclusion on benefits was ridiculed by the campaign against John McCain:

Yet having slammed John McCain for that idea, the White House vetoed the compromise, derailing an agreement. “The President is not helping us,” bluntly stated Mr. Baucus. “He does not want [that tax]. That’s making it difficult.”

Reaching consensus was made even more difficult by allowing Nancy Pelosi to plow ahead with a vote on Cap and trade. Blue Dogs and fiscal conservative Dems were corralled to vote for controversial legislation with a variety of carrots and sticks, well a lot of carrots and a lot of sticks actually. After putting their necks on the line for a vote, the legislation will remain parked in the Senate possibly a very long time. The young representatives from largely right leaning districts were greeted with outrage when they returned home to their districts. This group was not likely to stick their necks on the line again especially since the President's approval began unraveling. Dick Morris notes:

When a president loses the approval of the majority of the voters and polls reflect that his ratings have fallen substantially below 50 percent, he loses his power. In this context, polls are like parliamentary votes of no confidence in European systems. While the government does not fall if it loses in the polling, it limps on until either its ratings improve or it is voted out of office at the next election.

Karl Rove points out in polls of adults Obama's numbers note sharp declines in support and suggests the numbers presage even further decline:

What many people missed is that those who strongly disapprove of the president’s approach on health care now outnumber those who strongly approve by 33% to 25%. That presages further decline. Already, 49% of independents disapprove of the president’s approach, up from 30% in April, a staggering shift in 11 weeks.

In short, what may have been the most serious misstep was the administration was misreading the public mood for a massive change in their health care particularly at a time of so much economic turmoil. The mood was ignored and once it was clear the deep slide was underway, there was too much spin, false deadlines and a growing sense of distrust for more promises and too few results. The public was paying attention and using their common sense as Peggy Noonan suggests:

His news conference the other night was bad. He was filibustery and spinny and gave long and largely unfollowable answers that seemed aimed at limiting the number of questions asked and running out the clock. You don’t do that when you’re fully confident. Far more seriously, he didn’t seem to be telling the truth. We need to create a new national health-care program in order to cut down on government spending? Who would believe that? Would anybody?

I haven't agreed with Peggy Noonan in a while but here she is dead on, nobody was buying the spin and distorted logic. Of course, political moods can change and we are far from out of the woods with health care or the ideological agenda of this administration, this is no time to let down our guard.

Pelosi & Reid Sound Retreat - DNC Runs Straw Man Ad

Hot Air has the full scoop on the call for retreat from Reid and Pelosi on a vote for health care legislation before the August recess. Reid sounded the first call for retreat, drew the ire of the liberal and progressive crew on Twitter. Markos Moulitsas, founder of Daily KOS, called attention to a growing hashtag on Twitter targeting Reid:

The #harryreid tag is hilarious today.

While Reid may be the fall guy, there was nothing to prevent Speaker Pelosi from taking her legislation to the floor for a vote, unless of course shedoesn't have the votes. This would, of course, completely contradict Pelosi's statement yesterday that she did have the votes. Mmm, the Speaker wouldn't lie about that would she? Regardless, Reid is going to be the scapegoat among Democrats, well at least privately.

Publicly, the following DNC ad gives a taste of who they will continue to paint as boogeyman holding up health care reform. This straw man ad makes the ridiculous argument that those who oppose a complete socialization of our health care industry must, of course, prefer to do nothing. In Democratic simplistic minds there are only two choices, complete take over or do nothing.

Included among those the DNC accuses of preferring to do nothing are Michael Steele, Jim DeMint and Rush Limbaugh. Last I checked Limbaugh had absolutely no legislative authority, being an entertainer and all. Whatever, this is all about leaving an impression in the mind of the public. At this point, I think the public might be grateful that some were slowing down the Obama agenda, but that's just me.



The DNC ad is a straw man and "patently false" to quote Senator DeMint. There are several proposals for health care reform drafted by Republicans as I have listed before. Of course the DNC would never run ads letting the American people know that there are Republican alternatives, that would be giving a clear picture instead of obfuscating reform that is of dire necessity according to their own rhetoric.

Fact Check: Obama's Press Conference July 22, 2009

Well, the reviews are in, and they aren't very good. It's tough to call an Obama Presser a success when even Chris Matthews and Ed Schultz have nothing good to say. Matthews chalked Obama's inability to make the case for completely overhauling the health care industry to the lateness of the hour. Hello, it was 8 PM, not much of an excuse.

Perhaps if Matthews was a bit more thorough in his analysis of the unimpressive presser, he would note the numerous ways the President's rhetoric failed to match with the proposals currently coming out of the House and Senate. The AP does a pretty thorough review and found a number of the President's statements in opposition to the facts. One of the most glaring disconnects came when the President claimed:

"You haven't seen me out there blaming the Republicans."

Perhaps he was unaware that he blamed Republicans in his own opening statement:

I've heard that one Republican strategist told his party that, even they may want to compromise, it's better politics to "go for the kill," another Republican senator that defeating health reform is about "breaking" me.

Clearly this was a reference to Senator DeMint's Waterloo statement that has taken center stage in Obama's efforts to find a face to tie with the problems plaguing health care. Senator DeMint has issued a statement, in response to a DNC proposed attack ads scheduled to run in SC and national television. The ad alleges that Senator DeMint has offered "no plan at all" a claim which Senator DeMint describes as "patently false." The statement includes numerous links to the Senator's most recent health care proposals as well as a list of previous legislation he proposed including a few voted against by then Senator Obama.

In The GOP Live Response many claims made by the President were refuted with links to outside sources were supplied to back up the GOP assertions. The President repeated his claim that the government will not get between patient and doctor. Live Response posted this response:

House Dems' Bill Creates New Czar That Will Push Government-Run Health Insurance. "The health choices commissioner would head an independent agency, as envisioned in the 800-page draft bill released by House Democratic leaders. The Health Choices Administration would regulate a revamped insurance marketplace and be expected to deliver Obama's promise of affordable coverage for all ... The commissioner and the new agency would run a kind of national purchasing pool through which individuals and small businesses could pick medical coverage from private plans and a government-sponsored alternative." (Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar, "Need For Federal Insurance Czar Is Questioned," The Associated Press, 7/7/09)

Jake Tapper of ABC asked whether the American people would be required to make additional sacrifices aside from the proposed surtax on the wealthiest taxpayers. The President denied there would be sacrifices which completely belies the proposals contained in the House bill HR 3200. In fact the President claimed:

They're going to have to give up paying for things that don't make them healthier. And I -- speaking as an American, I think that's the kind of change you want.

GOP Live Response also noted there were taxes under consideration:

House Democrats Have “Lots Of Potential Targets For Higher Taxes” Apart From Deduction Limiting. “House Democrats have lots of potential targets for higher taxes as they aim to expand health care coverage to reach the roughly 50 million that experts say are uninsured. Also under consideration are higher alcohol taxes, increases to the Medicare payroll tax and a value-added tax, a sort of national sales tax, of up to 1.5 percent or more ... The [other] tax options include: increasing the price of soda and other sugary drinks by 10 cents a can, applying a potential 2 percent income tax increase to single taxpayers earning more than $200,000 a year and households earning more than $250,000, a new employer payroll tax could target 3 percent of employers' health care expenditures, taxing employer-provided health insurance benefits above certain levels ... House Democrats planned to unveil a draft of their sweeping health care bill Friday ... The draft, being released at a news conference ... was not expected to mention the potentially unpopular tax options.” (Erica Werner, "House Eyes New Taxes As Senators Pare Health Bill," The Associated Press, 6/19/09)

As the Senate Finance Committee has not finalized any of their planning, potential sources for funding the new entitlement are in flux. Clearly this was a problem for the President as he took center stage in prime time television to sell health care reform that was missing a few key ingredients, those being a finished plan and a means to pay for it.

Health Care Inspired Video of the Day

If you've had a chance to get your Strawman Bingo card there can be only one song that comes to mind for Video of the Day...



If your Bingo card fills up fast, you might want to take a look at Keith Hennessey's 20 Questions for the press to ask tonight. Keep track of how many get asked. It's always a possibility we get more questions about how the President keeps himself so focused or wonders about his most inspirational moments as President, yuck.

Strawman Bingo

Just saw this at NRO Senate Republicans SRCC put together Strawman Bingo for those who wish to play along while watching the umpteenth presser by the President tonight. If he only had a brain, he'd skip this continued full court press, it just doesn't seem to be working for him.

Clicking Heels in PA - Specter & Toomey in Deadheat

Via PA Watercooler Quinnipiac released a poll this morning showing Specter leading Toomey by an insignificant 1 point:

A Quinnipiac survey released this morning found Specter leading Toomey by a statistically insignificant one point in a general election matchup, 45 percent to 44 percent. More troubling for Specter, a near-majority of voters say he doesn’t deserve reelection, according to the poll.

As PA Watercooler wisely notes, "Specter is the perfect illustration of what is wrong with our political system today." Benedict Arlen could care less about loyalty, he is entirely about getting himself re-elected. Replacing Specter with a strong conservative like Pat Toomey seems like the perfect medicine to what ails career pols like Arlen, send them home.

Dems Start to Eat their Own

Dan Gerstein makes the case in Forbes that Pelosi's divisive strategies and involvement in crafting the disastrous stimulus is to blame for wrecking Obama's agenda. His prescription for the failing Obama agenda:

Overreaching can be a very dangerous thing in our politics--especially when the head of your party got elected running against it. And sometimes the only solution to overreaching is, well, overthrowing.

CNN offers up the Blame Obama argument citing claims congressional Democrats being "baffled" and "frustrated" by the President's lack of leadership on policy points:

“We appreciate the rhetoric and his willingness to ratchet up the pressure but what most Democrats on the Hill are looking for is for the president to weigh in and make decisions on outstanding issues. Instead of sending out his people and saying the president isn’t ruling anything out, members would like a little bit of clarity on what he would support – especially on how to pay for his health reform bill,” a senior Democratic congressional source tells CNN.

CNN also notes some blame is being directed at the Senate negotiators, who have "repeatedly missed deadlines." While negotiators, presumably Baucus et al on Finance became targets in the Senate, Blue Dog congressional representatives get the lion share of blame from the lefty blogs and are massive targets in the comments at KOS and Huffington Post.

So while it is rather amusing to watch the Dems form a circular firing squad, the question remains who is most to blame for failing to propose and pass the much promised health care reform, particularly since the Dems enjoy huge majorities in both the House and Senate? Laura Meckler, Jonathan Weisman and Gerald F. Seib in a piece for The Wall Street Journals seem to suggest the buck stops at Obama's door. While the Dem leadership would like to lay blame at the Republican's efforts to effectively undermine efforts at reform, even the most partisan pundits have difficulty bolstering that claim. James Carville is quoted on this point stating:

"President Obama is ratcheting up the stakes too," said James Carville, a veteran of former President Bill Clinton's failed effort to retool health care in 1993-94. "He's certainly not talking them down. And they're pretty big. They win this health-care thing, and they get some decent kind of evidence of [an economic] recovery, they might be in pretty good shape this time next year. But if they lose this, the Republicans understand the stakes too. Nobody is being very coy about it."

Rather than tone the stakes down, Obama is preparing to hold yet another prime time presser this evening. Despite a 10 day full court press, the President appears to be losing ground. Waterloo? It sure looks like it.

Health Care Inspired Video of the Day

Today's health care inspired video comes from Senator Jim DeMint, who inspired yesterday's choice "Waterloo" by ABBA. In a statement to the Washington Examiner's Amanda Carpenter, Senator DeMint acknowledges the truth behind Obama's decision to make his Waterloo comment central in his health care reform campaign:

"The biggest obstacles to President Obama’s $2 trillion government takeover of health care are Democrats, the American people, and the facts,” he said in a statement provided by his office to the Washington Times. “And after the failed stimulus that wasted money as millions of jobs have been lost, many Democrats know their constituents won't be fooled again."

Naturally, the health care musical tribute of the day is ............. (drum roll)

Bloggers enlisted in Conference Call

Via Huff Po President Obama has enlisted the support of bloggers as part of his "all Obama-all the time" strategy on healthcare. In an invitation only conference call the President explained how he saw the bloggers playing a role in keeping the pressure on to pass healthcare reform legislation:

"I know the blogs are best at debunking myths that can slip through a lot of the traditional media outlets," he said. "And that is why you are going to play such an important role in our success in the weeks to come."

Yes, yes you read that right, he believes the bloggers are best at debunking myths.
Perhaps we should take a stroll down memory lane and revisit the tremendous strength of the blogs in myth debunking. Who can forget the crack reporting at Mudflats with the mysterious Anne Kilkenny charging Palin with book bannning? A fine example of the Palin refuses to fund rape kits because they contain "emergency contraception" myth can be seen at Democratic Underground. From LA Progressive we had an example of Palin's reported "Sambo" racist comment. More from Mudflats, who were "all Palin - all the time," we see an example of the Bristol is Trig's mother scandal that spread like a cold sore at college kegger. A google search reveals pages of headlines such as "Who is the Mother of Trig Paxon Van Palin?" Though Daily KOS seems to have been busy since then, scrubbing their archives of this sad excuse for reporting, a certain famous blogger, Andrew aka "We're all obstetricians now" Sullivan is still investigating this scandal. Still more "debunking" from Mudflats, we had the Palin had an affair with Tod's business partner scandal.

KOS has a few really remarkable myths such as Palin thinks Pledge written by Founding Fathers. My personal favorite from KOS though, has to be the rationale for publishing an obviously photoshopped pic of Palin in a bikini because,

"it communicates a certain kind of truth about the candidate even though it is a fake foto, in the way that fiction often can over non-fiction."

Mmmm yes, who can argue with that logic?

Well, I personally feel the President has placed his faith in the right crew of bloggers to debunk all those nasty myths likely to be spread by the right wingers who just want to kick old ladies and deny anyone who isn't rich medical care. We are mean like that. To set the tone the President trotted out his famous straw man argument,

The status quo is unacceptable... People who would defend doing nothing are defending the indefensible."

That's us, the defenders-of-the-indefensible, the ones who would rather do nothing than, oh say, passing legislation that effects upwards of 15% of the GDP while it fails to correct the problems it is supposed to address. To make sure we don't get away with this dastardly plan, Obama reiterates his threat to ram it through in reconciliation. Good thing he dropped all those Chicago style negotiating techniques when he moved to the White House. For the record though, there are plenty of health care reform proposals put together by the do-nothing crew including Senator DeMint, Paul Ryan, the bipartisan Wyden-Bennet Healthy Americans Act as well as the crucial bipartisan efforts of Baucus and Grassley on the Senate Finance Committee. Keith Hennessey, who has suggested his own reform, also debunks the reconciliation threat here and here, though it is possible Mr. Hennessey underestimates the determination of this administration who believes that some of the above-mentioned bloggers will be valuable in helping to "debunk myths" and spread the truth about the wonders of Obamacare.

Healthcare Word of the Day- Waterloo

Well polls are crashing all around Obama and the August recess creeps ever-closer threatening the passage of a Healthcare Reform before the House and Senate skip town for vacation after voting for yet another bill they refuse to read. Still Obama refuses to surrender and rather than make his case to the American people or explain significant aspect of his plan, Obama chooses to fight a straw man in Senator DeMint's comment that healthcare could be Obama's Waterloo. To be fair, it would be hard for him to explain the proposed reform since no one seems to agree what that might look like. Hot Air has Senator DeMint's response to Obama which pretty much calls Obama's reform and sales pitch for the Bull it is.

Bill Kristol mentioned tonight DeMint's comment was a mistake, noting the old adage, "when the opposition is busy digging a hole, get out of their way and let them keep digging. He has a point, though it was enjoyable to see DeMint spell it all out, we haven't seen too much of that from the GOP lately. So I have had the Abba song stuck in my head all day and thought I would pass that along for your enjoyment.

More Polls- Smoke em if you got em

WaPo/ABC released a new poll showing declining support for Obama on key issues particularly health care where his numbers dipped below 50% for the first time. The Washington Post reports that support has slipped most noticeably among Independents and among conservative Democrats.

Though this poll is somewhat consistent with Rasmussen and Zogby on healthcare, it is notable as WaPO/ABC polls Dems and Independents in much higher numbers than Republicans. There are glaring inconsistencies between the polls, however. Zogby shows Americans opposing the House bill by a 50-42 margin. WaPo/ABC shows 54% approving of the House measures. Rasmussen shows likely voters opposing a public option 50 to 35%.

It's going to be a long week as Obama declares he will go all out to get his message to the public this week including a recently scheduled news conference on Wednesday,
continuing interviews beginning on Monday to begin driving his message. He will utilize Twitter and other online media venues in order to urge the public to ramp up pressure on Congress to pass legislation before the August break. The Washington Post staff writers Michael D. Shear and Shailagh Murray describe this phase of the legislative strategy as all Obama, all the time. I am grateful they explained that, otherwise I think we might not be able to distinguish this weeks all Obama from the rest of the previous 6 months. It's going to be another long week.

Declining Approval Leads to "Interesting Developments" on the Hill

Newest Rasmussen
daily tracking poll shows Obama's support continuing to decline. Total approval including those who strongly support (30%) along with those who somewhat support 21% give him a 51% approval vs. 49% total disapproval. Those who strongly disapprove 37% outweigh those who strongly approve giving him a -7 on Rasmussen's approval index.

Obama's declining approval numbers appear to be largely tied to the economy and began a sharp decline with the June unemployment figures. Concern over declining approval is likely fueling the urgency to pass health care reform before the August recess. Though Obama has declared he was willing to spend all his political capital in order to pass health care legislation this year, his dwindling political capital has not escaped the notice of Congressional delegates on both sides of the aisle. The Hill reports a statement by Rep. Charles Boustany (R-La.), "There's an interesting development occurring behind the scenes, wherein moderate Democrats — so-called "Blue Dog" Democrats — and business-friendly new Democrats are actually starting to have conversations with us to build a coalition from the center outward, to actually really come up with substantive and well-founded healthcare reform." The Hill notes such a coalition threatens to effectively remove Democrats from the driver's seat on health care reform.

It is also quite plausible that "Blue Dog" Democrats would like to put some distance between the very liberal House health care reform package containing controversial proposals such as a mandatory counseling requirement to assist medicare patients in end of life treatment decisions (p. 438). So much for the no one between you and your doctor claim. As the August deadline looks increasingly doubtful, elements of this reform are likely to hang like the Sword of Damocles threatening guilt by mere association.

Yay, First Post !

This video has certainly gotten a bit of attention this evening and rightly so. Posted in the infamous Quote of the Day at Hot Air, without need for further description or elaboration, this 1961 recording of then private citizen Ronald Reagan speaks out against socialized medicine. It seems as timely now as it was then.